📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (all opinions here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, but always very Californian.https://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mtqzuoqdg22hUgh... Man City was due, but would have been fun to see (at least) 3 of the big 6 get a ❌ week 123 Aug 2026 14:48 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtqzuoqdg22hhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mtoetpafg72pMANU (Manchester United) Relegation risk a massive revenue overhang; downgrade to Underperform P/T cut to $1822 Aug 2026 13:26 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtoetpafg72phttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mtjv4niobl25Can confirm - I have 4 separate orders from Walmart arriving today. And I spend way more with WMT than AMZN. [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 18:34 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtjv4niobl25https://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mtj3shgm772jBBG Intelligence on Bessent playing the lack of liquidity: "Choosing to announce this... outside of the quarterly refunding cycle, in a quiet summer week with no meaningful economic data and likely thin summer liquidity, was meant to boost the magnitude of market reaction from the announcement."20 Aug 2026 11:01 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtj3shgm772jhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mtizatj7qa2cVery much waiting for a reporter to ask Bessent, "If you were still at Soros and saw Treasury intervening like this without any actual fiscal consolidation, what trade would you put on?" [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Aug 2026 10:15 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtizatj7qa2chttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mtc5podaav2fAre the Dodgers sold by the end of the week? And oh yeah, recall that includes Ohtani deferral of $680M fron 2034 to 2043 [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Aug 2026 16:47 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtc5podaav2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3msyg3lxhdf2vMy "won't exercise key-man opt-out clause t-shirt" etc etc https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7511597/2026/08/13/shohei-ohtani-dodgers-mark-walter-key-man-clause/13 Aug 2026 19:50 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3msyg3lxhdf2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3msvcq5zw3x2uNice 20% return for Mark Walter in 14 months https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/49590362/josh-kushner-bob-iger-buy-lakers-12b12 Aug 2026 14:12 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3msvcq5zw3x2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mssxrjw5w22i"⁠⁠The skill of deep thinking will likely become rarer and rarer..." https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/08/reading-crisis-postliterate-age/687618/ [contains quote post or other embedded content]11 Aug 2026 15:50 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mssxrjw5w22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3msswyxwnci2uFFS People should be reading *more* books (and ideally on paper) precisely because it forces your brain into taking in information slower/more deliberately than reading AI or tweets [contains quote post or other embedded content]11 Aug 2026 15:36 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3msswyxwnci2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3ms5s5ir2vc2h“The danger is that higher yields might instead reflect the risk of Mr Warsh’s experiment going wrong. “Nothing ever happens” can be a good bet. But central bankers’ reputations are made when something does.” https://economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/08/02/what-will-kevin-warsh-do-if-americas-economy-breaks03 Aug 2026 05:44 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms5s5ir2vc2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3ms5run3jh22hTried to let it settle for a weekend but still can’t stop thinking about that Musalem. Fun times in Fedland. https://open.substack.com/pub/yontodd/p/the-feds-fractured-front?r=2fwz&utm_medium=ios [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Aug 2026 05:39 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms5run3jh22hhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrygthxunj2s1) This is the most firey statement I can remember a Fed official offering. 2) That said, I'll really believe this whole revolt narrative to be true if/when Powell ever speaks 3) The minutes release is going to be quite the event [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Aug 2026 02:38 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrygthxunj2shttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrslnet7uy2rIs Timiraos going to get called on at all? There should be a prediction market contract for this29 Jul 2026 18:48 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrslnet7uy2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrq2hhicgs2dThe era that shaped me the most/I'm most nostalgic for can pretty much be summed up with "When were the Strokes, TV on the Radio, and Beach House at their peak"28 Jul 2026 18:35 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrq2hhicgs2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrplpon4mc2pChicago housing market remains spicy For the third consecutive month, Chicago led all metros with a 6.9% annual increase in May, followed by New York (4.2%) and Cleveland (3.1%). https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-announcements/article/sp-cotality-case-shiller-index-reports-annual-gain-in-may-2026/28 Jul 2026 14:11 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrplpon4mc2phttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrpk5zrhk22sInvest in this FIFA thing at a $20B valuation or in the Boring Company at a $20B valuation [contains quote post or other embedded content]28 Jul 2026 13:44 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrpk5zrhk22shttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrpk2trxvk2sChinese automakers projected to take 16% of EU sales by 2030, or a ~€200B shift. But compare that to the projected €230B in annual added defense spending across EU members by 2030 (assuming the 5% NATO Hague level). The defense pivot alone easily offsets the trade shift in cars. [contains quote post or other embedded content]28 Jul 2026 13:42 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrpk2trxvk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrphyjnhn22iHell yeah Newsmax announced today that the Company has entered into an AI content partnership with Meta Platforms ("Meta"). $NMAX $META28 Jul 2026 13:05 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrphyjnhn22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrnsgcmopk2zFears around Chinese autos in Europe seem a bit overblown... (also an Uber trip I took in Paris last month was in a BYD and c’était incroyable, especially after looking at the retail price) https://yontodd.substack.com/p/guns-vs-gearboxes-can-missiles-and27 Jul 2026 21:06 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrnsgcmopk2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.bsky.social/post/3mrfpi7vmea2rMe and LeBron, both born in 1984. He signs a 2Y contract, therefore out of personal pride, that means I need to ensure I can still dunk into my age 44 year.24 Jul 2026 15:52 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrfpi7vmea2r