@catinsight.bsky.social - Richard Dixon

20 Sep 2026 10:07 +0000

Fantastic having so much data on @zekehausfather.com's ENSO website for creation of charts. This shows current ENSO forecasts in historical event context highlighting those in red that are more closely aligned with current ENSO values. Suggests the outlandish 4+ RONI values maybe off the table?

20 Sep 2026 09:51 +0000

As much as I hate Microsoft products, this has been quite cathartic for me:

20 Sep 2026 09:41 +0000

ECMWF Sept winter forecast for Europe shows first half / second half increased / decreased extra-tropical activity, respectively as given here by an over-land storm-severity index by territory. Much in line with the broad signal for El Nino-dominated winters. Signal looks quite strong for 2nd half.

18 Sep 2026 17:10 +0000

You know it's quiet when 25% of my feed is "On this day in 19VV, hurricane W hit X with Y consequences that would cost Z today".

14 Sep 2026 17:21 +0000

Is everyone now using RONI or do some still use ONI? It's hard to tell from some plots when a slew of charts appear. If you're using ONI as it gives more dramatic numbers for the clicks - heck, just use RONI and quote your anomalies in Fahrenheit.

14 Sep 2026 17:13 +0000

It's that time of year again where nature is calling a halt to summer - hundreds of migrating swallows here in Deal in the very far east of England.

14 Sep 2026 10:28 +0000

And finally - a Hovmoller plot showing population-weighted days with temperatures >25c in the UK. Can see how the "summer days" start to edge more into September but also the curious May warmth of the 1930s-1950s. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

14 Sep 2026 10:12 +0000

And as for May's hot spell: using population-weighting, it was 3c (yes, 3c) warmer than any other May day in history: 30.4 versus May 1947's 27.4. It is interesting however how 1944/47/53 had some notably hot spring days. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

14 Sep 2026 10:06 +0000

An in addition to this, here's the top 20 hottest population-weighted days in the UK since 1930. 2026 added 8 (yes, 8) new entries to the Top 20 - from three separate hot spells in June (4 days), July (2 days) and August (2 days). 2026 days in this chart highlighted in the dark grey. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

14 Sep 2026 09:24 +0000

In 2026, each person in the UK on average experienced almost 12 days of temperatures >30c. To put this summer in context, the oft-quoted "hot summer" yardstick of 1976 had a number just short of 7 days. In absolute numbers, there were ~700m "person days" >30c compared to 1976's ~380m.

13 Sep 2026 15:31 +0000

And just to add to this... looking at the average daily RONI for Jun 1 up to as far as ERA5 goes and relating this to the ACE. What sticks out for me the most here after 2026's record high RONI and record low ACE is that datapoint in the bottom left... [contains quote post or other embedded content]

13 Sep 2026 12:28 +0000

I've been attempting to calculate a sort of "daily RONI" that uses only the same day of the past 30 years for its climatology. We've been record high (back to 1980) since probably late July now although it's interesting to see the flattening off / drop of this measure in last couple of weeks.

12 Sep 2026 13:51 +0000

I still cling on to hope of a late-season 30c...

12 Sep 2026 12:36 +0000

But remember, Reform aren't the Establishment etc. etc. [contains quote post or other embedded content]

11 Sep 2026 16:30 +0000

Re: the quiet hurricane season, I'd got a daily RONI calculation normalised against the same day's prior 30 years of ERA5 SST data. Took at look at which seasons had the highest "rolling daily" RONI value for the hurricane season up to the present-day. And lo...

11 Sep 2026 12:46 +0000

Longest we've waited since 1966 - and pretty much the lowest cumulative areal extent of SST / mid-level RH and favourable vertical shear up to early September since this year, too over the western half of the main development region. Certainly stacks up... [contains quote post or other embedded content]

09 Sep 2026 20:30 +0000

Tropical cyclogenesis again. Here's 2026 cumulative daily occurrence of SST>26.5c, mid-level RH>50% & 200-850hpa shear<10 m/s since Jun 1 and how it compares to the 1996-2025 mean up to now (Sep 3 in ERA data) + when all 3 come together. Turns out the western MDR has had a *stinker* this year.

08 Sep 2026 19:30 +0000

First in my series of meteorological ales. Not sure when the next will happen. Hello from Brick in Hove.

08 Sep 2026 07:48 +0000

Why of course, I've picked today to watch cricket in Hove, haven't I...

06 Sep 2026 08:56 +0000

After the summer we've had I guess it should come as no so surprise to see - albeit in the long range - that the models are flagging up in-and-around record-breaking date temperatures for the time of the year. Another >30c day to add to the list?

05 Sep 2026 08:35 +0000

Reform's 14-month stranglehold on the polls is over. Turns out claiming to be anti-establishment when you are actually probably the establishment doesn't wash with voters. Historical data is from Electoral Calculus website. Interactive chart here: https://richsdixon.github.io/misc/Electoral%20Calculus%20Seat%20Projection%20-%20interactive.html

03 Sep 2026 09:13 +0000

Inspired by a comment from @mktippett.bsky.social on a different platform: as well as shear being markedly higher and mid-latitude relative humidity being lower than usual, the relative MDR SST (showing both W and E sections vs 20S-20N tropical mean) is also pretty darn low in 2026...

02 Sep 2026 21:16 +0000

Kudos to @burgwx.bsky.social and his polarwx.com website - can use the historical ensemble output to make some smashing animations. Here's the last 6 EC ensemble suites for Hurricane Lowell, for example.

31 Aug 2026 08:26 +0000

A fine dry start seemingly on the LED radar display, although the sun may be blocked out a little at times by a large moth in Eastern Scotland.

30 Aug 2026 17:02 +0000

@norcrosscricket.bsky.social I'm sure it's been pointed out to you already but cherry-picking "Lowest post-war bowling averages (min qualification: 99 wickets)" is quite eyes-emoji after this Test...

27 Aug 2026 22:45 +0000

This is pretty much the best thing I've done in PowerPoint....