Likes: Tornadoes, Aurora, Wildlife, Environmental Science, Volcanoes, Iceland, Italy. Dislikes: A longer list than above. Forecasting blog: https://antonfalco.substack.com/ Photography site: https://www.antonfalco.com/ The rest: linktr.ee/antonfalcohttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3muifqjx2mk2xI cover the synoptic meteorology and potential outcomes for severe weather that will be possible across Southern Ontario for September 2nd, 2026. Risks include: damaging winds, hail, torrential rain and a more conditional risk for tornadoes either embedded within a squall line youtu.be/FIHL4QbN-HE https://youtu.be/FIHL4QbN-HE01 Sep 2026 21:51 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3muifqjx2mk2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3muib375bkc2lHamilton (YHM) August Summary: -Right on average high & low temperatures (again). -Exceeding double the average monthly rain -More flash flooding just outside city bounds. -Lunar Eclipse & Weather Event Coverage https://antonfalco.substack.com/p/hamiltons-august-2026-climatology?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true01 Sep 2026 20:28 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3muib375bkc2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3muffieuous2fI discuss the severe weather setup and tornado risk, within the north west flow, for Southern Ontario and the US over the next few days. https://antonfalco.substack.com/p/severe-weather-risk-for-southern-293?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true31 Aug 2026 17:09 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3muffieuous2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3msh4cllbvc2qWith Environment Canada expected to switch to a polygon style warning system soon, I discuss what it is and the weaknesses of the previous system (that I'm sure many Canadians have personally dealt with over the years). https://antonfalco.substack.com/p/environment-canada-to-switch-to-polygon?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true06 Aug 2026 22:39 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3msh4cllbvc2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3ms7gpwtt3k27I discuss the meteorology behind the second flash flooding event across parts of Southern Ontario in 14 days. The synoptic setup was a bit different than before, but more widespread across the day. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/localized-flash-floodingagainon-august?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true03 Aug 2026 21:25 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms7gpwtt3k27https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3ms4ekokyfc2tIt isn’t quite Déjà vu to July 21st, but yet another high moisture, training storm event, tracking SW to NE, produces heavy rain in similar areas as before. My area saw about 1.5 inches of rain in an hour, but the bullseye zone seems to be near Simcoe.02 Aug 2026 16:08 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms4ekokyfc2thttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3ms2do2sa6k2oHamilton (YHM) July Summary: -Right on average high & low temperatures. -Below average rain month, but near record flash flooding just outside city bounds. -Wildfire smoke from northern Ontario invades the area mid month https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/hamiltons-july-2026-climatology-vs?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true01 Aug 2026 20:46 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3ms2do2sa6k2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mrbhgehrsk2sI discuss the meteorology behind the deluge of rainfall east of Hamilton, Ontario yesterday that dropped 100 mm+ (over 4 inches of rain) in just over an hour. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/localized-flash-flooding-four-inches?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true22 Jul 2026 23:17 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mrbhgehrsk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mqushozlns27I discuss the severe weather risk for Southern & Eastern Ontario for tomorrow: July 18th, 2026. A few factors (ongoing convection, lingering smoke, energy return) may impact the peak of event potential. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/severe-weather-risk-for-southern?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true17 Jul 2026 22:30 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqushozlns27https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mqp4dfhu5s23I discuss the synoptic overview of the wildfire smoke invading the Greater Toronto area and parts of the northeast, with air quality impacted for several more days. youtu.be/yNluspn7DOo https://youtu.be/yNluspn7DOo15 Jul 2026 16:11 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqp4dfhu5s23https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mqnis5nmpc26Northeast seasonal allergy sufferers thinking they're out of the worst of it after hitting July. July:15 Jul 2026 00:48 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqnis5nmpc26https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mqn35qcg5k2qI wanted to give my first video forecast for the Quebec/Maine severe weather risk later today. Tornadoes are a concern among discrete storms later today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBZulSozSCU14 Jul 2026 20:44 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqn35qcg5k2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mpmpsectdk2bHamilton (YHM) June Summary: -Right on average high & low temperatures. -Very wet month, with one day carrying 52% of the monthly rainfall. -Very active June for tornadoes in the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/hamiltons-june-2026-climatology-vs?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true01 Jul 2026 23:56 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mpmpsectdk2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mphfiitat22nI discuss the hot and muggy conditions expected across the northeast and Great Lakes this week (June 29th through July 5th). I cover why this is occurring and the severe weather risk that will likely be around much of this week. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/building-east-coast-ridge-means-hot?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true29 Jun 2026 21:08 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mphfiitat22nhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mpa7cr7nsc2dI discuss the Glencoe, Ontario tornado from yesterday (June 25th, 2026). I cover the synoptic setup and any mesoscale interactions that may have influenced tornadogenesis. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/the-synoptic-setup-of-the-tornado?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true27 Jun 2026 00:29 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mpa7cr7nsc2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mp5c7t6hik2cI forgot to post this here yesterday. The current conditional risk mentioned yesterday is producing a tornado warned storm near Wyoming, Ontario. The interaction of the north and south cells will be of interest in the next few scans.25 Jun 2026 20:43 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mp5c7t6hik2chttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3moor5s5ukc2bIn this article, I discuss the next two days of severe weather expected across the Plains of the US, with yet another conditional risk in Illinois on Sunday. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/deja-vu-similar-areas-under-threat?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true20 Jun 2026 02:00 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3moor5s5ukc2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3moeowcbvz22dIn this article, I discuss the active severe weather pattern expected for the next two days across the central Plains of the US, with emphasis on Wednesday. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/more-severe-weather-in-familiar-areas?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true16 Jun 2026 01:54 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3moeowcbvz22dhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mnv4mrnads2qIn order: -cell merger -left split sheds -tornadogenesis The smaller cells interacting with the right side FFD may mean upscaling or mass growth. We'll see in a few scans.09 Jun 2026 21:16 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnv4mrnads2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mnsou4nh3s2fIn this article, I discuss the active severe weather pattern expected across the northern US and Canadian Plains this week. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/severe-weather-pattern-expected-ahead?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true08 Jun 2026 22:05 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnsou4nh3s2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mnq5ii4m2c2hI rag on Canadian radar velocities regularly, but S Band radars are so good at picking out obvious target boundaries. You rarely need satellite to confirm.07 Jun 2026 21:49 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnq5ii4m2c2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mnb7od4p5222Hamilton (YHM) May Summary: -Below average high & low temperatures. -Beginning and end dry stretches, middle was rainy. -Very quiet May for tornadoes in the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/hamiltons-may-2026-climatology-vs?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true01 Jun 2026 23:18 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnb7od4p5222https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mmpoyudh422bIn this article, I discuss the QLCS tornadoes that occurred in Southern Ontario, what they are, and the conditions from the May 19th event. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/multiple-qlcs-tornadoes-form-across?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true26 May 2026 00:04 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmpoyudh422bhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mm7zgbjd5227It’ll be a low risk due to likely linear nature, but highest chances of a quick spin up lie in zone with highest 3CAPE + maximized low level shear. SW flow will kill boundary layer energy near the cold lakes and maximize any discrete storm with highest residence time in best zone.19 May 2026 18:28 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mm7zgbjd5227https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mm5dpbab3223It’s that time of peak near lake temperature difference. You can ride your bike to temperatures nearly 40F less.18 May 2026 16:54 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mm5dpbab3223https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mltvq4rqwk2mIn this article, I discuss the weather pattern shift expected to bring much warmer weather to the northeast and severe weather across the Southern Plains and the midwest US. I will break down days individually if the expected synoptic parameters increase further. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/weather-pattern-shift-severe-weather?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true14 May 2026 22:50 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mltvq4rqwk2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3ml5hsuwiak23Hamilton (YHM) April Summary: -Well above average high & low temperatures. -Very rainy (17 days of rain). -Little snow (as expected). -Many tornadoes in the US. https://open.substack.com/pub/antonfalco/p/hamiltons-april-2026-climatology?r=lmrru&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true06 May 2026 00:42 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml5hsuwiak23https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mke6ijzwuc23Perhaps another interesting day of cell mergers [contains quote post or other embedded content]25 Apr 2026 23:19 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mke6ijzwuc23https://bsky.app/profile/antonfalcowx.bsky.social/post/3mkbqgxpa5s2fI discuss the impact of nudgers and convection on the Braman & Enid tornadoes in Oklahoma yesterday. I was impressed that two strong tornadoes, from two different supercells, gave a similar look, influenced by nudger/mergers, within an hour of travel distance. https://antonfalco.substack.com/p/similarities-abound-a-mesoscale-meteorological25 Apr 2026 00:02 +0000at://did:plc:ewmcbr54biglw6bxt3uusuid/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkbqgxpa5s2f