Democratic politcal strategist who also tracks early ballots. Numbers are approximate. @Uplift Campaignshttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mz5dhtetkk2o1.54M have been received by 10/29 (Day 23). Around this time is when elections departments start shifting their focus to Election Day activities. The first drop on election night is around this total. As of Day 23 the % of ballots by party are 🔵37.2 % | 🔴 37.8% | ⚪25%31 Oct 2026 03:17 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz5dhtetkk2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mz5btlpndc2zAZ Early Voting Day 24 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 1.55M | 35.4% 🔵: 575k | 46.5% 🔴: 585k | 38.5% ⚪: 386k | 24.0% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +10k Rep (2nd day of decline) Pima County +27k Additional county updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j31 Oct 2026 02:48 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz5btlpndc2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mz43e7mqbc25AZ Early Voting Day 24 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 1.51M | 34.7% 🔵: 561k | 45.4% 🔴: 578k | 37.9% ⚪: 377k | 23.4% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +14.1k Rep Pima County +18k Additional county updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j30 Oct 2026 15:19 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz43e7mqbc25https://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mz2xdaqsns2sAmongst 2022 voters, 164k have decided to vote early instead of on election day. Totals by party: 🔵47k | 🔴77k | ⚪40k. A 30k net advantage for the GOP vs Dems. In 2022 the Dems were +22k in ballot advantage. Currently they are at -13.7k. That's a 35k ballot swing.30 Oct 2026 04:35 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz2xdaqsns2shttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mz2v27a6k22fAZ Early Voting Day 23 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 1.45M | 33.3% 🔵: 541k | 43.8% 🔴: 556k | 36.5% ⚪: 358k | 22.2% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +14.8k Rep Pima County +18k Additional county updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j30 Oct 2026 03:54 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz2v27a6k22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myzljjpn222iAZ Early Voting Day 23 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 1.42M | 32.5% 🔵: 528k | 42.7% 🔴: 544k | 35.8% ⚪: 349k | 21.7% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +16.6k Rep Maricopa County +119.5k 👀 Additional county updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j 1/229 Oct 2026 15:31 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myzljjpn222ihttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myyh5rowss23Comparing to 2022 Day 21 everything looks pretty much the same in terms of turnout. Overall is even, Dem & Rep are +1.5% and +1.1% Indy turnout is down -1.3%. The biggest change is that to keep increased turnout, GOP has returned 33k more ballots than 2022.29 Oct 2026 04:40 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myyh5rowss23https://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myycrb5gx22kAZ Early Voting Day 22 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 1.29M | 29.5% 🔵: 482k | 39.0% 🔴: 496k | 32.6% ⚪: 309k | 19.2% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +14.8k Rep Pima County +96.8k Additional county updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j29 Oct 2026 03:21 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myycrb5gx22khttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myx2loa2yk2sAZ Early Voting Day 22 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 1.24 M | 28.4% 🔵: 463k | 37.5% 🔴: 480k | 31.5% ⚪: 297k | 18.4% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +13k Rep Maricopa County +96.8k Additional county updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j28 Oct 2026 15:22 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myx2loa2yk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myvotxuiw22oAZ Early Voting Day 21 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 1.14 M | 26.2% 🔵: 429k | 34.7% 🔴: 444k | 29.2% ⚪: 269k | 16.7% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +13k Rep Pima County +35.4k Additional county updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j28 Oct 2026 02:20 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myvotxuiw22ohttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myukx5jo5k2iAZ Early Voting Day 21 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 1.07M 🎉 | 24.6% 🔵: 404k | 32.7% 🔴: 417k | 27.4% ⚪: 252k | 15.7% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +13k Rep Maricopa County +100k Additional county updates below* Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j27 Oct 2026 15:37 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myukx5jo5k2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mytc5ghzgc2rAZ Early Voting Day 20 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 939k | 21.5% 🔵: 354k | 28.7% 🔴: 364k | 24.0% ⚪: 220k | 13.7% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +7.5k Rep Pima County +17.4k Additional county updates below* Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j27 Oct 2026 03:27 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mytc5ghzgc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mys4jjklts2mAZ Early Voting Day 20 Returns | Turnout Total: 939k | 21.5% 🔵: 354k | 28.7% 🔴: 364k | 24.0% ⚪: 220k | 13.7% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +10k Rep Maricopa County +53.2k Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j26 Oct 2026 16:14 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mys4jjklts2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myqpyoloq22cSunday night check in on who is switching when they vote. 77k 2022 voters have changed from voting on election day to voting early (🔴38k, 🔵21k, ⚪18k) A net of 17k for the GOP. Thru day 16 of EV the Dems had a 22.5k advantage in 2022. That advantage is +2.5k GOP in 202626 Oct 2026 02:57 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myqpyoloq22chttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myphcgfhlc2lAZ Early Voting Day 19 Returns | Turnout Total: 885k | 20.3% 🔵: 336k | 27.2% 🔴: 343k | 22.5% ⚪: 206k | 12.8% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +6.6k Rep Apache County +5.2k Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j25 Oct 2026 14:49 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myphcgfhlc2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myn5z72wqc2cAZ Early Voting Day 18 Returns | Turnout Total: 880k | 20.1% 🔵: 333k | 27% 🔴: 341k | 22.4% ⚪: 206k | 12.8% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +8.2k Rep County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j 1/224 Oct 2026 16:57 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myn5z72wqc2chttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mylpvaaof22wSome believe the best time to post wonky data in on Friday night. Those people are not social media savants. Anyway 🚨wonky data alert 🚨. Let's dive into some vote history breakdowns! Compared to the past 2 midterms, 4x4 voters are making up the majority of voters (63%).24 Oct 2026 03:12 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mylpvaaof22whttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myllwwwpnk2cAZ Early Voting Day 17 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 861K | 19.7% 🔵: 328k | 26.6% 🔴: 332k | 21.8% ⚪: 201k | 12.5% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +3.9k Rep County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j24 Oct 2026 02:01 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myllwwwpnk2chttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mykocu5zck2lAZ Early Voting Day 17 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 848k | 19.4% 🔵: 324k | 26.2% 🔴: 326k | 21.4% ⚪: 198k | 12.3% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +1.7 Rep (GOP advantage expected to remain) Maricopa County: +53.2k Pima County +17.4k Additional County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j23 Oct 2026 17:11 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mykocu5zck2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myjbfgj6lc2l2026 Turnout is nearly identical to this time in 2022. Dem (+1.1%) & GOP (+0.7%) TO is up slightly. Independent TO is down 0.6% The big shift is there are more GOP returns (+20k) and more Indy returns (+6.5k). If I have the time, I'll do some Friday vote history posting.23 Oct 2026 03:47 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myjbfgj6lc2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myjb64ku3c2lHere's the Dem - Rep ballot advantage for 26, 22, and 18 2022 Dems had an advantage throughout early voting then crashed on election day ending at +200k GOP 2018 Dems lost their small advantage on Day 5. Eventually ending +158k GOP In play this year in the widened GOP registration advantage.23 Oct 2026 03:43 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myjb64ku3c2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myj7yvn4ec2vAZ Early Voting Day 16 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 762k | 17.5% 🔵: 293k | 23.7% 🔴: 293k | 19.3% ⚪: 177k | 11% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +155 Rep Pima County +13k Additional County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j23 Oct 2026 03:22 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myj7yvn4ec2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myhylz6d6222AZ Early Voting Day 16 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 736k | 16.8% 🔵: 283k | 22.9% 🔴: 282k | 18.5% ⚪: 171k | 10.6% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +811 Dem Maricopa County +69k Additional County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j22 Oct 2026 15:37 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myhylz6d6222https://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mygnpg4ed22tAZ Early Voting Day 15 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 660k | 15.3% 🔵: 255k | 20.9% 🔴: 252k | 16.7% ⚪: 152k | 9.6% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +3k Dem (Pima update flipped it back) Pima County +15k Additional County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j22 Oct 2026 02:49 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mygnpg4ed22thttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mygnnb2w6c2tAZ Early Voting Day 15 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 660k | 15.3% 🔵: 255k | 20.9% 🔴: 252k | 16.7% ⚪: 152k | 9.6% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +3k Dem (Pima update flipped it back) Pima County +15k Additional County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j22 Oct 2026 02:48 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mygnnb2w6c2thttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myedlrasbs2xComparing back to Day 13 of 2022 early voting, turnout and returns are slightly up in 2026. Total TO +1.1% Dem TO +2.4% GOP TO +1.6% Other TO +0.2% Dem advantage is present, but lower than 2022. I'm curious to see if the change is WHEN Republicans are voting or if they are new.21 Oct 2026 04:43 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myedlrasbs2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mye6jcvhzk2nAZ Early Voting Day 14 (PM) Returns | Turnout Total: 554K | 12.6% 🔵: 211k | 17.3% 🔴: 208k | 13.8% ⚪: 124k | 7.8% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +2.9k D Pima County +36k Additional County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j21 Oct 2026 03:12 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mye6jcvhzk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mycxjrtovc2qAZ Early Voting Day 14 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 474k | 11% 🔵: 184k | 15.2% 🔴: 181k | 12% ⚪: 109k | 6.9% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +2.8k D Maricopa County +76k Additional County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j20 Oct 2026 15:34 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mycxjrtovc2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3mybp64ykxc22AZ Early Voting Day 13 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 383k | 8.9% 🔵: 151k | 12.4% 🔴: 145k | 9.6% ⚪: 87.6k | 5.5% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +6k D Pima County +24k Additional County updates below Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j20 Oct 2026 03:32 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3mybp64ykxc22https://bsky.app/profile/sfalmy.bsky.social/post/3myagtjiv7s2pAZ Early Voting Day 13 (AM) Returns | Turnout Total: 355k | 8.2% 🔵: 138k | 11.4% 🔴: 136k | 9.0% ⚪: 81k | 5.1% Dem vs Rep Advantage: +1.8k D County updates below Maricopa County +52k Dashboard Link: tinyurl.com/3ukshf3j 1/219 Oct 2026 15:30 +0000at://did:plc:duwheyfn74ayloqbaacgufo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3myagtjiv7s2p