British Academy Postdoctoral Fellow at Queen Mary University of London. matthewbarnfield.co.ukhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mvi5ypblys2oJason very nicely summarises our @electoralstudies.bsky.social paper showing that partisan gaps in coalition expectations shrink, but do not entirely disappear, after an election result reduces uncertainty about possible coalition formation. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379425000460 [contains quote post or other embedded content]14 Sep 2026 12:58 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvi5ypblys2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mvhtvmsbhk2sCoverage of Reform's £72m keeps raising the possibility that the donations may have to be returned under the Representation of the People Bill, without engaging with the text of the bill. A lot of "Tice said, Rayner said". These seem like the relevant sections. bills.parliament.uk/bills/408014 Sep 2026 09:57 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvhtvmsbhk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3muoq5niw4c2f'Burnham’s deeper ambitions cannot be delivered on a three-year electoral timescale.' The public agree with @robertshrimsley.bsky.social 's analysis (https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/8657e79c-4691-4ab2-8227-9f90a96cb912) 👇 https://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3msshrmxcik2j [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Sep 2026 10:14 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3muoq5niw4c2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mu2wn4yan22wAs YouGov's excellent report on perceptions of public opinion makes no mention of climate change, I wrote up some relevant findings from a survey YouGov ran for me, in which I measured support and perceived support for net zero: https://drmatthewbarnfield.substack.com/p/how-many-britons-think-the-public [contains quote post or other embedded content]27 Aug 2026 13:16 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mu2wn4yan22whttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mtivgpmdcs2fSeems worth noting that the maximum PCN for fly-tipping was already raised to £5000 in July (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/war-on-waste-crime-hefty-new-fines-for-fly-tippers-and-litter-louts). [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 09:07 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtivgpmdcs2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mtgeicoh2k22Andy Burnham is setting out to convince the public that ending rough sleeping is possible. He needs to: despite wide acceptance in commentary at the time of its announcement as being a feasible goal, voters think he is less likely to fulfil this pledge than any other – as I found in my polling 👇🏻19 Aug 2026 08:58 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtgeicoh2k22https://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3msxf6bp26s26FWIW, in a survey I ran recently, 75% of people thought the next election would take place in 2029 and not sooner. Labour voters more inclined to believe Burnham that 'there is no early election': 86%. Reform voters less inclined to believe him: 63%. [contains quote post or other embedded content]13 Aug 2026 10:01 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3msxf6bp26s26https://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3msusnkcz5s26It is claimed here (43:10) that "there are certain kinds of information that are just not going to get communicated" on TikTok, because he has "never watched a TikTok in which somebody makes a complicated economic argument" or "sophisticatedly explains history". Hm. https://open.spotify.com/episode/6P31V6tn40GXTMSM4vQ6fD?si=m-1rTta3Q5-hAqWc3knhug12 Aug 2026 09:24 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3msusnkcz5s26https://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3msshrmxcik2jWill Andy Burnham run out of time? More detail (illustrated) on my polling covered here by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social for @newstatesman1913.bsky.social. The survey was in the field on 31 July, at the end of Burnham's initial policy "bonanza"... [contains quote post or other embedded content]11 Aug 2026 11:04 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3msshrmxcik2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mss3gnvgyc2mI asked the public what they made of targets mentioned by/associated with Andy Burnham. Among these targets, their priorities were in the areas he emphasised in his first couple of weeks – but they are sceptical about the time it will take to achieve them. Write-up by @rmcunliffe.bsky.social [contains quote post or other embedded content]11 Aug 2026 07:23 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mss3gnvgyc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mrz57d7swk2wWeek two of the Burnham "bonanza" has been less about concrete retail measures and more about indicating the direction of travel on big priorities. I wrote recently (and roughly) about how we can understand this kind of leadership in terms of "aspiration": https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/andy-the-aspirant https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/andy-the-aspirant?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=6welkv01 Aug 2026 09:18 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrz57d7swk2whttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mrxfx3m7s22fAnd check them out in more detail here https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/reform-uk-the-political-home-of-climate [contains quote post or other embedded content]31 Jul 2026 16:49 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrxfx3m7s22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mrptty3e6c2xSaw the Burnham bounce bat signal in the sky so here I am talking about how momentum in the polls affects electoral expectations (original paper linked below): https://youtube.com/shorts/RAbvGTvZvMg?is=SUuXgj3wLBwGVCH528 Jul 2026 16:37 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrptty3e6c2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mrd3h4egpc2sA "continuation of decarbonising Miliband era" in the context of declining public support for net zero and climate change mitigation measures? How puzzling. I wish someone would write a Substack about how political science can make sense of this. https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/the-global-warming-thermostat23 Jul 2026 14:48 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrd3h4egpc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mranixccms2sWhy do fewer people want the government to do more about climate change than five years ago? Maybe because the government is doing something about it. I wrote about how public opinion on net zero is (ironically?) like a thermostat: https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/the-global-warming-thermostat https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/the-global-warming-thermostat?r=6welkv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true22 Jul 2026 15:33 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mranixccms2shttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mranixccms2sWhy do fewer people want the government to do more about climate change than five years ago? Maybe because the government is doing something about it. I wrote about how public opinion on net zero is (ironically?) like a thermostat: https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/the-global-warming-thermostat https://open.substack.com/pub/drmatthewbarnfield/p/the-global-warming-thermostat?r=6welkv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true22 Jul 2026 15:33 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mranixccms2shttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mr7wqbv3es2nThe general point here is obviously right, but I'm really not sure it makes sense to make this about voters' attention spans. Strikes me as just vibes and, even if it is a factor, as one that is dwarfed by the many others that the rest of the piece recounts so well. [contains quote post or other embedded content]22 Jul 2026 08:46 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mr7wqbv3es2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/mbarnfield.bsky.social/post/3mr7v2dwbn22nThis point is coming up a lot today. Last year, I argued that failure to recognise this would be the downfall of Starmer's "decade of national renewal": https://theconversation.com/keir-starmer-needs-to-give-voters-short-term-gain-to-persuade-them-he-can-deliver-long-term-renewal-267404 [contains quote post or other embedded content]22 Jul 2026 08:16 +0000at://did:plc:bi664aufbejbsqfpyf5i6ux4/app.bsky.feed.post/3mr7v2dwbn22n