Paul Warburg is a geopolitical analyst and YouTuber. https://youtube.com/@pauljwarburg?si=SDnFSyzRBsVw5xl- https://youtube.com/@icarusproject?si=XdEHMMVz6XGOCqd1https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3mlgi4c47622vI keep seeing Russians post on YouTube about how life is still “totally normal.” The irony of having to illegally use a VPN to bypass government restrictions to post to the outside world about how normal life is…is stunning. For content directed INSIDE Russia, social media is full of complaining.09 May 2026 14:42 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlgi4c47622vhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3mdhh3ltgak2kSomeone created a fake AI version of me to spread Russian propaganda. Yes, really! Denys Davydov shares more in this video. https://youtu.be/fLBOXuxnUUU?si=Mf3zy10ehNDklFhn28 Jan 2026 04:34 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3mdhh3ltgak2khttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3mcukzh4wf224Another banger.20 Jan 2026 16:24 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3mcukzh4wf224https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3mcuknpxy6k24Too many good quotes in this chapter to pass up sharing more.20 Jan 2026 16:18 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3mcuknpxy6k24https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3mcuk22tkus24There’s a danger to thinking you know something you’ve never truly studied. We see this trend prevalently exploited in modern politics everywhere. Excerpt on “The Power of the Charlatan” from The 48 Laws of Power20 Jan 2026 16:07 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3mcuk22tkus24https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lyk2bloucc2pThere’s a lot more to Russia’s drone incursion into Poland than first meets the eye. https://youtu.be/kAqHnMXLUno?si=p24tbEXBSaeldoGi11 Sep 2025 05:46 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lyk2bloucc2phttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lxqaifyc4c2oUkraine keeps tricking Russia - and Russia keeps falling for it. Short term? Russia loses men and materiel. Long term? Russia loses something much more important - their confidence to exploit legitimate battlefield opportunities, leaving them psychologically paralyzed. https://youtu.be/pWvhRNbzxuk?si=T80tFO2-PBqln9Zm31 Aug 2025 23:28 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxqaifyc4c2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lxhopj32ys27Predicted this months ago. Ukraine knows the value of its data to training the AI weapons of the future. They don’t have to give that to the west for free - especially to countries like the U.S. if we keep insulting and gaslighting them for defending themselves. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-sees-priceless-digital-battlefield-data-trove-key-wests-support-2025-08-27/28 Aug 2025 13:49 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxhopj32ys27https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lxdhjyppds2rUkraine’s recent actions against Russia could be much more significant than most people realize. It might look like “more of the same” to the untrained eye, but to me it looks like a decisive shift and a targeted strategy. https://youtu.be/ZuPxOe6bSgM?si=bTH8sNJZX7QEtNh826 Aug 2025 21:30 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxdhjyppds2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lxa472ugic2yWhen Hitler decided to openly rearm Germany, he knew he was gambling with sanctions. Had sanctions been applied, Germany’s position would have been hopeless. World War II never would have happened. Instead, the western world decided “not to provoke Germany.” History repeats itself.25 Aug 2025 13:29 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxa472ugic2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lwjxqxdsgc2gMuch is made of Ukraine’s manpower shortage. Few mention that Ukraine has levers to pull that they haven’t pulled yet. They can lower the conscription age from 25 to 18 - the “normal” age in most western countries. That they haven’t done so yet shows they aren’t as desperate as is said.16 Aug 2025 18:11 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lwjxqxdsgc2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lwji6mtjss2aThe current media cycle on Ukraine has repeated itself many times. “Trump wants peace. He says it’s close. Nothing actually happens.” No surprise. I said it a year ago - Trump CAN’T end the war, because the U.S. does NOT have any leverage to force Ukraine to do anything. We are quick to forget.16 Aug 2025 13:32 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lwji6mtjss2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lwjhiyifx22aIf Trump is serious about ending the war in Ukraine, he needs to apply the sanctions he threatened against Russia…the same way he ripped away military support from Ukraine the moment a conversation didn’t go “his way.” Otherwise he is once again being fooled by the mere words of Vladimir Putin.16 Aug 2025 13:20 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lwjhiyifx22ahttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvy2ezxqcc27Everyone is nervous about how the war will go, but the reality is that Ukraine is simply repeating thousands of years of military history. We are witnessing history in the making. When we look back, the conclusion will seem obvious the whole time.09 Aug 2025 15:10 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvy2ezxqcc27https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvxxwpasek2yBy agreeing to meet with Trump to try to avoid his sanctions, Putin has inadvertently revealed that he IS VERY worried about them. It’s VITAL that Trump presses that advantage rather than caving in to Russia’s demands.09 Aug 2025 14:26 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvxxwpasek2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvxxsjcyuc2yIn Ukraine, conventional weapons are losing relevance in favor of drone warfare. Yet Europe and the U.S. continue to stockpile conventional munitions for a war that may or may not ever happen. It would be better to send more to Ukraine now while they still have a punch. https://youtu.be/icCwKBjfBkU?si=TYNzajaexDFuCrYF09 Aug 2025 14:23 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvxxsjcyuc2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvld4eiiw22gPeople keep saying there are “nuclear tensions.” That plays right into Russia’s hands. They’ve been threatening nuclear war for YEARS and nothing happens. Trump “positioning” nuclear subs isn’t sending a message to Russia. The subs were already accounted for. It’s about looking strong at home.04 Aug 2025 13:41 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvld4eiiw22ghttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvlcrutouc2gRussians: “Ukraine isn’t able to siege Crimea, Paul. You don’t know what you’re talking about.” Meanwhile, Ukrainians: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-destroyed-one-russian-military-jet-damaged-four-crimea-2025-08-04/04 Aug 2025 13:35 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvlcrutouc2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvgbisf7ok2bThese are good developments. I just wish people would have listened sooner. I’ve been called every name possible by people on the right, for trying to encourage the right to do exactly what they’re finally starting to do now. We wasted a lot of lives playing politics. https://apple.news/AJ08cTq6NQhC3_BVwDVNyGw02 Aug 2025 13:29 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvgbisf7ok2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvf7oecdf225China’s military doctrine is based on misdirection - and for two decades they have been gesturing wildly at Taiwan so everyone would see. What happens when you put two and two together, and combine a Russian war in the west with intense historical grievances in the east? https://youtu.be/WMgUhZTNPRE?si=ECGNOkG9VqMezUGY02 Aug 2025 03:24 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvf7oecdf225https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvf6lrigdk2hRussia failed to read the 33 strategies of war.02 Aug 2025 03:04 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvf6lrigdk2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvexldjp6s22Big milestone today! Thanks to all my subscribers!02 Aug 2025 00:59 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvexldjp6s22https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvdrssadzc22Russia’s naval base WAS damaged by the tsunami. A pier snapped in half. That’s just the apparent damage we can see from satellite, but it confirms large waves did hit the base and cause damage…likely much more extensive than we can know. Any ships at dock would have been slammed into piers.01 Aug 2025 13:43 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvdrssadzc22https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvdqcxgh6s26Not only can Crimea be sieged, it IS being sieged. But because it looks different than a lot of people expect, many have missed the significance of what’s happened there. More than that, even the Russian military has already pulled back from Crimea in many important ways https://youtu.be/wzWjnZte6dI?si=0FIe4cY3OMpYAWYb01 Aug 2025 13:16 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvdqcxgh6s26https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvdq6sh77s26I always invite Russian trolls to poke actual holes in my discussions. They never do. The best they can say is “This is delusional propaganda” or “Take your meds” or “Go back to the asylum”…without ever clarifying why my analysis is actually wrong. That’s how you know you’re over the target.01 Aug 2025 13:14 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvdq6sh77s26https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lvbb5aaibk2vThe most overlooked aspects of warfare are often sociological. A lot of people will miss the negative religious implications for the Russian Orthodox Church of a magnitude 8.8 earthquake striking with an epicenter next to Russia’s nuclear naval base. That and a lot more: https://youtu.be/TwSIL-wIHgw?si=wOwR2qD0Mrt-Dt3-31 Jul 2025 13:39 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvbb5aaibk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lva7iccnps25Not to worry guys. It’s not really an earthquake. It’s just a Special Seismic Operation.31 Jul 2025 03:37 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lva7iccnps25https://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lv77cn7euc2fRussian TV began threatening Alaska again. Around the same time, an 8.8 earthquake (6th largest recorded in history) struck RIGHT outside Russia’s ONLY naval base in that area. A tsunami has hit the naval base, and now a volcano is erupting to its north. Irony sucks if you’re Russian.30 Jul 2025 18:01 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lv77cn7euc2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lv32zjeczk2vRussians are currently telling me how Ukrainian strikes on Russian rail lines are irrelevant and won’t make a difference. In the next breath they will tell me how Ukraine would lose the war almost instantly if Pokrovsk fell, because it’s a rail hub.29 Jul 2025 02:34 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lv32zjeczk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/paulwarburg.bsky.social/post/3lv2zn35jd22wUkraine has been crushing Russian supply lines lately. It’s already largely stopped Russia’s summer offensive. And there’s very little Russia can do about it. Russia is too large to fully defend. All it takes is a single strike on a rail line to completely stop deliveries. https://youtu.be/x0nvJ1Ehi-M?si=JjnSO4q8KM6Xgq-329 Jul 2025 02:09 +0000at://did:plc:cpgoulc4dctr4wneqmzfow7y/app.bsky.feed.post/3lv2zn35jd22w