Chief EM Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics | India and ASEAN | Alumnus of RSIS, NTU | Adopted Brit | via SGP | Est. QC, Philippines 📍Newcastle, UKhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzl4dk2lx22iSeems warranted, especially with Q3 GDP likely to come in the mid-3% range: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40073097. #Thailand05 Nov 2026 14:47 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzl4dk2lx22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzl44tq4bc2iYes, but... https://jakartaglobe.id/business/indonesias-economy-jumps-547-in-q3 ...the acceleration was driven mainly by import growth slowing and the contribution from inventories jumping up with the help of base effects. Not exactly inspiring stuff. #Indonesia05 Nov 2026 14:43 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzl44tq4bc2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzl42oqpkc2iMy colleague, Meekita's, latest for #PantheonMacro - “#Taiwan no longer aiming to be a “nuclear-free homeland”” lnkd.in/euy2UfJS05 Nov 2026 14:42 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzl42oqpkc2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzibimitok2gMy latest for #PantheonMacro - “Could Vietnamese exports hit something of a ceiling shortly?” lnkd.in/eUhCGSeF04 Nov 2026 11:41 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzibimitok2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzhsw5hlls25“We’re estimating if the policy is already appropriate [and] if inflation would sustain its downtrend. So, we won’t tighten further,” December pause in play? I wrote after the October hike that there would be a pathway to this. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 07:20 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzhsw5hlls25https://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzhsskeqz225"...#BSP chief said it was too early to tell when it could begin reversing its rate hikes, noting that inflation typically takes time to respond to tighter policy." (https://business.inquirer.net/619443/bsp-signals-rate-cuts-still-distant-amid-high-inflation) Well, not this kind of supply-side shock, with high base effects a big factor in 2027.04 Nov 2026 07:18 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzhsskeqz225https://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzhsngb5as2rI'll believe it when I see it: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2335713/palace-budget-red-flags-can-lead-again-to-marcos-veto #Philippines04 Nov 2026 07:16 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzhsngb5as2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzhquecgzk2rNot a fan of the branding, but the general thrust of the substance will rightly #Thailand win a lot of plaudits in the market: https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/4007308904 Nov 2026 06:44 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzhquecgzk2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzfuogbnjc2g"#Vietnam needs to keep total investment in the economy at around 40% of GDP, he said." (https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/economy/vietnam-needs-300b-in-annual-investment-productivity-gains-to-achieve-double-digit-growth-5139710.html) So, we're about 10pp below that ambition. That's a chunky gap.03 Nov 2026 12:47 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzfuogbnjc2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzfsazrsu22gFile this under "not news": https://www.nationthailand.com/business/economy/40073029 #Thailand03 Nov 2026 12:03 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzfsazrsu22ghttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzfrmhtcpk2g'Demographics is destiny' kind of thing: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/india-will-become-the-worlds-largest-economy-by-end-of-the-century-predicts-top-economist-jeffrey-d-sachs/articleshow/135480470.cms#google_vignette. Hard to argue against that. #India03 Nov 2026 11:52 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzfrmhtcpk2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzfrkvpan22g10% inflation for Q4 sounds overly, overly pessimistic to me: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/no-water-to-sow-no-respite-at-the-grocery-store-indias-prolonged-food-inflation-worry/articleshow/135485480.cms. Worth remembering that base effects will start to help quite a bit from December. #India03 Nov 2026 11:51 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzfrkvpan22ghttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzfrdc6w5c2gMy latest for #PantheonMacro - “Reassuring data dump for #BankIndonesia, in a number of ways” lnkd.in/ebFU6Qnk03 Nov 2026 11:47 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzfrdc6w5c2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzdfza3trk25Punchy, for sure, but also flattered by Diwali-related calendar effects (low base last year): https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/indias-october-gross-gst-collections-jump-22-9-to-rs-2-31-lakh-crore/articleshow/135420137.cms. Adjusting for noise shows that growth is closer to 17%. #India02 Nov 2026 13:19 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzdfza3trk25https://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzd6nhrquk2h#Vietnam's got space, fiscally, to fight this energy squeeze, and boy is it using it: https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1803324/viet-nam-cuts-fuel-tax-to-zero-petrol-prices-fall-by-up-to-vnd1-800-per-litre.html02 Nov 2026 11:07 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzd6nhrquk2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzd6h7blic2hThis one for #Vietnam: https://e.vnexpress.net/news/business/economy/vietnam-lowers-electricity-price-first-time-in-almost-20-years-5139302.html. [contains quote post or other embedded content]02 Nov 2026 11:03 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzd6h7blic2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzd6bgtzus2hWe're definitely on the dovish side, then, with our 7.3% forecast: https://business.inquirer.net/619248/poll-october-inflation-seen-hitting-over-3-yr-high-of-7-6. I expect no movement at all in food inflation, which probably will stay at 6.7% at most, with risks tiled to the downside. #Philippines02 Nov 2026 11:00 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzd6bgtzus2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzd5xz2iuc2hEarly input for everyone's November CPI forecast for #Indonesia: https://jakartaglobe.id/business/pertamina-private-fuel-retailers-keep-pump-prices-unchanged-for-november#goog_rewarded. Following today's softer-than-expected 3.25% print (though in line with our forecast).02 Nov 2026 10:55 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzd5xz2iuc2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzd53n44ms2hProbably a vulnerability most high-growth EMs will face in the foreseeable future, most just #India: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/chinas-5000-ton-digging-machines-are-a-trade-war-risk-to-india/articleshow/135443848.cms02 Nov 2026 10:39 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzd53n44ms2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mzd4p2n3ps2hMy colleague, Meekita's, latest for #PantheonMacro - “#Taiwan’s Q3 GDP acceleration not down entirely to AI boom” lnkd.in/e3Sdak_B02 Nov 2026 10:32 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzd4p2n3ps2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mz3mswgutc2wMy latest for #PantheonMacro - “Key IP details point to Indian GDP growth remaining elevated in Q3” lnkd.in/epVE6ucd30 Oct 2026 10:59 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz3mswgutc2whttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mz3faisbok2xOverheating risks FTW: https://vietnamnews.vn/economy/1803230/viet-nam-targets-growth-of-at-least-10-per-cent-in-2027-while-safeguarding-macroeconomic-stability.html #Vietnam30 Oct 2026 08:44 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz3faisbok2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mz3f55lhkc2x"Unlike in 2025, when rice imports were suspended during the final quarter..." (https://business.inquirer.net/618797/da-braces-for-costlier-rice-imports-amid-weak-peso) Yeah, that ban was short-sighted. Sigh. #Philippines30 Oct 2026 08:42 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz3f55lhkc2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mz3eyeoeh22xBit rich, this, coming from an administration that has been cutting down central transfers to local governments: https://www.thejakartapost.com/indonesia/2026/10/30/govt-passes-buck-on-free-meals-oversight?utm_source=(direct)&utm_medium=channel_indonesia #Indonesia30 Oct 2026 08:39 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz3eyeoeh22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3mz3eshgcis2xThink #India's next GDP print will be slightly stronger than this (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/finmin-pegs-q2-expansion-at-7-35flags-capital-pressure-over-us-yield/articleshow/135337576.cms), with a lot of favourable mechanical aspects - e.g. base effects in inventories, drag from statistical discrepancies probably (hopefully) won't be as large.30 Oct 2026 08:36 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3mz3eshgcis2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3myz2copkb225My latest for #PantheonMacro - "Big risks to BoT’s 2027 CPI view and, by extension, current pause" For more of our #EmergingAsia coverage, sign up for a free trial: lnkd.in/ebxA2qD629 Oct 2026 10:23 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3myz2copkb225https://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3myw3mztgvc23Great, but the question is when will these new rules come into play: https://www.nationthailand.com/news/policy/40072802. I believe this pause in data-centre construction was only supposed to last for a month. #Thailand28 Oct 2026 06:08 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3myw3mztgvc23https://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3myw32jl2dc23When supply responds to higher prices: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/india-seeks-bigger-share-of-diesel-exports-on-refining-capacity-boom/articleshow/135230814.cms #India28 Oct 2026 05:58 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3myw32jl2dc23https://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3myw2snsdus23This is a bad way to judge the scheme's 'success': https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/electronics/ashwini-vaishnaw-says-mobile-pli-scheme-generated-rs-25000-crore-in-direct-taxes-employs-12-lakh-people/articleshow/135249680.cms. #India28 Oct 2026 05:54 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3myw2snsdus23https://bsky.app/profile/miguelchanco.bsky.social/post/3myumj4bnc22tMy colleague, Meekita's, latest for #PantheonMacro - “#Taiwan’s GDP set for another strong print, defying tougher base effects” lnkd.in/eNSyRXHd27 Oct 2026 16:05 +0000at://did:plc:ed4e5cg2eapacmgcksmguprk/app.bsky.feed.post/3myumj4bnc22t