Tired but hydrated. Lead Data Analyst for the Boston Red Sox. Recovering physicist. Formerly: Argonne, CERN (ATLAS), NIU, Murray State, St. Louis-ishhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mlh3sqy6hc2wThe better the models get, the more I seem to have to scream "DON'T FORGET YAGNI" and "come on, KISS!" at them.09 May 2026 20:34 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlh3sqy6hc2whttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mkvq32opnk2kNo company has ever been more relatable than Dunkin giving up on the “healthy” protein menu strategy and hard pivoting directly into putting Oreos on everything.02 May 2026 22:49 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkvq32opnk2khttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mk7bj3hg3k2eQuick question, does gpt 5.5 still talk to me like it’s trying to prove to me that it’s read every single book on computer programming? “We need to leverage a shim to reduce the risk surface area” got it24 Apr 2026 00:30 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk7bj3hg3k2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mk23rrcdnc2xIn case you were wondering how this performed, near-perfect temps meant no weather effect, leaving just the random-walk estimate. Top-3 average was 2:02:30, ~0.7 posterior SDs faster than the 2:05:10 median, inside the 95% interval (1:57:55–2:12:29). [contains quote post or other embedded content]21 Apr 2026 23:04 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk23rrcdnc2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mjzoulukjk2jgotta cash these in somewhere21 Apr 2026 19:13 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjzoulukjk2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mjwiyfd5o22rased on the attire on the Green Line skewing more Hokas and On Cloudmonsters than a typical workday, I can confirm today is the Boston Marathon. Just uploaded a new blog post looking at how much of finish-time variation is attributable to weather. https://tylerjamesburch.com/blog/statistics/weather-effects-boston-marathon20 Apr 2026 12:50 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjwiyfd5o22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mjurf7gxps2uSo uh anybody who bought a Mac mini for a clawdbot ready to sell it to me for pennies on the dollar yet? These MCMC chains aren’t gonna sample themselves, and my MacBook Air is starting to struggle.19 Apr 2026 20:15 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjurf7gxps2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mjrme4i66k23Yeah, that’s the point18 Apr 2026 14:06 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjrme4i66k23https://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mjitd46oh227Madison heard a baseball analyst was visiting and really rolled out the red carpet. Ice sculptures based on my line of work? Impressive!15 Apr 2026 02:17 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjitd46oh227https://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mjhhntkvqk23Appreciated this heuristic in @randyau.com’s excellent newsletter to answering a question I ask myself regularly when doing code reviews.14 Apr 2026 13:16 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjhhntkvqk23https://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mjfuzbjrss27Recap of my day: - Wake up at 6:30 - Boston to O’Hare gets diverted to Detroit because of a medical emergency - Get in the plane at detroit, then a last minute 1 hour delay on the tarmac - Standby for a 4:40 to Madison. One person short. - Current arrival scheduled for 9 pm 🫠13 Apr 2026 22:10 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjfuzbjrss27https://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mjaz5z7pk22eI would like to meet the person who first ate a carrot and was like “yeah let’s put this in a cake”11 Apr 2026 23:40 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjaz5z7pk22ehttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mirvjvrfv22pI waited weeks to find the perfect time to watch the Mickey + Bluey crossover. Gear my kid up for it. Sit down. Turn it on. It’s 1 minute long.05 Apr 2026 23:26 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mirvjvrfv22phttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mir63dmous2lI’m pretty confident I could pull a Joey Chestnut level run if there was an eating contest for deviled eggs.05 Apr 2026 16:26 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mir63dmous2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mimkcnicg22pOn Opening Days, we wear pink.03 Apr 2026 20:21 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mimkcnicg22phttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhy2zaokpc2xHappy Opening Day! …wait we’re away?26 Mar 2026 16:54 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhy2zaokpc2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhvll75lhk2qstrongly considering reverting back to vanilla beamer slides for everything just so people know what's up25 Mar 2026 17:13 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhvll75lhk2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhtjqckrt22w“wait is my 3 year old a bad influence on me?” he says to himself, after shoving a third handful of shredded cheese straight from the bag into his mouth.24 Mar 2026 21:35 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhtjqckrt22whttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhm5ukl6nc2mMy wife does this thing where she points out signs of spring to our kids. This is the only sign of spring I need.21 Mar 2026 23:14 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhm5ukl6nc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhkxipo4yk2zmaybe this is a hot take but I think the solution to all of the "AI is making you worse at coding" takes is to just, I don't know, actually read the code?21 Mar 2026 11:47 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhkxipo4yk2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhjbkudwlc2dWhat's 0.00003 between friends, @johnbedwards.io?20 Mar 2026 19:42 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhjbkudwlc2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhhgyds2422rBig news, we've just taken the lead over "literally the stupidest model you can come up with" [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Mar 2026 02:13 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhhgyds2422rhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhgr3kxipk2dme watching a 16-seed up 10 points on a 1-seed: "oh no this is going to kill my model's brier score"19 Mar 2026 19:41 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhgr3kxipk2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhgqqvyp7c2dwhen an AI lab announces their model has best-in-class performance on their own proprietary internal eval suite19 Mar 2026 19:36 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhgqqvyp7c2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mhb7bdj4uc2uHappy March Madness! Built a latent skill model last night to forecast the tournament. Write up on my blog including fun stats things like Simpson's paradox and gini coefficients. https://tylerjamesburch.com/blog/misc/march-madness-202617 Mar 2026 14:39 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhb7bdj4uc2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mh27yg5ipc2oMy daughter has been really into Encanto lately so I decided to make arepas stuffed with cheese, just like Julieta, Mirabel’s mom. The verdict? “Dad, I don’t like arepas”14 Mar 2026 20:04 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mh27yg5ipc2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/tylerjamesburch.com/post/3mgqpph5z4k2kHere's a take I'm working on - we shouldn't use RPM for pitch spin and should instead just do revolutions-to-the-plate. It spun around 16 times feels way more tangible than 2400 RPM.11 Mar 2026 01:18 +0000at://did:plc:ct7boh6ncbhxjuyrebejsov2/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgqpph5z4k2k