An AEI project focused on understanding threats and tracking global challenges | Contact us: criticalthreats@aei.org | Media requests: mediaservices@aei.orghttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mloyvhl4vc2kNEW I Iran’s pursuit of international recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz reinforces CTP-ISW's assessment that Iran views control of the strait as its most important tool of deterrence against future US or allied military action. (1/8)13 May 2026 00:03 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mloyvhl4vc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlnwptm4t22rMORE | Iran will not enter negotiations with the United States until the United States accepts Iran’s terms, according to a statement made on May 11 by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Baghiyatollah Sociocultural Headquarters Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 May 2026 13:52 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnwptm4t22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlmfsd3fxc27NEW | NEW | Russian and Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations throughout the theater on the final day of the May 9 to 11 ceasefire. Read More: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-11-202611 May 2026 23:16 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlmfsd3fxc27https://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlmew3alok2kNEW | Iranian leaders are trying to dictate the terms for ending the war, which illustrates that the Iranian regime perceives that it has the upper hand in the conflict at this time. Read more: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-11-202611 May 2026 23:00 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlmew3alok2khttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlk3h7zju22sRussian and Ukrainian forces continued limited offensive operations across the theater throughout the second day of the May 9–11 ceasefire.11 May 2026 01:06 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlk3h7zju22shttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mljnoo2sdc2sUS President Donald Trump stated on May 10 that Iran's latest counterproposal is “totally unacceptable.” Read more here: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-10-202610 May 2026 20:59 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mljnoo2sdc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlj2fkwfxs2tNEW: Iran has responded to the latest US proposal through Pakistani mediators, but it is unclear what the Iranian counterproposal includes at this time.10 May 2026 15:14 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlj2fkwfxs2thttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlgzlpyod224NEW I Russia is supporting Iranian efforts to rebuild Iran’s military capabilities during the ceasefire period. Russia is reportedly sending drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea to help Iran rebuild its offensive capabilities following the war, according to US officials. (1/5)09 May 2026 19:54 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlgzlpyod224https://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlf3mxhgmc2pNEW | Ukrainian forces are reconnoitering and interdicting Russian GLOCs in and near occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast (~105 kilometers from the frontline), demonstrating increased capabilities as part of Ukraine’s intensifying mid-range strike campaign. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-8-202609 May 2026 01:26 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlf3mxhgmc2phttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mletsfdupk2gNEW | Iran likely views control over the strait as essential to restoring deterrence against the United States and Israel following the degradation of its other forms of deterrence. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-special-report-may-8-202608 May 2026 23:06 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mletsfdupk2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mldzkvcw4c2jNEW: The US Navy is continuing its efforts to maintain an effective blockade of Iranian ports. US Navy aircraft fired on and stopped two empty Iranian-flagged tankers attempting to breach the blockade and sail to an Iranian port on May 8.08 May 2026 15:16 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mldzkvcw4c2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mldtrxhu3k2yNEW | The TPLF reinstated the pre-Tigray war regional government, effectively voiding the Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war and risking a potential military confrontation with the federal government. 1/608 May 2026 13:33 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mldtrxhu3k2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlcoltlauc2cNEW | The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the terms for Russia's unilaterally-declared May 9 Victory Day ceasefire. Read more: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-202608 May 2026 02:27 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlcoltlauc2chttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlcoilogdc2cNEW | US Central Command announced on 5/7 that US forces “eliminated inbound threats” and struck Iranian military facilities responsible for attacks on US forces after Iran targeted US naval assets in and around the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM stated that the United States “does not seek escalation.”08 May 2026 02:25 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlcoilogdc2chttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mlbfljdbjs27MORE| The Iranian regime is preparing for economic instability that could cause domestic unrest. This effort supports the “negative” strategic objective of preventing regime collapse caused by protests that result from serious economic instability. Read More: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-6-2026 [contains quote post or other embedded content]07 May 2026 14:13 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlbfljdbjs27https://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3ml7syolzds2rNEW | Iran seeks to achieve positive strategic objectives beyond the negative objective of surviving the war. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-6-202606 May 2026 23:08 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml7syolzds2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3ml6t2o2gec2dMORE | Iran likely seeks to send a message to other Gulf countries that they could become targets if they increase cooperation with the US and Israel as the UAE did. IRGC-affiliated media claimed on 5/4 that the UAE has become an Israeli “pawn.” 1/4 [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 May 2026 13:36 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml6t2o2gec2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3ml5dbumrds2kNEW | Iran has conducted a series of attacks against the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over the past 48 hours that are likely intended, in part, to isolate the UAE from other Gulf states. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-5-2026 (1/12)05 May 2026 23:21 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml5dbumrds2khttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3ml4mlg7syc2bNEW| Iran is continuing its escalation by sustaining drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile strikes against the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Read CTP-ISW's latest analysis about the war here: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-4-2026 (1/8) https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-may-4-2026/05 May 2026 16:35 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4mlg7syc2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3ml4jxbsnos2eMORE | The US-Iran conflict is one of attrition, in which each side is trying to impose economic costs on the other in a bid to extract concessions, according to a report from the Iranian Armed Forces General Staff-run Defa Press from May 2. Read More: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-4-202605 May 2026 15:48 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4jxbsnos2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3ml2udm4gq223NEW | Iran is attempting to demonstrate its “control” over the Strait of Hormuz in response to US attempts to secure freedom of commercial navigation in the strait. Read more: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-4-202604 May 2026 23:49 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml2udm4gq223https://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3ml2tdviuss2kNEW | A leaked European intelligence report highlights Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasing concern over his personal safety and the safety of his senior officials. Read the full report: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-4-202604 May 2026 23:31 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml2tdviuss2khttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3ml25vlwrb22hBREAKING | An Iranian drone attack caused a fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking the first Iranian attack on a Gulf state since the US-Iran ceasefire went into effect on April 8. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-304 May 2026 17:07 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml25vlwrb22hhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mkzzwxyxjk2aMORE | Phase 1 of Iran’s proposal includes a “complete end to the war” within 30 days, a mutual “guarantee of non-aggression” between the United States, Israel, Iran, and the Axis of Resistance. Read more: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-3 [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 May 2026 15:56 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkzzwxyxjk2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mkzrrgqhls2gNEW | Somali pirates have conducted the most hijackings in Somali waters in a 10-day period since the end of the peak of the Somali piracy crisis in 2012. 🧵⬇️04 May 2026 13:30 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkzrrgqhls2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mkyesd3xpk2kUkrainian forces continue their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure, exploiting vulnerabilities in Russian air defenses.04 May 2026 00:05 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkyesd3xpk2khttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mky3szspy22kIran’s counterproposal to the United States reportedly includes a three-phase plan that seeks to quickly end the war, guarantee no future combined force strikes on Iran, and address the Strait of Hormuz in the first phase, while delaying talks on Iran’s nuclear program to a second phase.03 May 2026 21:24 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mky3szspy22khttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mkvhydwcjk2vIran does not appear to have altered its negotiating position over the management of the Strait of Hormuz and its nuclear program in its latest proposal. Read today's update from CTP and @thestudyofwar.bsky.social: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-2-2026 (1/6)02 May 2026 20:24 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkvhydwcjk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mkt2tfh7l22vNEW I US President Donald Trump stated that he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal. Trump’s dissatisfaction reflects continued Iranian inflexibility on key issues, such as the nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. 1/6 Read more here: https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-update-evening-special-report-may-1-202601 May 2026 21:23 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkt2tfh7l22vhttps://bsky.app/profile/criticalthreats.bsky.social/post/3mkqxbftzpk2eNEW | Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev emphasized Russia's commitment to its war aims in Ukraine and claimed that Russia is in an existential conflict with the West after Trump's call with Putin on April 29. https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-30-202601 May 2026 01:14 +0000at://did:plc:5npld4fp47n4cgmvhurahn5v/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkqxbftzpk2e