Over a decade of institutional experience. Multi-Asset Manager. Macro/Factors/Flows/Bottom-Up. Sharing my internal research notes & thoughts. Not Fin Advice.https://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mglx6iypms2xThe longer this war lasts the likelier the US will enter a recession [contains quote post or other embedded content]09 Mar 2026 03:49 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mglx6iypms2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mglwxobvpk2x-Soaring oil prices will bite into the purchasing power of the less wealthy consumers -Ultra wealthy consumers, which have been single-handedly keeping the US economy afloat, will feel the pinch amid declining stock market K-shaped economy no more... #Iranwar huge strategic blunder? #EconSky09 Mar 2026 03:45 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mglwxobvpk2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mgjdtydpok2uThe #Iran war is expanding. No de-escalation in sight. All of #Trump efforts during the past year; low oil prices & lower yields and a weaker USD are being unwinded. At this pace, we'll soon have; >100$ WTI >5% UST 30y yield Rising USD #EconSky #Economy [contains quote post or other embedded content]08 Mar 2026 02:57 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgjdtydpok2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mgfky7773s2hSeems like the market started baking in a prolonged conflict now. NFP not helping too. #EconSky [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Mar 2026 14:54 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgfky7773s2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mgcylfbrtk2mReal Retail Sales Ex-Auto is weak. Meanwhile nominal retail sales look fine. This means: • Consumers aren't buying more, they're just paying more • Savings rate at 3.6% (3yr low) • The "resilient consumer" is a nominal illusion #EconSky #Economy #Trump05 Mar 2026 14:20 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgcylfbrtk2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mgcvi6f7yk2vAll parties involved in this war are signaling that it will be protracted and could last 'weeks'. Should their guidance turn out to be true, assets are definitely not pricing in enough geopolitical risks... #EconSky #Economy [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 Mar 2026 13:24 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgcvi6f7yk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mgasr32m722j1/6 Today's ISM Services was about as good as it gets; headline beat, prices paid lower, new orders higher. Mkts up, but the war is still going on. And the longer it lasts, the more it threatens to overwhelm the mkts. Here's what could emerge if this lasts weeks or even months. 🧵 #EconSky #Economy04 Mar 2026 17:30 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgasr32m722jhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mfued42kns2uTariff inflation effects starting to show in the economy. Will it be temporary now that tariffs have been shot down (although they are still there temporarily... at 10%, or 15%? 😅) ? #EconSky #Economy #Finance27 Feb 2026 18:40 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfued42kns2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mfnoenf6mc26Core PCE Nowcast for Q1 2026 keeps trending up 😬 [contains quote post or other embedded content]25 Feb 2026 02:51 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfnoenf6mc26https://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mfl7qd2pdc2tUS growth exceptionalism drove massive USD appreciation in 23/24. But as Europe's fiscal impulse and China's stabilization close the relative growth gap, strong US data no longer signals outperformance. Paired with questionable policy setting, USD takes a massive hit. #EconSky #Finance24 Feb 2026 03:24 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfl7qd2pdc2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mfhrqjpikc25Core capex orders (nondefense ex-aircraft) up 5.9% YoY,the single best proxy for business capex intentions. I know this isn't new, but always nice to see a chart that puts it into perspective. Rising orders = businesses investing in future capacity = bullish for industrials & tech hardware. #EconSky22 Feb 2026 18:35 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfhrqjpikc25https://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mfdbmtlux22tStriking tariffs down cuts $200B/yr revenue, adding ~$2T to 10yr deficits = higher yields. On the flipside, it's disinflationary and could add +$1,750/household of purchasing power. Markets must now weigh this dynamic + policy uncertainty as Trump explores alternative legal paths. #EconSky #Finance20 Feb 2026 23:36 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfdbmtlux22thttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mf7wlrw3u22yOn the back of the hawkish Fed Mins (some members even thinking about a hike!), I had a look at some "sticky" inflation measures : Supercore PPI vs Supercore PCE. The former is hot at 5.1%, and a lead signal for the fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE. Reflationary? #EconSky19 Feb 2026 15:41 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mf7wlrw3u22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mf7w5xnvqc2yAfter all this tariff talk and political posturing from the Trump admin, US Trade Deficit in 2025 was still one of the largest on record... #EconSky19 Feb 2026 15:33 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mf7w5xnvqc2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/bakiane.com/post/3mf66odpazc2wC&I loans +1.25% MoM, nearly 2σ above the 3Y rolling mean. Businesses borrowing to expand is a positive signal for equities. These tailwinds (credit & OBBB) are not new, but with markets choppy since Nov on AI disruption/CAPEX fears, are they priced in? Probably not fully📈 #EconSky #FinSky #NewHere18 Feb 2026 23:00 +0000at://did:plc:a6yvj2ivgzy54mknowmm3mfa/app.bsky.feed.post/3mf66odpazc2w