An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: criticalthreats@aei.org | Media requests: mediaservices@aei.orghttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mv4qqfsnus2uNEW | Iran has launched a concerted effort in recent days to more aggressively target US naval forces, likely to degrade the United States’ willingness and ability to continue enforcing the US naval blockade on Iranian ports. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-9-202610 Sep 2026 00:01 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv4qqfsnus2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mv3oir72im2uMORE | The Houthis are likely attacking Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil to try to raise Saudi political and economic costs to an untenable level and compel Saudi leaders to terminate military operations against the Houthis in Yemen. [contains quote post or other embedded content]09 Sep 2026 13:49 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv3oir72im2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mv2kfrl4722uNEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin likely used his September 8 phone call with US President Donald Trump to push Putin’s misrepresentation of the battlefield situation.09 Sep 2026 03:03 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv2kfrl4722uhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mv2aeeemds2dNEW | The Houthis have shifted their tactics toward increasingly targeting Saudi oil facilities, likely after recognizing that their naval blockade of Saudi vessels in the Red Sea has failed to compel Saudi Arabia to meet Houthi demands in Yemen.09 Sep 2026 00:03 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv2aeeemds2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muz4wafsmk2nSudan’s rising tensions with RSF backers Chad and Ethiopia raise the risk of military confrontation between Sudan and its two neighbors. Each side faces serious constraints that discourage escalation into a regional conflict, however. 🧵⬇️08 Sep 2026 13:29 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muz4wafsmk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muxvhwgwp42sThe Ukrainian military demonstrated, and a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger acknowledged, the falsity of one of Russian President Vladimir Putin's more outrageous claims of fictitious Russian gains in Donetsk Oblast.08 Sep 2026 01:43 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muxvhwgwp42shttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muxnqymhyk2sThe Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) attempted to attack US naval forces on September 5, likely to try to degrade the United States’ resolve to continue enforcing its naval blockade on Iranian ports.07 Sep 2026 23:25 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muxnqymhyk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muvdwir23k2qNEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to make any meaningful compromises in the peace negotiations process to end the war in Ukraine.07 Sep 2026 01:23 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muvdwir23k2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3musk45wfuk2hNEW I The US delegation arrived in Moscow City on September 5 as Ukraine and Russia reached a temporary agreement to halt long-range strikes against Kyiv and Moscow cities for three days to facilitate the delegation's travel. (1/5) Read the full update here: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-5-202605 Sep 2026 22:36 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3musk45wfuk2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muqake2eck2lNEW | Recent Iranian attacks on US regional assets indicate that Iranian decision-makers—particularly the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) faction that appears to be controlling decision-making—are dissatisfied with the current status 👇 https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-4-202605 Sep 2026 00:40 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muqake2eck2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mup54rujmc2uForces loyal to junta leader Abdourahamane Tiani thwarted a major coup attempt on August 29 amid reported widespread dissent over growing insecurity and favoritism within the Nigerien armed forces.04 Sep 2026 14:06 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mup54rujmc2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3munypxvhpk2nNEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to use contradictory language about the possibility of achieving peace in Ukraine to obscure Moscow’s true objectives. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-3-202604 Sep 2026 03:14 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3munypxvhpk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3munqpmh7lk25NEW | The IDF announced on September 3 that it cleared a major Hezbollah underground facility beneath the Ali al Taher Ridge in Nabatieh District after a months-long siege. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-3-202604 Sep 2026 00:51 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3munqpmh7lk25https://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mummulllcs2kMORE | US efforts to restore freedom of navigation appear to be having some success in challenging Iran's ability to enforce control over the Strait of Hormuz. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Sep 2026 14:10 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mummulllcs2khttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mulel4zbc22oNEW | Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to exaggerate Russian forces’ battlefield performance to assert that Russian military victory in Ukraine is inevitable. These claims continue to be divorced from the battlefield reality on the ground, however. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-2-202603 Sep 2026 02:08 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mulel4zbc22ohttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mul5sn73e22gNEW | The roughly 50 percent reported failure rate of Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Jordan on September 1 may reflect the degradation of Iran’s longer-range missile capabilities. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-september-2-202603 Sep 2026 00:07 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mul5sn73e22ghttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muk4msnxt22jMORE | The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that the September 1 strikes against the Iranian radars “followed” Iranian attacks on three oil tankers and US forces and bases in the region. [contains quote post or other embedded content]02 Sep 2026 14:13 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muk4msnxt22jhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mujzmhc6ok2xRussian forces’ rate of advance marginally increased in August 2026, but Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operational maneuver or rapidly collapse Ukrainian lines. Russian gains remain slow and limited.02 Sep 2026 13:20 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mujzmhc6ok2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muij5dwblk22Iran struck US and allied bases and assets in the region on September 1 in retaliation for US strikes on Iranian military targets, including radars, on the same day. The CENTCOM strikes appeared to focus on assets that Iran uses to sense ships to strike.01 Sep 2026 22:52 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muij5dwblk22https://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muhwvvtnjk2rNEW | Burundi has significantly expanded its military involvement in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) against Rwanda and Rwandan-backed M23 rebels in the last three and a half years as part of its growing military cooperation with the Congolese government. 🧵⬇️01 Sep 2026 17:26 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muhwvvtnjk2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muhlsfjdz22mMORE | CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper announced on August 27 that US forces successfully removed the mines that Iran previously laid in the Strait of Hormuz’s internationally recognized traffic separation scheme. [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Sep 2026 14:07 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muhlsfjdz22mhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mugawppqzs2nNEW | The Iranian regime is attempting to re-assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz by deploying mines after US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that it had cleared mines in the strait. Read today's update: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-august-31-20266-6a9622f2e0757 (1/9)01 Sep 2026 01:20 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mugawppqzs2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mufpfoiz5c22ICYMI | The Nigerien junta thwarted a major coup attempt against the regime of Abdourahmane Tiani on August 29 with the help of Russian Africa Corps forces.31 Aug 2026 20:06 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mufpfoiz5c22https://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muf2642e3s2fNEW | Several North and sub-Saharan African actors have helped mediate an array of high-profile prisoner releases involving Tuareg rebels and Salafi-jihadi militants in the Sahel since mid-August, partially to advance their own regional aims and influence. Details below 🧵⬇️31 Aug 2026 13:46 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muf2642e3s2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mudhci3ohk2qNEW | Ukrainian forces are intensifying a long-range strike campaign against Russian airfields and drone launch sites while conducting suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) in Russia's border regions to degrade Russian strike and air defense capabilities.30 Aug 2026 22:36 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mudhci3ohk2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3muawshycus2kRussian forces launched a prolonged combined drone and missile strike series against Ukraine, primarily targeting Kyiv City and Oblast, that lasted for more than 28 hours in an effort to maximize civilian damage and disrupt civilian functions on August 28-29. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29-202629 Aug 2026 22:35 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3muawshycus2k