International Relations prof at U. Illinois. Editor of Arc Digital. Author “Drones and Terrorism.” Politics, national security, and occasional nerdery.https://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml5n2hfm4k2vTrying to get the state to silence someone on the grounds of feeling aggrieved that they wrote something negative but factually supported about you, it turns out, is not defending free speech, and doesn’t fly in court. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 May 2026 02:16 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml5n2hfm4k2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml5l5jyvis2vNot the most important thing here, but if Democrats get national power in 2029, the factually accurate answer in 2030 to “why is this such a problem” will often be “because Trump badly messed it up.” That’ll be true for many years. All problems must be solved within a year is a bar you won’t clear. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 May 2026 01:42 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml5l5jyvis2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml5ixxfqfc2oI can't get over how the "proof" that AI is conscious is the software said something like "I get what you're saying, it's very insightful." In history of this era, I bet influential individuals' AI psychosis, especially tech execs, will turn out to be more a factor than people realized at the time.06 May 2026 01:03 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml5ixxfqfc2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml55vwlpcs2iLet's pretend that Iran no longer has a "conventional shield." At least it's accurate that Iran's conventional capabilities are lower than they were before the war. What's the point of taking down a shield if you're not going to do anything about what it protects, and leave them time to rebuild it? [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 21:45 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml55vwlpcs2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml54s7vqxk2iThe Trump regime's desire for authoritarian domination is bottomless, but its capacity is not. In corrupting DOJ, changing it from a law enforcement org into a try to hurt people the president personally dislikes org, they've reduced their prosecutorial capacity to the point of desperation. [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 21:25 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml54s7vqxk2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml52w2f3ks2iICE is limited by capacity, not desire. They're already "flooding the zone" as best they can. Minnesota showed the limits. Besides being deeply wrong to threaten paramilitary attacks if a state makes a legal decision you don't like, it's an empty threat. You'll do what you're already doing? Oh no! [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 20:52 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml52w2f3ks2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml4y7vi5as2iWe've gone from regime change and unconditional surrender to permanently ending Iran's nuclear program and support for Middle East militias to pretending the point was always just to trash some Iranian equipment. Losing freedom of navigation and crashing the global economy don't matter. Please clap. [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 20:03 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4y7vi5as2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml4uvxh3p22iThe energy supply crunch is primarily due to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz in response to US-Israeli attack. But another significant factor is Ukraine's increasingly sophisticated drone and missile capability knocking out Russian energy infrastructure in response to the ongoing Russian attack. [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 19:04 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4uvxh3p22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml4t3pyvok26The Trump regime keeps trying to get countries they repeatedly denigrated, tariffed, and threatens to rescue the US from its own mistakes by pretending that a closed Strait of Hormuz doesn’t hurt America. And it keeps not working because the world knows it hurts, and know Trump wouldn’t help them. [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 18:32 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4t3pyvok26https://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml4shqyxp226See how real personal income (blue line) was sloping up in 2023, getting closer to the earlier trend (dotted red)? That was good. And then in 2025 the slope flattens and gets further from the old trend? That’s bad. Still a puzzle why so many thought the time of growing real income was worst ever. [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 18:20 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4shqyxp226https://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml4jxvae7s2nThe U.S. government, from the president on down, is loudly signaling “we really don’t want more major combat, you should capitulate now.” That’s likely received by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as “we don’t have the stomach for this and desperately want out, hold firm and you’ll succeed.” [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 15:48 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4jxvae7s2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml4jk23rvk2nVery unfair to college students. The vast majority are not TPUSA activists demanding ideological adherence. Most are in college to work, learn, and have fun. I refuse to lie to them. One asked if the Iran war was over, and I said “no, blockades are acts of war,” not “yes, President Trump said so.” [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 15:41 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4jk23rvk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml4eqkthzc2nTwo US-flagged commercial ships made through the Strait of Hormuz with two US destroyers, multiple combat helicopters, and thousands of personnel shooting projectiles and attack boats. I don’t think that’s what shipping and insurance companies had in mind by safe passage with profit worth the risk.05 May 2026 14:15 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4eqkthzc2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/nicholasgrossman.bsky.social/post/3ml47ofzn5k2lEzra Klein’s main contribution to American political discourse is to mislead his audience about prominent far right figures, sanitize and normalize them, tamping down opposition. Charlie Kirk did politics exactly right, be more like him. Elon Musk cares only about cars and space, admire him. Etc [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 12:44 +0000at://did:plc:756gaaeewovgn4axja34ajne/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml47ofzn5k2l