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benjamintodd.bsky.social
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5/ Samotsvety are a team of some of the most elite forecasters out there, who also know more about AGI.
In 2023, they gave shorter estimates: 25% by 2029.
This was also down vs. their 2022 forecast.
But unfortunately this still used the terrible Metaculus definition.
2025-04-09T22:03:37.598Z