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Brendan Nyhan
brendannyhan.bsky.social
did:plc:clxs5bimkdx2zvxzrbs6v3pw
The idea that Grimmer, Knox & Westwood "can't model" is hilarious. And Silver's "model" is a black box. Who knows what's going on in there? How can we evaluate it?
At same time, "we don't have a well-calibrated model of who wins" != there is no info in polls that should move your prior from p=.5
2024-09-04T00:55:06.050Z