Senior fellow @carnegieendow.bsky.social Nuclear, arms control, nonproliferation, new mil tech, Asia-Pacific security, US-China. Views my own. https://carnegieendowment.org/people/tong-zhao?lang=enhttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3mbu4pv2by22eU.S. norm-breaking will shape illiberal rivals’ behavior. For China, the Venezuela attack is likely to harden Beijing’s security calculus. My latest analysis for @carnegieendowment.org: https://carnegieendowment.org/emissary/2026/01/china-venezuela-taiwan-trump-security?lang=en07 Jan 2026 18:43 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3mbu4pv2by22ehttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3m7dk7wfgzc2jIt was a real pleasure chatting with @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social on the Strategic Simplicity Podcast and reflecting on China's recent white paper on arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Dec 2025 17:39 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3m7dk7wfgzc2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3m4iq224yds2dChina's next five-year plan promises to "strengthen and enlarge strategic deterrent capabilities," reaffirming China's commitment to continuing qualitative and quantitative growth of its nuclear arsenal. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3330774/chinas-next-5-year-plan-aims-narrow-nuclear-gap-us-and-russia-analysts-say?share=tbtniW5GdilP5XyDeq8vMK7OHba1e4%2Br5ZCkW8qx9bWsfEkeb52PpGSO%2F5Vjl3XJqeHBPCC2WdSimdRYIFpVlylTNbqW4whUN5FNPEW6OEyG8Fa9aNAVhtDLeyKvaqVmjPjpDe7OFTt73bW%2BJwgyaA%3D%3D&utm_campaign=social_share31 Oct 2025 14:51 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3m4iq224yds2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lzjlao7x2223Nuclear risks are rising as old safeguards fray. A new high-level bipartisan Task Force convened by @carnegieendowment.org, @nti.org, & @belfercenter.bsky.social lays out a blueprint to prevent an era of nuclear anarchy. @carnegienpp.bsky.social https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/09/preventing-nuclear-anarchy-nuclear-proliferation-and-american-security?lang=en23 Sep 2025 18:42 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lzjlao7x2223https://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lygwnhikns2sChina’s latest parade showcased unprecedented nuclear power. In this @carnegieendowment.org short video, I explain why the buildup isn’t serving China’s goals—and how Beijing can help strengthen a rules-based nuclear order. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aaf3DjoExD010 Sep 2025 00:03 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lygwnhikns2shttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lxzaxroqqc2aBeijing’s stunning display of nuclear power at its recent military parade is striking. In @economist.com, I explain why China should resist fueling arms races and instead champion a rules-based nuclear order. https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2025/09/03/china-should-not-fuel-an-arms-race-says-a-close-watcher-of-its-nuclear-policy04 Sep 2025 13:31 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxzaxroqqc2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lxfepb5qjs2xEnjoyed discussing the politics behind China's nuclear policy shift with @nktpnd.bsky.social on @warontherocks.bsky.social' Thinking the Unthinkable podcast: https://warontherocks.com/episode/thinkingtheunthinkable/35594/the-politics-behind-chinas-nuclear-shift/27 Aug 2025 15:44 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxfepb5qjs2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lvo4eyncvs25Happy to share my @foreignpolicy.com analysis on China's potential adoption of launch-under-attack policy for its nuclear forces, including the security impact of this major policy shift and potential measures to mitigate risks of inadvertent nuclear escalation. https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/05/china-nuclear-weapons-launch-policy-strategy/05 Aug 2025 16:19 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvo4eyncvs25https://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lsgwundvg22qThanks @apln.network for the opportunity to make a few comments on the implications of Israeli-US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities for nonproliferation and regional security in and beyond the Middle East, including in the Asia Pacific region. Link below.25 Jun 2025 15:36 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lsgwundvg22qhttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lo6yqvpync2aAs China sees a new era of "strategic stalemate" with the US, what does it mean for bilateral security—arms racing, crisis stability, and conflict risk? My analysis in @foreignaffairs.com https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/will-china-escalate02 May 2025 14:08 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lo6yqvpync2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lltyohluds24How does China envision the expansion of #BRICS? What's its strategy for enhancing engagement with Global South countries through BRICS to bolster its economic, security, & normative power? My analysis for @carnegieendowment.org's new report on BRICS expansion: https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2025/03/brics-expansion-and-the-future-of-world-order-perspectives-from-member-states-partners-and-aspirants?lang=en02 Apr 2025 18:17 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lltyohluds24https://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3ljbqas46uc2tShift in logic: Biden admin: Ukraine's fight defends a rules-based order—vital to US; Ukraine soldiers & lives lost are priceless contributions to a joint struggle. Trump admin: Ukraine's fight is irrelevant to US interests & its sacrifice is a waste; Ukr owes US for one-sided aid & generosity.01 Mar 2025 01:07 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3ljbqas46uc2thttps://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lcych4rsg223Look forward to this @csis.org online discussion: Confronting Armageddon: Wargaming Nuclear Deterrence and Its Failures in a U.S.-China Conflict over Taiwan December 13, 2024, 1:30 – 2:30 pm EST https://www.csis.org/events/confronting-armageddon-wargaming-nuclear-deterrence-and-its-failures-us-china-conflict-over10 Dec 2024 22:35 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcych4rsg223https://bsky.app/profile/tongzhao.bsky.social/post/3lcvbxwhnb22iHonored to join distinguished experts discussing nuclear policy under a new Trump administration in the latest Arms Control Today @armscontrolnow.bsky.social My contribution: "Dangerous Parallax: Chinese-U.S. Nuclear Risks in Trump's Second Term" https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-12/features/trump-regain-control-us-nuclear-policy-now-what09 Dec 2024 17:49 +0000at://did:plc:eiscznii33ldvt6tiydqu5uc/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcvbxwhnb22i