Always trying to outdo my counterfactual. Unfortunately I like econ jokes. #trusttheprocesshttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mvr4xlv3c223 [contains quote post or other embedded content]18 Sep 2026 02:33 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvr4xlv3c223https://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mvooys5cec2xReasonably relieved to see warsh recover & avoid a mistake we all suffer from here. I'm not sure you can give him too much credit for doing the obvious but he's at least learned everything he'd been doing was unpopular. Still waiting to see when a big decision comes if he avoids partisanship [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Sep 2026 03:18 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvooys5cec2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mvonsvpurs2x [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Sep 2026 02:57 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvonsvpurs2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mvomxkubfs2xI tend to find myself landing on the side of giving students slightly too much benefit of the doubt or partial credit (at least on average, sorry if I've wronged you) which I think is the right approach but this is a good reminder that a deserving F might actually save the Republic some day [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Sep 2026 02:42 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvomxkubfs2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mvjsk2adh226Shockingly hedge-fund bro bluffing did not inspire wide-spread confidence and settle down treasuries https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/14/business/bond-market-scott-bessent.html15 Sep 2026 04:38 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvjsk2adh226https://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mvjlcnga7223Seems like maybe we should consider this when talking about the state of the economy or policy to improve life for lower and middle income workers [contains quote post or other embedded content]15 Sep 2026 02:29 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvjlcnga7223https://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mvjjfq2tl223It took all of two years to return to the same electoral claims [contains quote post or other embedded content]15 Sep 2026 01:55 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvjjfq2tl223https://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mve5ya53lc2jI refuse to believe anything until Nov 4 [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Sep 2026 22:47 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mve5ya53lc2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mvajw72rf22dShould be a prerequisite to say about tariffs, not disqualifying [contains quote post or other embedded content]11 Sep 2026 12:10 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvajw72rf22dhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3muvcmsnsx22vThis is pretty empirically testable and fails. We dont see higher rates of maha/anti-vax among those discriminated against in or frequently excluded from our healthcare system (people of color, poor people, non-insured). Its highest among the most conservative areas. Important we get this right [contains quote post or other embedded content]07 Sep 2026 01:00 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3muvcmsnsx22vhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3muqb4tze3k2tNorth Korea be like: [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 Sep 2026 00:50 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3muqb4tze3k2thttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3munwnmbyjc2sThe famous centrist commentariat love to point to every dumb lefty proposal as evidence the left sucks on policy & yet when prominent "pragmatic" centrist orgs propose legislation its subsidizing demand w/ federally guaranteed loans of expensive quickly depreciating & child/climate-crushing assets [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Sep 2026 02:37 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3munwnmbyjc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mukyou4h6s2eHow do you ensure real consequences? Having none makes a joke out of the behavioral/psychology fields' seriousness & integrity, & academia more broadly. The incentives wrt funding/connections for coauthors are probably too big, so I guess you hold out for Duke? They already failed one investigation https://www.dukechronicle.com/article/duke-university-professor-dan-ariely-accused-of-additional-research-fraud-fabrication-tampering-epstein-data-colada-replication-2026090202 Sep 2026 22:36 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mukyou4h6s2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mufu2yxtms2tIt is grimly funny to watch people contrive scenarios that the economy today is historically bad, be shown they are empirically wrong, & spin themselves in circles until their logic leads to claims like the 2008 crisis was just speculators losing flipped homes. I promise you 10% unemployment is dire [contains quote post or other embedded content]31 Aug 2026 21:30 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mufu2yxtms2thttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mucznvx4ok27If this was true we'd be able to see it & test it empirically. Models can account for non-linearities or interaction effects to describe precisely this It just doesn't hold water that this is what has caused the sharp change in sentiment the past few years (even if its true we dont like inequality) [contains quote post or other embedded content]30 Aug 2026 18:32 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mucznvx4ok27https://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mu6lx6thgk2uSeriously how do you get this from any of Warsh's speeches or actions so far? Its been, as anyone who followed his pre-chair time could've told you, just partisan hackery along w/ pretending we haven't learned anything in the past 40 years on monetary policy. For God's sake hes suggested monetarism [contains quote post or other embedded content]29 Aug 2026 00:16 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mu6lx6thgk2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mu5rsukn4k2oShes back! Glad we cleared it up its not actually grit its being willing to ask for help that makes all the ceos so rich and successful @michaelhobbes.bsky.social @notalawyer.bsky.social https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/28/opinion/successful-people-help.html28 Aug 2026 16:28 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mu5rsukn4k2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mu42vbxecs2eYeah this is just delusional. How do you tie your shoes in the morning stuff. If nothing else being able to control supreme court nominations is critical (And yes some dems approve bad judges I promise they'd vote differently if those judges weren't already guaranteed to be confirmed) [contains quote post or other embedded content]28 Aug 2026 00:05 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mu42vbxecs2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mu3azb6vs22n"Causal inference is my passion" [contains quote post or other embedded content]27 Aug 2026 16:22 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mu3azb6vs22nhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mts7p7hevc2vI think if you didn't want to have many people telling you you're wrong on social media you should have read why he has been suspended before signing onto this letter and posting about the importance of academic freedom [contains quote post or other embedded content]24 Aug 2026 02:05 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mts7p7hevc2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mtjxrspcjs2kIt is truly incredible how being online all the time melts these peoples minds. They have whole imagined worlds where stancil is a celebrity, real economists generate him, 1997 & 2002 are the same year, tvs have stayed exactly the same, & empiricism is actually just i saw something once so its true [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 19:22 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtjxrspcjs2khttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mtjxeubas22kI think a good measure of whether you have it together is do you randomly bring up the name of a somewhat known internet poster that people have created a massive complex about in completely unrelated conversations (the answer should be no) [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 19:14 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtjxeubas22khttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mtjsntpxck2kYeah a lot of people out there love to pillory charts, spreadsheets, or any attempt to analyze things with numbers & I gotta say, if you want universal healthcare we are gonna need shitloads of charts & spreadsheets. We gotta stop larping that being a spreadsheet person makes you not "working-class" [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 17:50 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtjsntpxck2khttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mtjj45b54k2rThe census bureau has fallen [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 14:59 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtjj45b54k2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mtidrpaiic2m"One more quote tweet that'll show him" The thing where a person says some common economic statistic/concept is wrong, an economist disagrees, the person says here's why, the economist tries to show them why theyre wrong, & the person responds "actually its all fake, econ, math etc" is maga-coded [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 03:51 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtidrpaiic2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/anandbutler.bsky.social/post/3mtic3n5yus2m"Less honest" its remarkable Darling doesn't go insane interacting with accounts like this so regularly [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 03:21 +0000at://did:plc:4gnftdentg7lrlpkcgu7uuww/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtic3n5yus2m