Chief Economist, KPMG, opinions my ownhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mlecl3cens2qHere are my thoughts from my international meetings. Intense. Chatham House Rules but have distilled into top 10. This month, Bowie and Queen’s song “Under Pressure” fit the bill. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/may-2026-economic-compass.html08 May 2026 17:57 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlecl3cens2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mldwty6w222eMy full take on the mixed signals in the labor market report. Suffice it to say that workers have reason to feel anxious, despite upside surprise in payroll employment. The news didn’t extend to the household survey, which shed jobs AGAIN & showed stress under the hood.08 May 2026 14:27 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mldwty6w222ehttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3ml4btyx5cs2qComing up on CNN International to talk the conflict in the Middle East and ripple effects for the US and global economy.05 May 2026 13:23 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4btyx5cs2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mkzhaz3mas2mBeen abroad in meetings. There was an undercurrent to them this year. (More of a riptide) Collecting my thoughts on what I can share. Still processing & recovering from the exhaustion of the changes we are enduring.04 May 2026 10:22 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkzhaz3mas2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mkntgymnoc2rHawks squawk amidst “assaults” The Federal Reserve stayed on the sidelines with rates held in the 3.25% to 3.5% range. The statement underscored the uncertainty regarding “developments in the Middle East.”29 Apr 2026 19:28 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkntgymnoc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mkib2bzgxc2iFarm bankruptcies soared. Tariffs, retaliation, drought conditions emerging and now oil - fertilizers, chemicals & diesel - all hitting ag sector. Midwest hit hardest. Brace for more food price hikes. Critical issue for households & Federal Reserve as food is what is known as a salient good.27 Apr 2026 14:15 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkib2bzgxc2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mki77e4gyc2iWe have a lot of history on tariffs and the unintended or ill-fated consequences that they can trigger. Worth a look. Below [contains quote post or other embedded content]27 Apr 2026 13:42 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mki77e4gyc2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mkfkmsmsrk2iUncertainty clouds Fed calculus The decision to drop the DOJ investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell clears the way for nominee Kevin Warsh to be confirmed. He should be sworn in by the time that Powell’s term as chairman lapses in mid-May.26 Apr 2026 12:29 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkfkmsmsrk2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mk6xscr3xs2rHard world we live in. [contains quote post or other embedded content]23 Apr 2026 21:36 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk6xscr3xs2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mjwtqwkqgs2fThe Federal Reserve meets next week. Expect an uncomfortable hold with debate within the Fed intensifying about whether its next move is up or down on rates. Its inflation-fighting credibility is eroding. My take for April FOMC https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/april-2026-fed-primer.html20 Apr 2026 16:02 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjwtqwkqgs2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mjwsztzaxc2fSupply chains are fast approaching COVID level disruptions in some countries. There is no Las Vegas in global economy; what happens abroad doesn’t stay there. The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/world/asia/asia-pacific-iran-war-oil.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share20 Apr 2026 15:49 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjwsztzaxc2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mjhbeww3bc2pFuture & spot prices for oil are diverging. What matters most for buyers - the actual prices or spot price of oil. That is their cost. They can’t decouple but the effects of higher oil prices linger, before we get to the disruptions to global supply chains. This is not a one & done event.14 Apr 2026 11:23 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjhbeww3bc2phttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mj5rynpxyk2bComing up on CNBC exchange with Kelly Evans & @steveliesman.bsky.social to talk CPI and the road forward for the Federal Reserve.10 Apr 2026 16:54 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj5rynpxyk2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mj5kxk474c2b🔥CPI surges on higher energy costs, with the largest monthly increase since the nearing the peak of the pandemic in June 2022. Gains were driven by a surge in energy cost. Fuel oil jumped 30.7% during the month, its faster pace since Feb 2000.10 Apr 2026 14:48 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj5kxk474c2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mj2yvi45q22b🔥The PCE index, which the Federal Reserve targets, rose 0.4% in Feb, up a tick from the 0.3% pace in Jan. That translates to 2.8% y/y, which is same as Feb. Measured of momentum accelerated. The 3 & 6-month annualized pace moved up, to 4.1% & 3.4 from 3.5% & 3.2% in Jan.09 Apr 2026 14:20 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj2yvi45q22bhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mizlf6vuq22sThis month, I was inspired by Jackson Browne’s Running on Empty. Lots of scenarios for the economy & war in Iran. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/april-2026-economic-compass.html09 Apr 2026 00:45 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mizlf6vuq22shttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mihv3exqk22jThe threshold for a rate cut rose in March. The Fed could finally bring the debate about risks that the next rate move could be up or down likely to make it out of discussion in the statement in March. [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Apr 2026 23:51 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mihv3exqk22jhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mihucpvfsc2jWow. Pure moment of joy watching Artemis ll launch successfully with my family. To journey where no humans have gone before…hope springs eternal. That which binds us is greater than that which divides us. Break bread, not ties. Be kind; pay it forward. New meaning to the Dark Side of the Moon.01 Apr 2026 23:37 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mihucpvfsc2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mic5b5v4mc2tFed sounding way too dovish…this is more than an oil shock…. Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock Powell sees inflation outlook in check, no need to hike rates because of oil shock https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/30/powell-sees-inflation-outlook-in-check-no-wider-crisis-yet-in-private-credit.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard30 Mar 2026 17:01 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mic5b5v4mc2thttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mi4vjb65w22sTesting the voracity of the K shaped economy. Note. Wealth effects tend to be asymmetric- the hurt mort when wealth hit than help when wealth expands, although there is the largest cushion for affluent household on record - both absolute & after adjusting for inflation.28 Mar 2026 14:59 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi4vjb65w22shttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mi4uvr7kbk2s“People focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.28 Mar 2026 14:48 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi4uvr7kbk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mi4un4lzas2sPeople focus only on the fact that the Gulf countries have exported oil and gas…They also export capital. Today they are huge players in the world financial system..Their sovereign wealth funds are really very significant forces.” said David Yergin, oil industry guru & Vice Chair of S&P Global.28 Mar 2026 14:44 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi4un4lzas2shttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mi2b2t5hrk2sStagflation risks are a reality that will stress the Fed. Markets see the Fed's next move as a potential hike as oil prices, inflation fears rise https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/markets-see-the-feds-next-move-as-a-potential-hike-as-oil-prices-inflation-fears-rise.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard27 Mar 2026 13:48 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi2b2t5hrk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mi2ahd2iic2sAmazing and appreciate your work. [contains quote post or other embedded content]27 Mar 2026 13:37 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi2ahd2iic2shttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mhvfgag6fc2vHybrid and WFH adds to productivity & reproductivity, but many reasons that kids should be in school five days a week. Crime is highlighted in this paper. Same time Gen Z spending more time alone/lonely and online. Losing import social skills. The insular lives of young people really matter. [contains quote post or other embedded content]25 Mar 2026 15:23 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhvfgag6fc2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mhvbta3ees2y🔥Import & export prices outside of oil were hot in February. Note import prices DO NOT include tariffs. Big increases in capital equipment, with computers & semiconductors rising rapidly with chip costs accelerating. Those affect a lot of other goods.25 Mar 2026 14:18 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhvbta3ees2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dianeswonk.bsky.social/post/3mhkx2bvx422wSorry, meant to tag @nickbloom.bsky.social and Steve Davis. [contains quote post or other embedded content]21 Mar 2026 11:39 +0000at://did:plc:2n7fhpxzlzvfsb2bvee2jlps/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhkx2bvx422w