Political scientist studying how oppositions challenge dictators at home and abroad. Opposition parties, authoritarianism, elections, foreign policy, Southeast Asia. Postdoc @ Stanford CDDRL orensamet.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3msgidait6225@stanfordcddrl.bsky.social just published this "research-in-brief" summarizing my recent report with @wfd.org. If you're interested in how opposition parties challenge autocrats, check it out! You can read the full WFD report here: https://www.wfd.org/sites/default/files/2026-05/wfd-psa-authoritarian_ecosystem-paper-10-opposition-strategies-and-electoral-challenges.pdf https://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/news/resisting-electoral-authoritarianism-five-approaches-and-their-pitfalls06 Aug 2026 16:42 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3msgidait6225https://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3mjpbicfrn226The Trump State Dept has been weaponizing the language of “values” to undermine the EU and advance far right political actors. Turns out one of its driving forces is a JD Vance protege barely out of college, described as a “savage conservative” https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/world/europe/trump-samson-europe.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share17 Apr 2026 15:47 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjpbicfrn226https://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3mjf7kbvvcc2kAgreed. Huge hindsight bias in commentary on opposition strategies. Often structural conditions and opposition choices converge with a lot of luck in the mix We can and should learn from successes across cases. But we don’t have to try and make everything into a ready-made formula for victory [contains quote post or other embedded content]13 Apr 2026 15:45 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjf7kbvvcc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3mjf5y3rgrk2bHungarian election certainly portends a vibe shift in how we think and talk about the global health of democracy. But just as Orban’s rise probably occupied too much of the imagination previously, we risk over indexing on his loss as well. The broader systemic shifts are real and have implications [contains quote post or other embedded content]13 Apr 2026 15:17 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjf5y3rgrk2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3mjan5cbn722zI should note that the ideological convictions here are relatively shallow in the traditional sense: Orbán’s opponent Péter Magyar is quite conservative. But it’s more about vibes than policy positions. What’s clear is that it has very little to do with realpolitik [contains quote post or other embedded content]11 Apr 2026 20:05 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjan5cbn722zhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3mjalbeoac223The Iran war has decimated Trump's "isolationist" credentials. But flying more under the radar on this front has been his administration's aggressive intervention in Hungary's domestic politics. It's worth understanding what's driving this, so a brief 🧵 1/ https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-economic-support-viktor-orban-hungarian-election/11 Apr 2026 19:32 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjalbeoac223https://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3mdsphys4wc2pFive years on from the coup that toppled Myanmar’s civilian government, the National Unity Government (NUG) is struggling to maintain relevance. It reflects a challenge that many other oppositions have faced, and one that's at the core of my current research 🧵 1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/01/world/asia/myanmar-coup-anniversary-government.html?unlocked_article_code=1.I1A.Ed4h.ztXNH08xgyt0&smid=url-share01 Feb 2026 16:04 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3mdsphys4wc2phttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3maozjqukek22The State Dept continuing to advance a new “values-based” foreign policy. Deploying targeted sanctions against individuals for highly ideological reasons. These are the type of sanctions that used to be levied against rights abusers. Now for European internet regulators24 Dec 2025 00:38 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3maozjqukek22https://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3maeslo3jdc22New development in the Trump admin effort to exert federal control over voter rolls. As I wrote a few months ago (see 🧵 below), since the admin’s legal case is weak, the biggest concern here is voluntary compliance by GOP-controlled states. And that’s exactly what we see happening now [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 Dec 2025 23:07 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3maeslo3jdc22https://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3ma7cwxr4t22e“A breakdown in state capacity... is very bad. And paradoxically… that may be the thing that is saving democracy” Pleased to be quoted in this thought-provoking new piece from @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social on the limits of Trump's capacity to erode US democracy https://www.vox.com/politics/472346/trump-democracy-2025-haphazard-authoritarian17 Dec 2025 18:43 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3ma7cwxr4t22ehttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3m6gao7napc2xUS ends temporary status for Myanmar nationals, cites upcoming elections as 'progress' Cruel, idiotic, with absolutely no upside. Trump admin living in fantasy land on Myanmar https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-terminates-temporarily-legal-status-myanmar-citizens-2025-11-24/25 Nov 2025 02:01 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3m6gao7napc2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3m65nggw7tk2vAmerica still has a values-based foreign policy https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/27/us-values-based-foreign-policy-trump-ideology/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=dXMtdmFsdWVzLWJhc2VkLWZvcmVpZ24tcG9saWN5LXRydW1wLWlkZW9sb2d5&pid=PNINzQGOyq8waqm [contains quote post or other embedded content]21 Nov 2025 15:55 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3m65nggw7tk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3m36srield22cUS intervening directly in a foreign country's politics in a way that conflicts with Trump's supposed "transactionalism." We continue to have a "values-based" foreign policy, just with a different inflection https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/oct/14/trump-threatens-to-cut-us-aid-to-argentina-if-milei-loses-election14 Oct 2025 22:48 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3m36srield22chttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lzvudeb2ss2vThere is still *one day* left to post a public comment in response to this proposed regulation. You can do so here: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/08/28/2025-16554/establishing-a-fixed-time-period-of-admission-and-an-extension-of-stay-procedure-for-nonimmigrant either under your name (as I did) or anonymously. There are currently more than 17,000 comments - it's a lot, but still room for more! [contains quote post or other embedded content]28 Sep 2025 15:57 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lzvudeb2ss2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lzpgoe32gc2q"...particularly for an administration that has eschewed large foreign interventions" I really wish reporters would stop credulously repeating this claim - it doesn't hold up when you actually look at this admin's foreign policy (Brazil, Europe, Iran, now Argentina, you name it!) https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/25/trump-argentina-milei-bessent-republicans-bailout-0058144926 Sep 2025 02:36 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lzpgoe32gc2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lygd6ns22k2nAlternative way of looking at this: if you are interested in promoting elite splits in the regime and its support network, this very much could be the way… [contains quote post or other embedded content]09 Sep 2025 18:15 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lygd6ns22k2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lygb56a6ik2cOne of the greatest safeguards for American democracy (in contrast with other backsliding cases) is the decentralized nature of its election infrastructure, in the hands of states/localities. The Trump administration is trying to whittle that away. Alarming new report with some of the details: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/09/us/politics/trump-voter-registration-data.html09 Sep 2025 17:38 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lygb56a6ik2chttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3ly6mmo55yk2zThis is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state A brief 🧵 on potential implications [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Sep 2025 16:42 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3ly6mmo55yk2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3ly6o5kym2k2rI don’t really think this is a fair characterization. The number of times I’ve seen the US compared *by Americans* to 1930s Germany, or Peronist Argentina, or Orban’s Hungary… There’s also the perils of over-indexing on others’ experiences. Providing historical context from the US is helpful! [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Sep 2025 17:10 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3ly6o5kym2k2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3ly6mmo55yk2zThis is a major escalation in the Hun dynasty's efforts to crush any opposition to its rule in #Cambodia. This new law allows the gov to arbitrarily revoke citizenship from anyone it deems to be "conspiring" against the state A brief 🧵 on potential implications [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Sep 2025 16:42 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3ly6mmo55yk2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lxxlkqxius2sThe US cuts are obviously the most dramatic and make up a huge share of the total drop in ODA. But there are pretty steep declines elsewhere, and they are all compounding one another [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Sep 2025 21:35 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxxlkqxius2shttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lxxkgcksas26This is likely to have significant immediate and longer term implications for democracy and human rights struggles. These numbers are pretty dramatic (although giving everything not hugely surprising) [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Sep 2025 21:14 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxxkgcksas26https://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lxuhwr7a5s2eThe echoes of Cambodia, Venezuela, and elsewhere are very strong here. Turkey’s “nearly stunning election” in 2023 lit the spark for extreme backlash and an effort to extinguish opposition I discuss more here: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/ajps.12920 [contains quote post or other embedded content]02 Sep 2025 15:52 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxuhwr7a5s2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lxss54hif22lOnce again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Sep 2025 23:49 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxss54hif22lhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lxss54hif22lOnce again, my IR research agendas are converging! Opposition politicians conducting international outreach/advocacy + a repurposing of the “values-based” foreign policy/freedom agenda by right-wing actors [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Sep 2025 23:49 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxss54hif22lhttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lxrv7to2522pUseful to break down which threats are just bluster and which have teeth. In the case of proposed election-related exec order (discussed here), there's no statutory power, but there is the power of persuasion So the threat really comes from states voluntarily moving to come into line with the EO [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Sep 2025 15:12 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxrv7to2522phttps://bsky.app/profile/osamet.bsky.social/post/3lxsj6fjybc2kI have mixed feelings about this bc I have great respect for Cambodian rights defenders. But I really do not think Cambodia holds many positive lessons for the struggle for/defense of democracy Tbh, it’s a cautionary tale of how liberal rhetoric and commitments can manifestly fail to produce change [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Sep 2025 21:09 +0000at://did:plc:c7fcoxtud52w6lnbpte5fo6n/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxsj6fjybc2k