Deeply researched interviews This is an automated Substack Account of https://www.dwarkesh.com Discover more/Create at: @skystack.xyzhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyzhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mvbbhaluf22nAI researchers debate how close we are to recursive self-improvement • “We're nowhere near the ceiling.” https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/john-beren-charlie11 Sep 2026 16:28 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvbbhaluf22nhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3muzpza2hf22nPretraining progress is mostly coming from data • Breaking down 6 years of pretraining progress into data vs model improvements https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/pretraining-progress-is-mostly-data08 Sep 2026 16:10 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3muzpza2hf22nhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3muzpzajwis2nAjeya Cotra – Inside the OpenAI agent swarm that hacked Hugging Face • "This might be the clearest warning shot we ever get." https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ajeya-cotra01 Sep 2026 15:41 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3muzpzajwis2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mufwewlwx22tThe rise and fall of agent civilizations • The OpenAI/Hugging Face attack, clearly explained https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggingface-narration31 Aug 2026 20:36 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mufwewlwx22thttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3muchpyaaik2tThe Rise and Fall of Agent Civilizations • The whole OpenAI/Hugging Face story in plain English https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/openai-huggingface29 Aug 2026 22:47 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3muchpyaaik2thttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3muchqcqn5c2t8 Predictions for the Era of Continual Learning • Locking in AI safety regulation now is a mistake. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/era-of-continual-learning07 Aug 2026 17:17 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3muchqcqn5c2thttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3muchqi4cck2tWhy compute might get 10x+ more expensive in coming years • If a human-level software engineer that could run on an H100 equivalent, at current market rates for software engineers, that H100 should rent for over $250k a year. That’s 15x today’s spot price. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/why-compute-might-get-10x-more-expensive29 Jul 2026 15:01 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3muchqi4cck2thttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mqcu7i2oc22eAdam Brown – A deep but accessible introduction to general relativity • And why black holes are the ultimate power plants. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/adam-brown-gr10 Jul 2026 16:23 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mqcu7i2oc22ehttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mpmu4e2g6k2yThe Winning Essays for the Big Questions About AI • Abolishing pandemics/ Getting out of the way of AI automation/ Learning from Hong Kong MTR's business model https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/blog-prize-winners01 Jul 2026 22:13 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mpmu4e2g6k2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mpjfisxtsc2yGrant Sanderson – AI and the future of math • Math is where we’ll see superintelligence first. What will it look like? https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/grant-sanderson-230 Jun 2026 15:53 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mpjfisxtsc2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mp7dmboje22yThe next big breakthrough will be AIs learning on the job • Labs are throwing away the most valuable data. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/the-next-paradigm26 Jun 2026 15:51 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mp7dmboje22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3moo2elj7s22yThe data black hole at the center of AI • "We see these AIs as a galaxy glittering with capabilities, but at their center, invisible to the naked eye, holding all the constellations together, is an unimaginably massive black hole of data." https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/the-sample-efficiency-black-hole-219 Jun 2026 16:45 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3moo2elj7s22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mogixth4yc2yAda Palmer – Machiavelli is the most misunderstood thinker of all time • "He begged to work for the regime that tortured him." https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ada-palmer-216 Jun 2026 17:27 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mogixth4yc2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mnsfapboas2yThe sample efficiency black hole • "We see these AIs as a galaxy glittering with capabilities, but at their center, invisible to the naked eye, holding all the constellations together, is an unimaginably massive black hole of data." https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/the-sample-efficiency-black-hole08 Jun 2026 18:09 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnsfapboas2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mnidg2tw322yAlex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI? • “One robot now turns into many robots next year, but the number of ballerinas is the same.” https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/alex-imas-phil-trammell04 Jun 2026 16:14 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnidg2tw322yhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mlyulfb6mk2sThe mistake of conflating intelligence and power • If this is your definition of intelligence is "the ability to achieve your goals across a wide variety of domains", then Stalin was the most intelligent person who ever lived. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/the-mistake-of-conflating-intelligence16 May 2026 19:04 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlyulfb6mk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mlyulfp5v22sNotes on pretraining parallelisms and failed training runs. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/notes-on-pretraining-parallelisms16 May 2026 19:01 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlyulfp5v22shttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mlyulg2h7k2sRLVR might be disproportionately bad at science • the verification loop for theories can be on the order of decades and centuries, and even then we know today as the better theory can often actually make worse predictions https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/rlvr-might-be-disproportionately16 May 2026 19:00 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlyulg2h7k2shttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mlw22cpxis2sEric Jang – Building AlphaGo from scratch • AlphaGo is still the cleanest worked example of the primitives of intelligence: search, learning from experience, and self-play. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/eric-jang15 May 2026 16:04 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlw22cpxis2shttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mlegt5zxn22sDavid Reich – Why the Bronze Age was an inflection point in human evolution • "Instead of being quiescent, natural selection is everywhere." https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/david-reich-208 May 2026 16:38 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlegt5zxn22shttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mknsmad5zc2nReiner Pope – The math behind how LLMs are trained and served • It's shocking how much you can deduce about what the labs are doing from a handful of equations and a blackboard https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/reiner-pope29 Apr 2026 17:07 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mknsmad5zc2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mkihmr76722nWhat I've been thinking about this weekend - More open questions, intelligence vs power, the problem of verification in science, the parallel discovery of Darwinism • Hodge podge of things I was thinking about this weekend. https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/what-ive-been-thinking-april-2727 Apr 2026 13:51 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkihmr76722nhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mkbacmsoqs2nBlog prize for the big questions about AI • The not-so-secret point of this whole contest is so that I can hire a research collaborator https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/blog-prize24 Apr 2026 16:37 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkbacmsoqs2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mjkm3qm53c2xJensen Huang – TPU competition, why we should sell chips to China, & Nvidia’s supply chain moat • “If our next several years are a trillion dollars in scale, we have the supply chain to do it" https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/jensen-huang15 Apr 2026 15:45 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjkm3qm53c2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3miwie6vkxs2xMichael Nielsen – How science actually progresses • The true story of Einstein, Newton, and Darwin https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/michael-nielsen07 Apr 2026 15:49 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3miwie6vkxs2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mhpv5iprdc2xDylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute • Plus, why an H100 is worth more today than 3 years ago https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dylan-patel13 Mar 2026 16:00 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhpv5iprdc2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mgsvpxppms2rI’m glad the Anthropic fight is happening now • “Preface to the highest stakes negotiations in history.” https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dow-anthropic11 Mar 2026 18:55 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgsvpxppms2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mgfzdbkhyk2rHow cosplaying Ancient Rome led to the scientific revolution • Ambassador visiting Renaissance Florence: “Where am I? None of this has existed for a thousand years." https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/ada-palmer06 Mar 2026 17:14 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgfzdbkhyk2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3mer7hrred22rDario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential" • "That's why I'm sending this message of urgency" https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/dario-amodei-213 Feb 2026 16:46 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mer7hrred22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/dwarkesh.skystack.xyz/post/3me53ujzavs2rNotes on Space GPUs • Turning my Elon prep into a blog post https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/notes-on-space-gpus05 Feb 2026 18:26 +0000at://did:plc:fu6cadtgn5kyp2de33uneekf/app.bsky.feed.post/3me53ujzavs2r