Energy analyst, public policy specialist, amateur historian. Welcome constructive debate. Zero tolerance for trollinghttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lly7y4sg3k2eBRENT calendar spreads have contracted sharply, a sign traders anticipate more oil will be available in the second half of the year owing to a tariff-driven slowdown in the global economy and the surprise decision by OPEC⁺ to accelerate scheduled output increases:04 Apr 2025 10:38 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lly7y4sg3k2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3llvnmlcyzs2wEUROPE’s gas storage sites ended the main winter heating season less than 34% full on March 31. Colder temperatures and lower wind generation boosted gas consumption resulting in the largest inventory depletion for four years:03 Apr 2025 10:04 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3llvnmlcyzs2whttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3llorhlackc2oOIL FUTURES attract fund buying despite trade war jitters: https://jkempenergy.com/2025/03/31/oil-futures-attract-fund-buying-despite-trade-war-jitters/31 Mar 2025 16:24 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3llorhlackc2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3llgp2zqp422gGLOBAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION was rising at an accelerating rate at the start of the year, a sign of a strengthening cyclical recovery. Global production was up 2.7% in January 2025 compared with the same month in 2024, the fastest increase for more than two years since October 2022:28 Mar 2025 11:20 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3llgp2zqp422ghttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3llgozcyjrc2gEUROPE’s gas futures calendar spread from summer 2025 to winter 2025/26 has softened near to its lowest in five months as fears about a scramble to refill storage this summer recede:28 Mar 2025 11:19 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3llgozcyjrc2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3llboe5k2oc25CHINA’s LNG imports slowed to 10.6 million tonnes in the first two months of 2025, down from 13.2 million in the same period of 2024, and the slowest for the time of year since 2018:26 Mar 2025 11:24 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3llboe5k2oc25https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3ll7ayppftc27CHINA’s long-distance passenger transport has increasingly moved onto the high-speed rail network and aviation and away from the roads:25 Mar 2025 12:20 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3ll7ayppftc27https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3ll4mppp64k24CHINA’s coal production increased to a seasonal record 765 million tonnes in the first two months of 2025 up from 705 million in the same period in 2024 and 734 million in 2023:24 Mar 2025 11:11 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3ll4mppp64k24https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3ll4moqizos24U.S. VEHICLE miles travelled increased to 251 billion in January 2025, the highest for the time of year since before the onset of the pandemic in 2020. But traffic volumes have increased at an annual rate of less than 0.2% over the last six years, cotributing to the slowdown in fuel consumption:24 Mar 2025 11:11 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3ll4moqizos24https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lkdc6hmmhs2zCHINA set to miss energy efficiency target: https://jkempenergy.com/2025/03/13/china-set-to-miss-energy-efficiency-target/14 Mar 2025 09:26 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkdc6hmmhs2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lkaxmzcrg22vINVESTMENT MANAGERS sold the equivalent of another 48 terawatt-hours of futures and options on European gas over the seven days ending on March 7. Sales over the latest four weeks have totalled 166 TWh.13 Mar 2025 11:12 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkaxmzcrg22vhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lk6j7ufwqs2kINDIA’s petroleum consumption has lost momentum since the fourth quarter of 2024. The country has replaced China as the fastest source of global consumption growth so the loss of momentum has contributed to downward pressure on prices.12 Mar 2025 11:49 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lk6j7ufwqs2khttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3ljmsaaz5cc2rEUROPE’s gas storage facilities were 38% full on March 3, with just under one month of winter depletion likely ahead. Storage was below 62% full on the same date in 2024 and the ten-year seasonal average of 42%05 Mar 2025 10:42 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3ljmsaaz5cc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3ljkev2oi5c2fU.S. HEATING DEMAND so far this winter has been the highest for six years since 2018/19. The number of population-weighted heating degree days has been 6% higher than last winter and 3% above the prior ten-year seasonal average, accelerating the depletion of gas inventories:04 Mar 2025 11:38 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3ljkev2oi5c2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lj5qy66lnc2mINDIA's coal-fired generation hit a record high in 2024 - illustrating the difficulty of phasing down fossil fuels in developing economies with fast-growing electricity demand: https://jkempenergy.com/2025/02/26/indias-coal-fired-generation-hit-record-high-in-2024/27 Feb 2025 11:10 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lj5qy66lnc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lj5qtrtujc2mU.S. CRUDE INVENTORIES at the NYMEX delivery point in Cushing showed a sustained and unusual rise in the first three weeks of February. Stocks increased by 3.6 million barrels, the largest seasonal rise since 2019, and compared with a prior ten-year average of 0.3 million:27 Feb 2025 11:07 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lj5qtrtujc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lj3auvlxrc26NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION has entered a strongly positive phase ensuring the polar front jet stream takes a more northerly track and bringing lots of warm, wet and windy weather to Northwest Europe:26 Feb 2025 11:16 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lj3auvlxrc26https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lj3athwj6226EUROPE’s gas futures calendar spread between the summer of 2025 and the winter of 2025/26 has collapsed as traders anticipate warmer weather and reduced inventory depletion in March as well as the relaxation of summer refill targets:26 Feb 2025 11:16 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lj3athwj6226https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3liypzv3h2223U.S. MANUFACTURERS reported production was essentially unchanged in the three months from November to January compared with the same period a year earlier. There has been no net growth in manufacturing production for eleven years since early 2014:25 Feb 2025 11:10 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3liypzv3h2223https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3liwtse7pz227IF YOU would like to receive a free daily digest of best in energy news + my own newsletter, you can add your email to the circulation list via my website: jkempenergy.com/mailing-list/24 Feb 2025 17:12 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3liwtse7pz227https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3liwtpxrydk27HEDGE FUNDS build biggest bullish position in U.S. gas since 2017: https://jkempenergy.com/2025/02/24/hedge-funds-build-biggest-bullish-position-in-u-s-gas-since-201724 Feb 2025 17:10 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3liwtpxrydk27https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lim673nygk2vEUROPE’s gas storage sites have depleted at the fastest rate since the winter of 2020/21 and before that 2016/17. Storage sites were less than 43% full on February 18 compared with 65% full on the same date a year ago and a seasonal average of almost 47% in the last decade:20 Feb 2025 11:18 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lim673nygk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lijnkm6va22pINVESTMENT FUNDS sold the equivalent of 34 terawatt-hours of futures and options based on European gas prices over the seven days ending on February 14, the largest weekly sale for 15 months. But it came after fund managers boosted their net long position to a near-record 292 TWh the week before19 Feb 2025 11:15 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lijnkm6va22phttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lijavroxxc24IF YOU would like to receive a free daily digest of best in energy news + my own research notes, you can add your email to the circulation list here: jkempenergy.com/mailing-list/19 Feb 2025 07:29 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lijavroxxc24https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3ligxqlubnk2vHEDGE FUNDS turn away from U.S. crude after China imposes tariffs: https://jkempenergy.com/2025/02/17/hedge-funds-turn-away-from-u-s-crude-after-china-tariffs/18 Feb 2025 09:40 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3ligxqlubnk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3li2y4qrrw22aENERGY TRANSITIONS can happen rapidly at industry and sector level even if they occur more slowly or not at all at whole-economy and global levels.13 Feb 2025 15:14 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3li2y4qrrw22ahttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3li2htr2lac27INVESTMENT FUNDS had amassed a record net long position in futures and options on European gas equivalent to 292 terawatt-hours (TWh) by February 7, up from essentially zero a year ago, anticipating the region will have to pay much higher prices to refill storage in the summer of 2025.13 Feb 2025 10:23 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3li2htr2lac27https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lhyhv7c5ns24U.S. SERVICES prices are rising faster which likely forecloses the possibility of any more interest rate cuts. Prices excluding housing rent increased at an annualised rate of 4.2% in the three months to January - more than twice as fast as the central bank's whole-economy target of a little over 2%12 Feb 2025 15:19 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lhyhv7c5ns24https://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lhy3tzqkes2eNORTH CHINA has so far experienced the mildest winter for more than 14 years since at least 2010, cutting gas consumption and allowing the country’s traders to resell LNG cargoes into Europe. Beijing sits at the heart of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei mega-region which is home to 109 million people:12 Feb 2025 11:43 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lhy3tzqkes2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/jkempenergy.bsky.social/post/3lhvreroqt22fNORTHWEST EUROPE’s gas futures prices have climbed to a large premium over those for deliveries to Northeast Asia as the region bids to draw cargoes to shore up rapidly depleting inventories.11 Feb 2025 13:30 +0000at://did:plc:clpp5eil5hhptygpnxtnsjjy/app.bsky.feed.post/3lhvreroqt22f