This is a heavily interactive web application, and JavaScript is required. Simple HTML interfaces are possible, but that is not what this is.
Post
Chris Hanretty
chanret.bsky.social
did:plc:fgb7yhrcolsvgta5m2k5ketm
Yes, the 99% figure is from "inside" the model. If you believe the model is correct, your probability should be 99%. If you believe the model is incorrect for (reasons), then it's not 99%. The value of providing comparisons with, e.g., other elections is that it's not model dependent in the same way
2024-07-03T11:08:25.681Z