info@jstadvisors.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mtloeutikw2wInterventions can lower the ceiling, but it almost definitely raises the floor.21 Aug 2026 11:39 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtloeutikw2whttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mtgmveyyc72iI feel like sports teams going for $10b+ when 30y real yields are 3%+ is a pretty big statement on these guys' view of the durability of very low equity risk premium. 19 Aug 2026 11:29 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtgmveyyc72ihttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mt25tm4dpk2iSomething that is telling of two different dynamics in US rates at the moment, is that since the middle of May, 1y1y has been roughly flat around 4% and 10y note yields are +30bps. Since June, the market has cut its hikes priced for '26 in half, but 30y yields are at the highs. 14 Aug 2026 12:27 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt25tm4dpk2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3msxhyirv4z2aOver the last five years, European growth has averaged around 1%, there have been multiple supply shocks, elections, the ECB has both cut and hiked. However, within that backdrop, the CAGR on European bank stocks (SX7E) over the last 5y has been close to 30%. 13 Aug 2026 10:51 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3msxhyirv4z2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mrwtavx2me2kI wonder if we look back at July as the month leverage was transferred from equity to credit. Google FCF going negative for the first time in 20y the same month that leverage in the AI equity system got rinsed, technically is a coincidence but practically might not be.31 Jul 2026 11:15 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrwtavx2me2khttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mrk67jfygk2bNew post for Polymarket Institutional Research. https://news.polymarket.com/p/the-long-goodbye26 Jul 2026 10:26 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrk67jfygk2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mr5yexlntb2oNow that AI capex is going to be issuance based instead of strictly FCF, guidance in Q2 earnings is now a bond market event as well. 21 Jul 2026 14:10 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mr5yexlntb2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mr5fcc2ivu2dBetween articles like this in the FT today and Merz's (changed) tone from the Franco-German conference in Bruhl last week, it feels like we are reaching a tipping point in terms of Europe's response to Chinese trade policy. https://www.ft.com/content/dcc76c2a-b463-4c9d-830b-58044b9967ea?syn-25a6b1a6=121 Jul 2026 08:28 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mr5fcc2ivu2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mqolse5hb32mIn Japan you can solve JPY with the right level of JGBs. You can also solve JGBs with the right level of JPY. The problem has been that the current policy is to solve neither. 15 Jul 2026 11:15 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqolse5hb32mhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mphbeqz55g24Especially in light of Warsh's pivot away from guidance at June FOMC, I thought the way Lagarde framed it in her Sintra speech tonight was well done. "In times of uncertainty, forward guidance loses its value. But framework guidance becomes more valuable."29 Jun 2026 19:55 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mphbeqz55g24https://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mpgjdycble2wFeels interesting to me that despite the rally last week in FI, we haven't done much to July pricing since the FOMC. Still almost 8bps priced.29 Jun 2026 12:45 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mpgjdycble2whttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3movm77jp752bIt feels like the market thinks the transition of AI spend from FCF to issuance (eq/credit) will happen seamlessly. It likely won't change the aggregate spend on power, data centers, memory, chips etc. but the global liquidity backdrop will surely be different given the size.22 Jun 2026 19:20 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3movm77jp752bhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3moiq5fnvrz2pSomething interesting to me about the FOMC today is that, not only have the 2025 doves (u-rate) converged to the 2026 hawks (PCE), but the 2026 hawks have gotten incrementally more hawkish in recent weeks. Feel like that is a bit underrated in light of all the Warsh speculation.17 Jun 2026 16:26 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3moiq5fnvrz2phttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3moijgxtizi22Today is going to be a super interesting day as a Fed watcher. We will get new information value around the reaction function and the balance of risks, but also in how the Warsh Fed wants to communicate with markets on a go forward basis. Really excited for it. 17 Jun 2026 14:26 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3moijgxtizi22https://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mnk7ybxaj52fIrony is that Warsh criticized the Fed for being too model dependent. Now, the only reason not to hike would be for model reasons (wages). 05 Jun 2026 13:17 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnk7ybxaj52fhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mnhrezx7iz2vIt is pretty amazing when we have a $SMH down day, all the laggard sectors rally. Financials, consumer, staples, healthcare, housing etc. all up 1%+ so far. With NQ down more than 1%, equal weight SPX is up. 04 Jun 2026 13:51 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnhrezx7iz2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mnhk6acl2o2oGoing into NFP tomorrow, it feels like the US labor market right now is meaningfully softer than 2021-2023, but holding up better than 2024-2025.04 Jun 2026 11:42 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnhk6acl2o2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mngzdobfom2fA continued problem for the BoJ is the delta of what they think is hawkish and what the market thinks is hawkish continues to be as wide as ever.04 Jun 2026 06:40 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mngzdobfom2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mneux4e7a424The market thinks that Warsh will fully drop forward guidance, but that his dovish "anchor" over the U6/Z6 contracts will persist. This feels more like an either or to me in light of where the spot data is.03 Jun 2026 10:16 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mneux4e7a424https://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mmydsmoxbc2pOver the last month, USDJPY had oil prices go down, June BoJ get solidified and MoF intervened to the tune of $73B. Despite all of that, we are unchanged at 159. 29 May 2026 10:38 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmydsmoxbc2phttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mmogw7it6h2qSomething that feels pretty telling in USDJPY today is, global yields are down 10bps, crude oil down 6%, a general reduction in risk premia and USDJPY is pretty close to unched at 159. 25 May 2026 12:07 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmogw7it6h2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mmc5yddda32xRelative to the fundamentals (barrels offline), it's interesting that the oil right tail hasn't fully realized. What is more interesting to me, 3m into this shock with inventories continuing to get drawn, the market feels like it still trades headline risk asymmetrically dovish.20 May 2026 14:55 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmc5yddda32xhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mm7lkh66xa2eSomething to keep in mind for the Fed right now, the Dec '25 SEP thought that 75-100bps of real fed funds was appropriate. Based on current inflation fixings, if the Fed doesn't hike, the real funds rate will end the year slightly negative. That's a big change in policy stance.19 May 2026 14:20 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mm7lkh66xa2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mlt2gljlow2mPost Masu's speech the market feels more comfortable with June BoJ getting done. The paradox the BoJ should start talking about is, they want to go slow in the hopes of doing "less," but as we have seen, without anchoring JGBs/JPY, they're going to end up inevitably doing "more."14 May 2026 14:41 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlt2gljlow2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mlqlwgxr3o2qNot that it matters when $SMH is up another 13% MTD, but there is some sub sector weakness starting to creep in. Financials, home builders, consumer discretionary have all had weak months and are now down YTD. Feels like rates starting to get noticed. 13 May 2026 15:17 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlqlwgxr3o2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3mldnkoh4s32qNow that FCF for the hyperscalers has been taken out to a large extent, the demand for capital between AI capex estimates and the TBAC this week combined, might end up being around 9-10% of US GDP for 2026.08 May 2026 11:41 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3mldnkoh4s32qhttps://bsky.app/profile/jturek18.bsky.social/post/3ml6gauhemr2nSomething that is pretty telling in FX right now is, despite so many things going in the dollars favor this year: - Fed rate cuts priced out - AI capex crushing expectations - A global energy shock - Relative US growth outperformance The Bloomberg dollar index is down 1.5% YTD.06 May 2026 09:47 +0000at://did:plc:c52d7aof23sczencxkt2yeyb/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml6gauhemr2n