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Andrew Mercer
awmercer.bsky.social
did:plc:dmjuau7irhg2lg72ty6sofpa
Look, polls have biases. But slso, the MOE for a subgroup of n=96 is about +/- 10 points. Add in the design effect, it’s +/- 13 points. For the vote margin it’s +/- 26. For the change in the margin since the last poll, it’s about +/- 50 points. That’s just accounting for random sanpling.
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2024-09-28T15:43:41.735Z