Host @ Market Misbehavior | President @ Sierra Alpha Research | Former StockCharts-Fidelity-Bloomberg | 🎺 Musician 🎶 | Trying not to take life too seriously 🤪 | For educational purposes only https://marketmisbehavior.com/blueskyhttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvsnlkzb4g2t#NAAIM Exposure Index down to 72% this week, down from over 100% just three weeks ago. Conclusion? Money managers in this survey have taken their foot off the accelerator, and are now stepping on the brakes.18 Sep 2026 17:04 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvsnlkzb4g2thttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvskdu55sh2gPretty major shift this week in the #AAII survey, with only 29% bulls compared to 53% bears. Highest bearish reading since the March 2026 market low, and the widest spread of Bears-Bulls since April 2025!18 Sep 2026 16:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvskdu55sh2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvsjoezhg32tNow less than 30% of $SPX members remaining above their 50-day moving averages. Last time that happened? Mid-March 2026, a couple weeks before the low. 🤔18 Sep 2026 15:54 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvsjoezhg32thttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvqwc5f6hn2iYesterday: S&P 500 breaks 7600. Today: S&P reclaims 7600, tech surges, VIX drops below 16. The lesson? One-day breakdowns need confirmation. New CHART THIS is up now: youtu.be/gDhKId0lvD0 https://youtu.be/gDhKId0lvD018 Sep 2026 00:34 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvqwc5f6hn2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvmctth37u26Not everything is breaking down! Energy stocks continue to make new highs, and cybersecurity is showing some impressive relative strength. In the new CHART THIS, I break down the $SPX warning signs AND the charts that are still working. Watch here: youtu.be/S-yJF69TGJg https://youtu.be/S-yJF69TGJg16 Sep 2026 04:35 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvmctth37u26https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvl7npjwqi2kHow bullish do I want to be on $NVDA is the stock is unable to hold support at the 50-day MA? If $NVDA pushed down once again to its 200-day, would I anticipate another bounce higher?15 Sep 2026 18:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvl7npjwqi2khttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvl46vp45r2pYou could consider the chart of #gold as a potential head and shoulders top, or perhaps just featuring a key support range around 4300. If you assume the latter, then this week's action could be breaking below our "line in the sand". $GLD15 Sep 2026 17:04 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvl46vp45r2phttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvkyxpr2im2tI learned a long time ago that while equity investors tend to be focused on potential gains, bond investors are often way better at detecting potential risks. So when the $MOVE index starts to spike higher before the $VIX does, that means someone somewhere is seeing something...15 Sep 2026 16:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvkyxpr2im2thttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvkxicjxzm2y$SPX once again testing the lower end of a potential bull flag pattern. How bullish do I want to be if the chart breaks below clear support?...15 Sep 2026 15:39 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvkxicjxzm2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvj6hl5lz32rThe S&P 500 is sitting at a pretty fascinating decision point. 7600 remains my line in the sand, while a break above ~7720 would confirm the potential bull flag. The problem? Semiconductors $SMH are moving in the wrong direction! New CHART THIS is up now: youtu.be/RJbMOsE1kLU https://youtu.be/RJbMOsE1kLU14 Sep 2026 22:39 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvj6hl5lz32rhttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mviiiav4j723Our Market Trend Model, based on weekly $SPX data, turned negative on the short-term time frame for the 4th time since the March 2026 market low. Previous three occurrences resulted in a very buyable dip for $SPY. This time is different?.....14 Sep 2026 16:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mviiiav4j723https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mviezl6zu42g$SPX once again testing our "line in the sand" support at 7600. So far, going with the classic "bend don't break" philosophy, but AI weakness could absolutely push this chart lower. Would a breakdown here set us up for a classic Q4 rally?14 Sep 2026 15:04 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mviezl6zu42ghttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvidei2tjd2pTen Year Treasury Yield $TNX at its highest level since 2007? Probably nothing... 👀14 Sep 2026 14:34 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvidei2tjd2phttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvbazqursd2gWe'll see where the close ends up... but crude oil is most likely flashing a dark cloud cover candle pattern, implying short-term weakness going into next week. This bearish reversal pattern is popping up as crude is in the overbought condition after this week's strong rally.11 Sep 2026 19:04 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvbazqursd2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mvb5ryxkfx2eLooks like we'll finish the week with around 40% of $SPX members above their 50-day moving average. Friday's been the only decent breadth day this week, but the trend in these indicators is the biggest concern here, speaking to internal weakness going into next week!11 Sep 2026 18:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvb5ryxkfx2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3muzfoottwf2iZscaler $ZS had a pretty compelling setup going into earnings last week... higher low and a retest of major resistance around $190, where I set a price alert. Unfortunately that price alert was never triggered, and now $ZS has dropped back below the crucial 200-day MA. 📉08 Sep 2026 16:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3muzfoottwf2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3muzep27fnj2r$SPCX is finally pushing above its opening day open at $150. A confirmed move above this initial trade could imply an accumulation phase for this long awaited IPO, and would also mean that investors that bought on the first day of trading may actually be sitting on a paper profit! 📈👀08 Sep 2026 15:48 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3muzep27fnj2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mupkjkernq2g$ZS seems like an "ok" chart until and unless it can push above resistance at $190. "Bullish charts don't just trade TO resistance, but THROUGH resistance."04 Sep 2026 18:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mupkjkernq2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3muph2qdk3h2wTesla $TSLA following yesterday's banger of a breakout with a major pullback. Lack of upside follow-through implies a false breakout, until and unless $TSLA can push back above $370 on stronger momentum.04 Sep 2026 17:04 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3muph2qdk3h2whttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mupdsyivqu2pBulls are up to 40% in the #AAII survey. Not overwhelmingly bullish, but more middle-of-the-road reading for a bull market phase. Only 2% difference between bulls and bears suggests a mixed bag of sentiment!04 Sep 2026 16:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mupdsyivqu2phttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mupcmh7j6e2pWhich scenario plays out for $QQQ? We've laid out four scenarios between now and mid-October, from the super bullish to the super bearish. Watch the four scenarios, vote for the one you see as most likely and explain your thinking, then explore what others have voted! 📈📉🤔 youtu.be/TusZu0d_mRk04 Sep 2026 15:44 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mupcmh7j6e2phttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mun22o2j6z25All the Musk names are rallying this morning, and $SPCX is dangerously close to breaking above the opening day price $150. This IPO has followed a classic pattern: initial spike higher, big drop lower, then a consolidation around an equilibrium price. $SPCX > 150 would imply something new!03 Sep 2026 18:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mun22o2j6z25https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mumwlrt2yw2pI'll bucket this under "early warning, but not enough to get too anxious about." While the $VIX remains safely in the mid-teens, the $MOVE index (the VIX for bonds) is pushing higher. Market pricing in bigger swings for bonds probably not a great sign for risk assets.03 Sep 2026 17:04 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mumwlrt2yw2phttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mumte3pgid2z"A healthy bull market is validated by an expansion in new 52-week highs." Strong uptrends are usually fueled by a broad advance, where early leadership names are making new highs before the major indexes. Not the case here in September 2026! $SPX $QQQ03 Sep 2026 16:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mumte3pgid2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mumq7loro42gI find the "bend don't break" mentality to be slightly annoying in sports, because it sure feels like my team is giving up ground when they don't need to! But it's a great metaphor for the S&P 500, pulling back in recent weeks yet still holding a key support range.03 Sep 2026 15:09 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mumq7loro42ghttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mumfwwbkbl2zHow bullish do I want to be on $GOOG $GOOGL if and when it confirms a break below the 200-day moving average?..... 📉03 Sep 2026 12:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mumfwwbkbl2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mukmtgjyvh2d#Gold holding major support based on 200-day moving average and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Below $4220 would be a bearish confirmation, but price stability and RSI > 40 suggests strength here.02 Sep 2026 19:04 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mukmtgjyvh2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mukjlq34os25The equal-weight $SPX $RSP is the only one to have made new highs every month since March. $SPY missed ATH in July, and $QQQ hasn't made a new high since early June! #leadershiprotationisreal02 Sep 2026 18:06 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mukjlq34os25https://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3mukh5ttb7p2iChaikin Money Flow has now turned bearish for $SPY, implying that there is more distribution than accumulation as measured by daily volume readings. Strongest accumulation period was April, and volume very much in line with previous market pullbacks.02 Sep 2026 17:22 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mukh5ttb7p2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/dkellercmt.bsky.social/post/3muhvnxqbdb2rIndustrials $XLI are on the struggle bus from a technical perspective, but some key names are pounding out some serious outperformance. Deere $DE stands out with a push above Feb ATH on improving momentum and relative strength. New highs are bullish!01 Sep 2026 17:04 +0000at://did:plc:2bzccceijnwtrsg7v7lc3ey2/app.bsky.feed.post/3muhvnxqbdb2r