Climate scientist at IIASA. IPCC AR7 CLA. Responsive climate projections. The guy behind the fair model and radiative forcing barchart. Occasional runner and guitarist. github.com/chrisroadmap | cjsmith.euhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.euhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3mdfvyq5vks2hD & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference) [code: https://github.com/chrisroadmap/temperature-attribution]27 Jan 2026 13:56 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mdfvyq5vks2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m7zcb6i6es2oThe FRISIA sea-level rise model description is published today and selected as a highlight paper in Geoscientific Model Development https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/10017/2025/ FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.15 Dec 2025 09:15 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m7zcb6i6es2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m7pe5nu3e224Beautiful analysis once again @hausfath.bsky.social https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-are-the-causes-of-recent-record-high-global-temperatures/?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2025-12-11&utm_campaign=Daily+Briefing+Warming+supercharged+floods+UK+energy+costs+to+halve+Gulf+lease+sale11 Dec 2025 10:22 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m7pe5nu3e224https://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m7nh3gwcsc27I'm looking for projections of agricultural water withdrawal into the future (UN FAO have historical data, e.g. fig. 13 in https://openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/889f7d6d-4d61-40eb-88f9-fddfc44bc817/content/state-of-the-worlds-land-and-water-resources-for-food-and-agriculture-2025-2025/scenarios-offer-insights-assumptions.html#gsc.tab=0). So much the better if they are tied to SSPs.10 Dec 2025 16:10 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m7nh3gwcsc27https://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m7ipe7jaac2gThe Frontiers for Young Minds Climate Change Volume 2, guest edited by me, @chrisd-jones.bsky.social and @leilaniamir.bsky.social, is now complete! Also collected into a nice e-book! https://kids.frontiersin.org/collections/59311/climate-change-volume-2 Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kids08 Dec 2025 18:54 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m7ipe7jaac2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m65mlyctz22vReduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5775/ In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections21 Nov 2025 15:40 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m65mlyctz22vhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m4zz44ly5c2zA sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different. Preprint: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-5292/07 Nov 2025 11:48 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4zz44ly5c2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m4fjzuuqm22nThe FRIDA overview paper: https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/8047/2025/ A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.30 Oct 2025 08:25 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4fjzuuqm22nhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m4bah6w4us2eHas anybody ever looked at the IPCC AR5 scenario database and run them in a simple climate model? I'm curious to know how many would get close to 1.5°C - probably not many if the earliest net zero CO2 date is ~2060. Interesting to see how ambition has evolved over time at the low end28 Oct 2025 15:23 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4bah6w4us2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m465fqusxc2xCarbon Brief article on our committed sea-level rise paper: https://www.carbonbrief.org/rapid-emissions-cuts-would-avoid-64cm-of-locked-in-sea-level-rise-by-2300/27 Oct 2025 09:51 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m465fqusxc2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3m2zam5kb4s2oHow to contribute to fair: ✅submit a pull request ✅wait 6 months ✅track me down in person and remind me to review it v2.2.3 now available at the usual places. pypi.org/project/fair anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair https://anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair12 Oct 2025 17:40 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m2zam5kb4s2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lyzvqrwlns2lRFMIP2 preprint now out! https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4378/17 Sep 2025 13:08 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lyzvqrwlns2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lyhz7ndzv22tIf you want to get your simple climate model picked up by IPCC AR7, see below 👇 We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2691/egusphere-2025-2691.pdf), plus a few others we found since. Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex [contains quote post or other embedded content]10 Sep 2025 10:22 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lyhz7ndzv22thttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3ly3anxoab22wflat10-MIP has landed! https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/5699/2025/05 Sep 2025 08:30 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3ly3anxoab22whttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lxhucs6b222wNow that it's public, I'm very honoured to be selected as Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 5, Working Group I for the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report 📚🌍 Our chapter is one hell of a team! Full author list for all three working groups: https://apps.ipcc.ch/report/authors/28 Aug 2025 15:29 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxhucs6b222whttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lw76qupkfs2nA deep dive into the world of simple climate models: preprint out from @arp-climate.bsky.social. we know this isn't exhaustive - we focus on the models that participated in RCMIP phases 1 and 2. There will be a phase 3, coming soon.12 Aug 2025 11:16 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lw76qupkfs2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lt4o4cx5t22gWe (@tim-andrews.bsky.social, Ryan Kramer and I) are leading a session around understanding radiative forcing in models at the CMIP Community Workshop in Kyoto, Japan, next March. Abstract submissions open until 13 August: https://wcrp-cmip.org/event/cmip2026/ Session ID #404 Jul 2025 06:58 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lt4o4cx5t22ghttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lsitoid75s2wIncluding a climate module and climate damages within a process-based integrated assessment model: meet FRIDA. https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2599/26 Jun 2025 09:44 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lsitoid75s2whttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lse7fczo722aHello world, who else is in Vienna this week?24 Jun 2025 13:30 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lse7fczo722ahttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lsbwsdu5fk2yIn this Carbon Brief post we talk about the implications of not including future volcanic eruptions in climate scenarios, as described in our recent paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02208-1 [contains quote post or other embedded content]23 Jun 2025 15:51 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lsbwsdu5fk2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/cjsmith.eu/post/3lqp2gypmgs2fI'll be giving a short talk on 1.5°C at a mini-symposium at VUB on Friday 6 June as part of an event celebrating the award of an honorary doctorate to @joerirogelj.bsky.social, see below for details and registration! [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Jun 2025 10:11 +0000at://did:plc:2tsy6wcdtblareib2fbkfat7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lqp2gypmgs2f