A fool on a moor… born in Kitale, brought up in Les Alluets, studied economics at UCL and fell in love. 40 years later I’m still trying to figure out how it all works. https://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3ljl3qrnmr22uWe live in very strange times, in many different ways…04 Mar 2025 18:27 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3ljl3qrnmr22uhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3li2e4anjus26A ‘bad’ 0.1% rise in GDP is better than a 0.1% fall but the only way this helps in the medium term is if it’s indication that Christmas came to the UK late, rather than not at all. Making a note to pay attention to Jan retail sales, 7am, next Friday.13 Feb 2025 09:16 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3li2e4anjus26https://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lhdq5raias2oOur lessons in the art of the deal continue, but for the first time ever the UK’s dire balance of payments have allowed me to sell sterling at an improved rate. Small mercies but still…04 Feb 2025 09:21 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lhdq5raias2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lh6ugck27c24Can someone get Brad ‘“If Donald Trump doesn’t slow down, he may succeed at triggering a recession” Setser on here, please?02 Feb 2025 10:54 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lh6ugck27c24https://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lg3c7oclqs2lDuncan’s and the dollar debate. Economic exceptionalism took it to the moon, tariff terror took it to heights last seen nearly 40 years ago, until Reagan/Baker intervened. The difference this year may be that while it will fall back eventually, it won’t fall very far until/unless share prices do. [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 Jan 2025 07:25 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lg3c7oclqs2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lfwcuzsjws2sUK ‘stagflation’ bingo lasted less than a minute, as it appeared in the first newswire comment after this morning’s awful retail sales data (down 0.6% in Dec ex fuel) with food and online the weakest bits. Rate cuts are coming and some journo will write a “Rachel ruined Christmas” piece, no doubt.17 Jan 2025 07:53 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lfwcuzsjws2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lfru64ybqk27‘It's a jam-packed day in markets, with earnings season kicking off in earnest and the consumer-price index due. Will either event be able to kick stocks out of their latest slump?’ journo email this morning. SPX has trebled in the last decade but a 4% fall from the peak qualifies as a ‘slump’.15 Jan 2025 13:19 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lfru64ybqk27https://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lfrcl2onj22cUK inflation edged down to 2.5%, core to 3.2%. Gilt relief, pound a little firmer, even if softness in alcohol, tobacco, clothing, restaurants and hotels points to a low-key, not-so-joyous Christmas mood.15 Jan 2025 08:04 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lfrcl2onj22chttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lfhkgaow3s2d“When bond markets get sticky, it is unhelpful to be the ugliest horse in the glue factory” wrote someone… trouble is, bonds might get stickier. Next stop, US CPI on Wednesday. Hibernation appeals more and more.11 Jan 2025 10:58 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lfhkgaow3s2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lervvjnbps2wSo who is Donald Trump’s James Baker (without whom the dollar is going to go on overshooting until we’re way past silly)? This from the NYT02 Jan 2025 20:25 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lervvjnbps2whttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lejvcdiiyk2sJimmy Carter signing the Humphrey Hawkins act into law in 1978….30 Dec 2024 15:53 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lejvcdiiyk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3ldmfmthsts2eThe Canadian dollar has been plunging! Full Stop [contains quote post or other embedded content]18 Dec 2024 22:25 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3ldmfmthsts2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3ldgl5sgwtk2xNo-one pays attention to US PMI data; they’re only publishing them to show off, at this stage.16 Dec 2024 14:48 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3ldgl5sgwtk2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3ld6ehnpub22xA new take on the merits of the four day working week. Henry Ford was widely criticised for introducing a 5-day back in the day, but it boosted productivity… [contains quote post or other embedded content]13 Dec 2024 08:27 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3ld6ehnpub22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lcf6by5mo222@robarmstrong.bsky.social Unhedged piece this morning (US bubble, China Japanification) is fab.03 Dec 2024 08:00 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcf6by5mo222https://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lbyuv22jds2wA primer in Trump’s geo-political playbook - get their attention, talk, declare victory - and a nightmare for currency traders in search of a quiet life! He talked the dollar up to the top of the hill, then…. [contains quote post or other embedded content]28 Nov 2024 10:40 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbyuv22jds2whttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lbsetaompc2jThe Bessent rally, or month-end and time to pause? Equities up, yields down, dollar down as DT Opts for a grownup at Treasury. Probably as much positioning & month-end as reaction to the Treasury Sec nominee, but it makes markets less correlated and more interesting for the rest of 202425 Nov 2024 20:37 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbsetaompc2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lbaqepif3226Today’s goes down as a Monday-ish Monday. Dollar ran out of enthusiasm as yields fell, allowing equities to limp into positive territory. Stage 1 of the election rally over? There will be no big turn however, until European policymakers dream up ways of investing European excess savings at home.18 Nov 2024 20:15 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbaqepif3226https://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lb5ffj3fak2vIt’s obviously been raining less here than in Spain. Link to @katie0martin.bsky.social ‘s piece on Europe’s woes. The market (as opposed to policy/govt/leadership/OFFS do something) question is at what point markets have overpriced US exceptionalism so much too much that I can buy the useless euro? [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Nov 2024 12:21 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lb5ffj3fak2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lb3kp4xy322mThis is, btw, a very entertaining game of rugby16 Nov 2024 18:51 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lb3kp4xy322mhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lb3ctroh5s2mI read an article over breakfast discussing the 12-3-30 workout, another fad I missed. 12% gradient on a treadmill at 3mph for 30 minutes, burns 300 calories. No treadmill in Devon but a lane promising 20% so I wandered up Pupers Hill. Garmin says 3 miles, 1 hour, 7.5% gradient, 360 calories.16 Nov 2024 16:30 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lb3ctroh5s2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lb2ntzy5fs22This wins. No point writing anything today; I’m going up a hill instead. [contains quote post or other embedded content]16 Nov 2024 10:14 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lb2ntzy5fs22https://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3laylhn5kcs2oStrong retail sales, soft manufacturing and a super-strong dollar. Not sure DT is going to approve! [contains quote post or other embedded content]15 Nov 2024 14:26 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3laylhn5kcs2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3laxtwcxa7s26And… breathe…. The US rates market has repriced terminal rates 1% higher in two months (or maybe, cancelled the idea of ‘terminal’). This morning is quieter but mediocre Chinese and Japanese output data have been followed by soggy UK figs. A quiet day would be just fine.15 Nov 2024 07:25 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3laxtwcxa7s26https://bsky.app/profile/kitjuckes.bsky.social/post/3lavcoh76ys24Interest rates tend ti be the most important driver of currency trends but I can’t remember when they were more important than they are now. And as US ling and short-dated Treasury yields grind higher, is the dollar is up against everything except the coffee bean this morning. Relentless!14 Nov 2024 07:11 +0000at://did:plc:fjilh76xd4yseplau3tagsok/app.bsky.feed.post/3lavcoh76ys24