peacebuilding, climate change and conflict, domestic politics and foreign policy || Assistant Professor of Political Science @UCSB || williamgnomikos.com || Previously @Yale @WashUhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mlgzihubm22iI wrote about the armed group attacks in Mali for @goodauth.bsky.social https://goodauthority.org/news/malis-post-un-experiment-has-failed/09 May 2026 19:53 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlgzihubm22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mgzs4wubsc2aWell, this is why you work tirelessly for years on cultivating alliances and building support for even the tiniest military operation. [contains quote post or other embedded content]14 Mar 2026 15:56 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgzs4wubsc2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mgziy47b2s2rThis is such a fun position. [contains quote post or other embedded content]14 Mar 2026 13:12 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgziy47b2s2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mgbweugoi22yAs with any Trump admin policy—what is the policy goal here? Phrased another way: if the Trump objective was total and absolute region-wide chaos, would you have done anything differently? https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/us/politics/kurds-trump-iran-war.html05 Mar 2026 04:08 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgbweugoi22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mg3mzxoqwc2f1) Long and vague timeline for operation (Iraq originally also was supposed to last mere weeks) 2) No real end goal, off ramp, or exit strategy at all. This seems like a maximalist war aim war preventively launched at a regime willing to do anything to hold on. @nytimes.com02 Mar 2026 16:05 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mg3mzxoqwc2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mfxqf3vios22I think this war is an illegal disaster that will just lead to needless deaths but I really, really hope I am wrong and that the future is bright and peaceful for Iranians. [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Mar 2026 02:54 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfxqf3vios22https://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mfwjbjtrsk25If the US is at war and under attack, will NATO invoke Article V? Seems pretty clear that it should be in case of war. Perhaps this explains Canada PM’s statement of support? But this is also not a legal war according to domestic or international law so what are NATO allies’ legal obligations?28 Feb 2026 15:14 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfwjbjtrsk25https://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mfwiyssmfs25In retrospect, the fact that they tried to rename the Department of Defense the Department of War was a pretty clear sign. This is not a subtle administration.28 Feb 2026 15:09 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfwiyssmfs25https://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mcbubw3vnk2eThis is so good. All the key points about the role of energy in intervention here. [contains quote post or other embedded content]13 Jan 2026 05:49 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mcbubw3vnk2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3mbpa7zukx225I wonder a bit about the applicability of existing research to this case. Is this even a regime change? Trump cares very little about norms so there will likely be coercion and repression. This might be horrendous for the Venezuelan people but lead to some neocolonial stability. [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 Jan 2026 20:03 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mbpa7zukx225https://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m7nnpomuu22iI wrote about the violence reaching the capital of Mali @goodauth.bsky.social - Peacebuilding failed - This doesn’t mean all interventions are doomed, just under some conditions (even in Mali!) - Not too late for international community to think creatively about helping civilians in Mali [contains quote post or other embedded content]10 Dec 2025 18:08 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m7nnpomuu22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m764zzbne225Still absolutely floored that my book, Local Peace, International Builders, received the APSA Experiments Section Best Book award! The book uses field, survey, and natural experiments to test a new theory of peacebuilding, which I develop formally in the book. 👇 Access links04 Dec 2025 14:00 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m764zzbne225https://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m6x7h7i4ak2b“It feels illegal.” [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Dec 2025 19:54 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m6x7h7i4ak2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m6bkvbpeis2o [contains quote post or other embedded content]23 Nov 2025 05:21 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m6bkvbpeis2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m6bfncfcac2nI have no idea what’s going on with US foreign policy. What a dangerous disaster. Just total chaos. I can’t believe it’s just year 1.23 Nov 2025 03:47 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m6bfncfcac2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m5edyoiu5s2tVery clear to know what to do for next shutdown fight but, since GOP obviously won’t fund subsidies, Dems *should* pick the same fight and have as a goal for Republicans to nuke the filibuster. The problem is that even if that’s issued as a direct threat to GOP, Dems won’t have credibility.11 Nov 2025 14:30 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m5edyoiu5s2thttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m5aav2jv4s2dGood luck with the dictatorship my guy. Doesn’t matter how corrupt or abusive you are if people have had enough and are willing to make those preference clear. Keep it up everyone! [contains quote post or other embedded content]09 Nov 2025 23:24 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m5aav2jv4s2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m4xsps36o22bGelman’s answer is essentially “no under most reasonable scenarios.” Worth the full read for the nuance. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Nov 2025 14:49 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4xsps36o22bhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m4wya5m3ok2zUnbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)06 Nov 2025 06:55 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4wya5m3ok2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m4wzgsiykc2mJust casually dropping in people like Lina Khan as transition co-chair. I think Mamdani isn’t listening to the people who said he can’t/won’t do the things he talked about. Looks like he’ll try! [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Nov 2025 07:16 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4wzgsiykc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m4wya5m3ok2zUnbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)06 Nov 2025 06:55 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4wya5m3ok2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m4vnios57s2pThe big question for me is what percentage of Trump voters in 2024 did or did not vote for the Republican in this election. The question is more about non-voters who stayed home rather than voters that chose an alternative candidate. Does anyone have that data?05 Nov 2025 18:10 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4vnios57s2phttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m4tjgfs5cc2jI’m just so happy to see so many different Americans in the greatest city in the world being so excited about politics. POLITICS!! [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2025 21:52 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4tjgfs5cc2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/wnomikos.bsky.social/post/3m4qhpbqhqs2rMcPherson does a good job contextualizing Trump/Venezuela but headline writer should probably not use “unprecedented.” From the piece itself: “From 1915 to 1934, for example, the U.S. invaded and then occupied Haiti and may have killed as many as 11,500 people.” And that’s just one example! [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2025 16:43 +0000at://did:plc:5usbc7f3wtfs567dpqijjev7/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4qhpbqhqs2r