Scientist (PhD), writer, risk literacy and citizen science tool builder. Nerd-of-all-trades (research methodologist). <3 FOIA, babies, clocking bias and error. Seeker of truth, especially wild.https://bsky.app/profile/verawil.dehttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mldtjvysoc2uValidation and transportability are different problems. Some mass screenings may be unvalidatable in principle. h/t @p-hunermund.com for the convo + Mooij/Forré/Magliacane pointers I'm still chasing. wildetruth.substack.com/p/validate-me08 May 2026 13:28 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mldtjvysoc2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mkz7eq3dj22u95%CI [last Tuesday, heat death of the universe] Also, the singularity identifies off the assumption that nothing in the DGP changes when you fully automate the DGP. Bold consistency assumption! [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 May 2026 08:01 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkz7eq3dj22uhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mkmxcm2r4s2cNew methods for estimating effects of mass screenings for low-prevalence problems account for time better than ever. But also raise open questions about mechanisms. Like, is colonoscopist quality a facet of accuracy heterogeneity or strategic behavior? https://wildetruth.substack.com/p/when-better-analysis-changes-everything29 Apr 2026 11:04 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkmxcm2r4s2chttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mjyn56ho222nNice critique of mass screening for low-prevalence problems in one of their most popular incarnations, colon cancer screening: https://www.sensible-med.com/p/the-hubris-of-screening-for-disease21 Apr 2026 09:09 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjyn56ho222nhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mjoneglrwc2mAI-assisted colonoscopy may degrade the very accuracy it's meant to support when experts rely on it, lose skill, and then don't have access. This appears to be both a strategic and information effect: https://wildetruth.substack.com/p/the-deskilling-cycle Also, my kids' art is clearly the best part of this post17 Apr 2026 09:47 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjoneglrwc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mjh2t3sopk2jWhat if we prevented the least competitive 20% of women from even trying to get into grad school? This could ease pressure on the retirement system by making structural conditions more amenable to women meeting their own reproductive goals. Everybody wins! #OpenScience #IntegrityResearch #EmpathyFTW [contains quote post or other embedded content]14 Apr 2026 09:26 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjh2t3sopk2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mjelntwrgs2bRead Wanda Gág's translation of the Grimm Brothers' "Six Servants" to the kids last night, and now I can't stop fantasizing about the Internet quiz version. Which servant are you? 🐷 The Fat One 🦒 The Long One 👁️ The Looker 👂 The Listener 🎯 Shatter Eyes 🥶🔥 Frosty-hot (Woodcuts! 1936.)13 Apr 2026 09:49 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjelntwrgs2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3miyabdyb6c2hIt's hard out here for a rogue methodologist ninja. Wrote a new proof; no constituency. Known CSAM scanning: this could work. Unknown content scanning: this backfires, undermining child safety. EU just sunsetted the former. Trilogues continue on the latter. https://wildetruth.substack.com/p/an-inconvenient-proof08 Apr 2026 11:54 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3miyabdyb6c2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3miqiaqdy2c2sOh YeS oH yEs Roses are red eggs are dyed hide and hide find and seek eek grin eek!!05 Apr 2026 09:55 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3miqiaqdy2c2shttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3minm36clhc2rOh yes oh yes Roses are red violets are blue hyacinths are smelly spring is, too!04 Apr 2026 06:26 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3minm36clhc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3miiulra2rs2jOlder child realized we forgot to open the door last night for Eliyahu and opened it for him this morning before we walked to Kita in bright bunny ears singing Dayenu, and if anyone needs me I will be playing this on repeat until the baby begs me to stop. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZgDNPGZ9Sg02 Apr 2026 09:15 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3miiulra2rs2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mighoqo4pk2bMitchell's great. I reviewed *Free Agents* alongside Sapolsky's *Determined*, and came away thinking both are doing something more like secular theology than science (in an interesting way). If you want a skeptic's take on both: wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-reviews-free-agents-and-determined [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 Apr 2026 10:18 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mighoqo4pk2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3midvy4wyo224Yo dawg heard you like worrying about the implications of Bayes rule in mass screenings for low-prevalence problems. But have you tried worrying about intention-to-treat vs per-protocol estimates? Let's frolic thru the latest in target trial emulation! https://wildetruth.substack.com/p/its-the-analysis-stupid31 Mar 2026 09:56 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3midvy4wyo224https://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mi72o6vipc26Hash-matching for known child sexual abuse material (CSAM), aka Chat Control 1.0: doable ✓ Mass AI scanning for unknown CSAM/ Chat Control 2.0: not ✗ Privacy advocates: 😭 mass AI scanning can work?! Child safety advocates: 😭 mass AI scanning can't work?! Me: yes, these are different problems [contains quote post or other embedded content]29 Mar 2026 11:37 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi72o6vipc26https://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mi6wwvq7ec2zUpdated my working paper "When Mass Security Screening Backfires" with a formal proof (§5.4) showing why hash-matching of known CSAM is resource-tractable, while mass AI scanning for unknown CSAM is mathematically intractable at scale, regardless of how good the classifier gets. tinyurl.com/twf538y329 Mar 2026 10:30 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi6wwvq7ec2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mhxhjngixs2eA support group for AI-induced psychosis finds 3 delusions recur (nicknames my own): 1. The Frankenstein delusion - I've created life (consciousness) 2. The Napoleon Hill delusion - I'm going to get rich 3. The Ezekiel delusion — I've been chosen (Ezekiel 1) https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2026/mar/26/ai-chatbot-users-lives-wrecked-by-delusion26 Mar 2026 11:06 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhxhjngixs2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mhrzykikz22mme at 3 a.m. [contains quote post or other embedded content]24 Mar 2026 07:20 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhrzykikz22mhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mhpuosf4ac22Oh hey Bayesian search is the right tool for the closed universe searches job, no? I mean if you know there's a crime-specific true positive among the false, and have secondary investigative ways of winnowing (tuning parameter optimization) [contains quote post or other embedded content]23 Mar 2026 10:40 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhpuosf4ac22https://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mhi6h36hd224I am told this Berlin Philharmonic version of Mahler's Symphonie No. 5 was performed entirely without sheet music, as is conductor Gustavo Dudamel's wont. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5J5xekhNubE20 Mar 2026 09:13 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhi6h36hd224https://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mhdggvi2nk2uA new crypto paper shows how to evade mass AI scanning for child sexual abuse images (CSAM) during ongoing EU policy debates about different implementations of such scanning. Science should serve the public interest, and this doesn't. https://wildetruth.substack.com/p/when-security-research-undermines18 Mar 2026 11:53 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhdggvi2nk2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mhaz34tdlk2eReadings on the affect effect & description-experience gap; and redesigning my risk literacy app following feedback from brilliant risk literacy folks at Charité. German compound word power shines light in the darkness! wildetruth.substack.com/p/old-rarity https://verawilde.github.io/rarity-roulette/ [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Mar 2026 12:48 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhaz34tdlk2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/verawil.de/post/3mh6dgctad22eOh yes German compound word creator oh yes necessary https://www.yeschat.ai/gpts-9t55R6Rzj0y-Wortmeister I give you: Schimmerhoffnungsverzweiflung (an oddly hopeful despair) or (metaphorically): Schönheitstodschmetterling (beautiful death butterfly)16 Mar 2026 11:16 +0000at://did:plc:frrdn7yn37ltpywtejb3srbl/app.bsky.feed.post/3mh6dgctad22e