📈📉 US markets/macro/Fed/housing (all opinions here = own). 🗣️ Learning French with very modest success (Intermediate/B1). 📍Chicago, but always very Californian. https://yontodd.substack.com/https://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mzdm33zkzc2d$ANT October run-rate revenue of [blank] is bullish or bearish?02 Nov 2026 15:07 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzdm33zkzc2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mz43dtyi5sjfThis is infinitely more defensible and less stupid than the AI researchers taking up smoking [contains quote post or other embedded content]30 Oct 2026 15:19 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz43dtyi5sjfhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3myzzz3lcxs7eMaybe the greatest episode of Frasier29 Oct 2026 19:50 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3myzzz3lcxs7ehttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3myxrp6ggncu7Chelsea really starting to Chelsea more as of late... [contains quote post or other embedded content]28 Oct 2026 22:16 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3myxrp6ggncu7https://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3myufyh746s2rGS: "even the 6 year old A100 is renting for more today than it did at the start of the year, re-writing depreciation forecasts and earnings potential for the full cohort looking out."27 Oct 2026 14:08 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3myufyh746s2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3myatmyktfkqcSlow down there maestro, there's a *New* Mexico? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEJzXbqyU8A19 Oct 2026 19:19 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3myatmyktfkqchttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3my5j5w645k2pWilmette gets its moment in the sun for... our new Hermès store https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/hermes-us-emerging-markets-suburbs-f6d19b5818 Oct 2026 11:34 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3my5j5w645k2phttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxz3iew7bczlTime to rename the Scaramucci metric Trump says new White House press secretary Katie Zacharia should ‘reconsider’ job https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/16/trump-katie-zacharia-white-house.html16 Oct 2026 17:19 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxz3iew7bczlhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxyp7enye2f2Come for the CHF analysis, stay for THREE STRAIGHT FX PUNS [contains quote post or other embedded content]16 Oct 2026 13:39 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxyp7enye2f2https://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxyholeess2bWanted to finish listening to the full album first before reading the review but can confirm it's excellent https://www.ft.com/content/739649c1-faed-4ed5-9f70-65eca4584dd7?syn-25a6b1a6=116 Oct 2026 11:24 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxyholeess2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxw7xj4hic26September Core CPI: Hotter September Core PPI: Hotter October Philly Fed Prices: Hotter October Empire Manufacturing Index Prices: Hotter Fed rate path: Marginally changed15 Oct 2026 14:01 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxw7xj4hic26https://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxtveous422lGood day to post given some pretty brutal stock performances today ($CRWV, $ORCL, etc)... It’s not just "Mag 7 vs the 493," it's just as much about the market's ruthless sorting mechanism dictated by the cost of capital https://yontodd.substack.com/p/the-one-trick-economy-cembalest-42-stock-mirage https://yontodd.substack.com/p/the-one-trick-economy-cembalest-42-stock-mirage?r=2fwz14 Oct 2026 15:46 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxtveous422lhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxtmbsd25c2oPost-CPI, Fed rate path basically just reverting to where it was 3 weeks ago14 Oct 2026 13:03 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxtmbsd25c2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxqwffck5k2vThe Winklevoss' $GEMI upgraded at Citi... I would say I don't think I realized its down ~91% from its ATH (on it's first day of trading!), but I probably haven't thought about this company since the day of its IPO either13 Oct 2026 11:26 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxqwffck5k2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxomlarhx22dThe gap between the market year-end 2027 pricing (4.685%) vs SEP (4.125%) still a problem. Warsh's minimum communications strategy makes that a big risk overhang...12 Oct 2026 13:25 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxomlarhx22dhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxmaahdizc2kLove my Lightning, that thing better last literally forever [contains quote post or other embedded content]11 Oct 2026 14:39 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxmaahdizc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxjsnebnt22x [contains quote post or other embedded content]10 Oct 2026 15:30 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxjsnebnt22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxjpxyosec2v“In 2010, every member of the Forbes 400 was wealthy enough to have bought Liverpool Football Club for less than half their net worth. Today, despite the enormous increase in global wealth over the intervening period, just 88 of them could do the same.“ [contains quote post or other embedded content]10 Oct 2026 14:43 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxjpxyosec2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxjp3dywrc27Compute demand isn’t slowing, and 8% borrowing costs aren't the problem when GPU projects generate 25% IRRs. The real vulnerability is token price deflation squeezing cash flows while carrying high single-digit coupons. https://substack.com/@yontodd/note/p-219721823?r=2fwz&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action10 Oct 2026 14:27 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxjp3dywrc27https://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxjnuny4ic2mApparently the break has been good for Chelsea…10 Oct 2026 14:05 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxjnuny4ic2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxh5q3hdfcfoMichigan Current Conditions in chart form [contains quote post or other embedded content]09 Oct 2026 14:11 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxh5q3hdfcfohttps://bsky.app/profile/yontodd.substack.com/post/3mxh5oo2i6kfo*Another* Cook investigation https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/fed-lisa-cook-trump.html09 Oct 2026 14:10 +0000at://did:plc:d3npvqzrc7wxt37t4o7ryt76/app.bsky.feed.post/3mxh5oo2i6kfo