Content is focused on: •NFL contract analysis, especially toward the Denver Broncos •Over The Cap contributor •Being the Compensatory Picks Guy™ https://thinair.footballhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvsk7hli7e2qI'm glad that the Broncos are high on being willing to do in season extensions. Obviously data points are being entered in real time that make matters more complex, but it's not good to completely take a tool out of the box if it could be useful to the team.18 Sep 2026 16:03 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvsk7hli7e2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvnfv7xwis2cThere was an alternate history where Joe Thomas gets traded to Denver in 2015 to cover for Ryan Clady's season ending injury. That would have gotten him a much deserved ring, avoided playing in this disaster in 2016, and the Broncos wouldn't have been able to draft Paxton Lynch.16 Sep 2026 15:02 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvnfv7xwis2chttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvkzyprqpq2e2027 compensatory picks projection after 1 week of snaps. Changes: •LAC: 4th⬆️3rd (Oweh) •KC: 5th⬆️4th (Watson) •BUF: 5th⬆️4th (Edwards) •GB: 4th⬇️5th (Doubs) •BAL: 6th⬇️7th (Kolar to Ricard) •MIA:➕7th (Bailey) •CIN: ➖7th (Volson)15 Sep 2026 16:24 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvkzyprqpq2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvirc66tff2jBut two other Falcons to keep an eye on for compensatory picks are Cameron Thomas & Samson Ebukam. They got 51% & 58% of the snaps as they fill the holes left behind by Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. at EDGE. Later this week we'll see if they get to the qualification bubble.14 Sep 2026 18:43 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvirc66tff2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvir2x4fjo23There was an outside chance that Da'Shawn Hand could have cancelled out a 2027 compensatory pick to the Falcons if he had played enough snaps in 2026. In a way that no one wanted to see, that will not happen.14 Sep 2026 18:39 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvir2x4fjo23https://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvid67flvv2cThe Broncos wisely got Patrick Surtain II extended before the CB market exploded. Can they also fit in Riley Moss & Ja'Quan McMillian to the budget? Well, the Patriots are fitting in 3 CBs, as follows: •Christian Gonzalez: $33.75M APY •Carlton Davis: $18M •Marcus Jones: $12M14 Sep 2026 14:30 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvid67flvv2chttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvdkun4jng2cPer @RobDemovsky, here is what Tucker Kraft's new four year, $75 million extension with the Packers should look like. https://overthecap.com/player/tucker-kraft/1090212 Sep 2026 17:05 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvdkun4jng2chttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvdkt4a5vz2jThe Packers did here what I think is more practical in structuring roster bonuses that are due early in the league year, instead of agreeing to injury only vesting guarantees that can give an incentive to bench players if things go wrong.12 Sep 2026 17:04 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvdkt4a5vz2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvdibh7yip2cNote that in OTC's database, we only classify contracts as extensions if they were signed before the previous contract expired. Thus, this does not include contracts aided by tags or tenders, or contracts agreed upon after free agency started.12 Sep 2026 16:18 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvdibh7yip2chttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mvdi2ryfcy23Number of rookie contract extensions that occurred between the Raiders extending Hunter Renfrow & Michael Mayer: •11: BUF •9: HOU/DET/GB •8: NE/DAL/PHI •7: SEA/SF/PIT •6: MIA/BAL/JAX •5: DEN/NYJ/ARI/ATL •4: CAR/CHI/MIN/NO/CIN/LAC •3: TEN/LAR/IND/WAS/TB/KC/CLE •2: NYG12 Sep 2026 16:15 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvdi2ryfcy23https://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mv6dxazsax2cNext up, I take a look at the possibility of extending Marvin Mims. I wrongly worried for a bit of finding a good comparable to his career, but as it turns out, Rashid Shaheed's career arc is very close.10 Sep 2026 15:18 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv6dxazsax2chttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mv2al62bq32eBaker Mayfield lands right on the $55M APY firewall that only Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott has surpassed. CJ Stroud could also be another possible contender to breach it, along with the 2026 rookie class quartet of Maye/Nix/Williams/Daniels.09 Sep 2026 00:07 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv2al62bq32ehttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mv22n6335b2uYou can take a look at the Bucs' spending in their history right here: https://overthecap.com/historical-team-spending/tampa-bay-buccaneers08 Sep 2026 22:20 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv22n6335b2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mv22mbbktu2jThe most money anyone has earned from the Bucs is Mike Evans, at almost $155M. Depending on the cash flow of this new contract, Baker Mayfield is likely to surpass this by the end of 2027, at the latest.08 Sep 2026 22:20 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv22mbbktu2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mv22a6jmgl2lI always find it charming that teams stress their depth chart is always "unofficial" even though they are the official source. "Unofficial" is clearly being used as a euphemism for "We don't want to publish a depth chart but we're being forced to.".08 Sep 2026 22:13 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv22a6jmgl2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3muzrsgkwiq2uLooks like PJ Locke could be pushing for snaps from Malik Hooker, even with Caleb Downs emerging as a starting rookie. That could make the difference as to whether the Broncos' 7th round 2027 compensatory pick from Locke going to Dallas makes the 32 pick limit or not.08 Sep 2026 19:42 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3muzrsgkwiq2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3muzeblf6si2cAs I start to look at a few possible extensions for the Broncos before the regular season starts, consider the safety depth chart: There are 5 currently on the active roster. 4 are slated to be free agents of some sort next season. A bit concerning.08 Sep 2026 15:40 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3muzeblf6si2chttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mux5irpghu2kBroncos fans will find much to like about the preseason ELWAY projections. But there's good stuff in here for all NFL watchers. Great work by Nate as always, give it a look.07 Sep 2026 18:34 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mux5irpghu2khttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3musk23ke7z2uThis is an excellent game going on in Eugene. Next week, Boise State should be ranked even if they lose, and Oregon should not fall much at all in the rankings if they lose.05 Sep 2026 22:35 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3musk23ke7z2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mupcjufh442uAlso, while you do want to be player heavy with nominees, more than one coach should be allowed to become finalists. The current logjam there is that Bill Belichick and Mike Shanahan should be Hall of Famers, and it's bad that one of them will have to wait another year.04 Sep 2026 15:43 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mupcjufh442uhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mujuwktv6e2pYou can see the whole list here: https://overthecap.com/cap-dollars-by-college Conferences have been updated for the latest crazy wave of realignment. Can someone tell Northern Illinois and Sacramento State that they're in the wrong conferences and need to switch places?02 Sep 2026 11:56 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mujuwktv6e2phttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mujuue676f26With cutdowns mostly handled and college football commencing, here's the Top 25 schools by cap dollars allocated to 2026: 02 Sep 2026 11:55 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mujuue676f26https://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mufimg7rak2gI don't know what the Broncos need to change--hire different scouts that know tight end well, alter how the current staff is evaluating the position, place a higher priority on salary/draft capital. But they simply have to do better at this position.31 Aug 2026 18:05 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mufimg7rak2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mufiiiuyj62gSo this opens up the possibility of becoming a repeat of Greg Dulcich, a tight end Denver gave up on that found better performance in Miami. I certainly will wish Justin Joly well, but this remains a less than stellar look for the Broncos at getting TE talent.31 Aug 2026 18:03 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mufiiiuyj62ghttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mudsucxzov25I am confused as to what the wire is saying with these two Packers trades. I don't have GB with an extra 2028 7th rounder beyond their own, and the wire does not distinguish which one came from which team.31 Aug 2026 02:03 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mudsucxzov25https://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mudbpiwech2iAnd indeed, the Texans got another 2027 7th from the 49ers that could have been used for Nathan Thomas instead. And this could either be SF's own, or KC's from the Skyy Moore trade. https://x.com/AdamSchefter/status/209416680335000812530 Aug 2026 20:56 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mudbpiwech2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mudbkunz5t27The 7th rounder the Cowboys are getting for Nathan Thomas could be the Patriots', which the Texans got in the Marte Mapu trade. Their original 7th went to the Browns in the Cam Robinson trade. However, the Jarret Patterson trade could provide an alternative.30 Aug 2026 20:53 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mudbkunz5t27https://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mudaadrt4m2zAaron Donald wouldn't be available for games against the 49ers, Giants, Broncos, and Eagles if this move was made.30 Aug 2026 20:29 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mudaadrt4m2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mud74y5c5b2rTight end will need to be addressed in the 2027 rookie class *and* veteran free agency, barring some very unexpected surprise during 2026. Again.30 Aug 2026 20:10 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mud74y5c5b2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/nickkorte.bsky.social/post/3mud6il3pgp2yJustin Joly not even making it out of his first training camp is extremely disappointing. The Broncos' scouting department has been excellent...except for tight end. They really need to completely revamp what they're doing at that position, because it isn't working.30 Aug 2026 19:58 +0000at://did:plc:cms3ck7i3fa6usrhojz3mebu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mud6il3pgp2y