Chief UK Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.https://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3mm72b4vp7k2cLet's just say that UK payrolls for April published today are quite unlikely to be giving an accurate steer on April job growth.19 May 2026 09:10 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3mm72b4vp7k2chttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3m7zijx5nns25The fiscal rules add a lot of noise and little else, it's time to drop them and focus on the actions needed to deliver sustainable fiscal policy. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ballot-box-market-discipline-rather-than-rules-constrain-robert-wood-ahbhe15 Dec 2025 11:08 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3m7zijx5nns25https://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lyn6jz3r2c2xUK inflation expectations are modestly deanchored. 5-year ahead expectations higher than when inflation was in double digits and the survey is biased vs. history down by a method change in 2020. Paging MPC.12 Sep 2025 11:40 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lyn6jz3r2c2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3luzms5tddk25You've got to the love the UK CBI retailing survey. Volatile much? But for what it's worth, sales for the time of the year reach the strongest in 14 months in July.28 Jul 2025 12:47 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3luzms5tddk25https://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3luz3pccshc25UK payrolls driven by NICS rather than weak demand. Sectors with high share of part-time workers—whose employment costs rise most after NICS hike—and self-employment—opportunity to cut tax liability by switching from employee status—see payrolls most. Latter means payrolls exaggerates job falls.28 Jul 2025 07:41 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3luz3pccshc25https://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lurpl36jxc2lUK political views increasingly seem to be driving responses to consumer sentiment—a phenomenon seen for some surveys in the US too—making them a less reliable leading indicator.25 Jul 2025 09:15 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lurpl36jxc2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lu5lq5alps2gWhich do you believe? Payrolls that just got massively revised, or the other two series which are also revision prone and in the case of the LFS not firing on all cylinders yet. Jobs falling or rising solidly?....What the MPC would give for accurate data.17 Jul 2025 09:13 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lu5lq5alps2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lu5jl6usgk2gSurprise, surprise, UK payrolls were revised up bang in line with their typical pattern. The question is, why would anyone believe the dodgy first estimates from this series showing tanking jobs? With a typical revision to June data, job falls are easing now.17 Jul 2025 08:34 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lu5jl6usgk2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3ltedcsle722lShall we call it the estate agents' PMI?07 Jul 2025 08:06 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3ltedcsle722lhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lqrmnkdcek2iHere's the thing about the UK PMI. The higher uncertainty goes the worse an indicator of growth the PMI becomes. Policy uncertainty was nearly 5 standard deviations above normal in April/May, so the PMI is giving a far too pessimistic steer.04 Jun 2025 10:42 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lqrmnkdcek2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lqmin3sqc22mCautious consumers you say? Retail sales growing the fastest in 3 years and now liquid asset accumulation dropping sharply. For my money the ONS saving rate data are wrong—they often revise it down sharply. Consumers will keep GDP growth ticking along.02 Jun 2025 09:47 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lqmin3sqc22mhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lpo3nuguqs2yThe MPC will struggle to cut twice more this year after inflation surged to 3.5%, well above consensus of 3.3% but close to our call of 3.6%. Administered prices drove the surge, and there was a small Easter boost, but underlying pressures are stubborn. 'Skips' are likely now.21 May 2025 07:35 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lpo3nuguqs2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3llgjzwaqn22oAre more bad data leading us to misdiagnose the UK economy. Put another way can we really trust that the UK cash saving rate rose to an all-time high in Q4 2024 as the ONS reported this morning? The chart is startling, with households saving 12.0% of their income in Q4 (1/n)28 Mar 2025 09:50 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3llgjzwaqn22ohttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3llgdmmn4hc24Retail sales continue their rebound after the Budget knocked confidence for a couple of months. Retail sales volumes have been trending up pretty solidly since late 2023 and 3m year-over-year growth reached the highest since March 2022. GDP growth will rebound in Q1.28 Mar 2025 07:55 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3llgdmmn4hc24https://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3llcf3gees22kMeanwhile, in other news that may have gone under the radar today. Uh-oh. Household 5-10 year ahead inflation expectations rise to the highest since October 2022, when actual inflation was 11.1%. Anchored these are not. Paging Andrew Bailey.....26 Mar 2025 18:11 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3llcf3gees22khttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3llceeepegs2aFiscal statements are quite something to watch. The Chancellor talked a good game, but ultimately Ms. Reeves plans to borrow more in every year of the OBR's forecasts and raised spending in the near-term. Make me virtuous, but not yet (1/n)26 Mar 2025 17:58 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3llceeepegs2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3ll4rz3crpk2xAh, PMI day. Always fun. Job cuts apparently moved from as bad as the month after Lehman's bankruptcy, to merely as bad as last October—when payrolls rose. We all know the problems: qualitative survey; responses can reflect sentiment. Treat with plenty of salt.24 Mar 2025 12:46 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3ll4rz3crpk2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lkut2lykhk2gThe latest disaster at the ONS. I wonder if they'll cease all data publication before too long. In all seriousness, if labour market, trade and PPI data can't be trusted, there must be questions about what other errors and problems are lurking that we haven't found out yet.21 Mar 2025 08:43 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkut2lykhk2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lktcgbm5wk2vContrast BoE MPC minutes. Dec. 2024 "Monetary policy **was acting** to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations were anchored at the 2% target." Mar. 2025 "Monetary policy **would act** to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations were anchored at the 2% target."20 Mar 2025 18:13 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lktcgbm5wk2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lkszzfomws2zJob growth is far from great, but it does seem to be improving from a soft patch in the second half of last year. Payroll tax hikes are a risk to employment, but the blood-curdling business warnings are failing to show up in the hard data. We expect that to continue; jobs will hold up.20 Mar 2025 15:43 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkszzfomws2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lkswp7h4x22rThe BoE turned more cautious. They added flexibility to skip a quarterly cut and raised concern about inflation persistence, adding that policy would anchor expectations. They have been far too sanguine about expectations, but they are well above normal levels. The MPC needs to be careful.20 Mar 2025 14:43 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkswp7h4x22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3lkdfw3ihq222The latest Bank of England inflation attitudes survey shows long-term expectations high and rising, especially once we adjust for the structural break in the BoE data in 2020. The MPC is wrong to assume this year's inflation rise will have no second-round effects.14 Mar 2025 10:33 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkdfw3ihq222https://bsky.app/profile/robwoodecon.bsky.social/post/3liocgcgbbk2kA clear picture is emerging about the UK economy late last year. A temporary slowdown, rather than collapse. Growth dipped in October as consumers worried about tax hikes, but spending has rebounded. Retail sales rose 1.0% November-to-January, matching GDP improvement (1/2)21 Feb 2025 07:39 +0000at://did:plc:elmw6ozilomgz5lluswqo7gt/app.bsky.feed.post/3liocgcgbbk2k