Senior Economist @MinneapolisFed. Co parent of #QLmonhtly https://sites.google.com/qlmonthly.com/home Aroostook born. Loves 🐶,🏃‍♀️, & macroeconomics. Views my own.https://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3ln4d4uclxk2mHot off the #QLmonthly presses: the odds a laid off worker exits the labor force altogether is reaching an all time high! Could unemployment rates be artificially low? Check out March's data and our monthly briefing https://sites.google.com/qlmonthly.com/home/home 1/n18 Apr 2025 19:10 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3ln4d4uclxk2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3llp4my3scc2iAhem: I mean papers **in progress** not (necessarily) papers on Economic development (although those are welcomed too) 🤦 [contains quote post or other embedded content]31 Mar 2025 19:44 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3llp4my3scc2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3llp24alyas26📣 #econsky Each fall, Mpls Fed hosts scholars within 8 years of their PhD for an Early Career Workshop focused on papers **in development** This year's deadline is April 11. Share & help us find the best new 💡 from PhD's 2017-2024! www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co... https://www.minneapolisfed.org/institute/co..31 Mar 2025 18:59 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3llp24alyas26https://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3llhmyyhoqk2oLots of skepticism of the Michigan Survey out there from the econ nerds. I'll add the chart below, comparing to CPS quits that K. Ellieroth and I construct. Thanks to my (fantastic) RA Sara Canilang for showing this to me yesterday.28 Mar 2025 20:16 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3llhmyyhoqk2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lkwdmh4nuc2u#QLmonthly updated with February data. No material weakness in the labor market but quits are flashing a contradictory signal. This month we explore how quits relate to worker expectations and to forecasting. https://sites.google.com/qlmonthly.com/home 1/n21 Mar 2025 23:12 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkwdmh4nuc2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lippq4wiuc2q#QLmonthly update: updated with January data. Data support our view we've expressed over the past few months that the labor market has settled at a normal position after some noted cooling in early-mid 2024. The rise in prime EU and layoffs were not sustained. https://sites.google.com/qlmonthly.com/home/home21 Feb 2025 21:10 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lippq4wiuc2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lgb75c47os2r#QLmonthly has been updated with December's data. (https://sites.google.com/qlmonthly.com/home). Updated charts for prime-age in this thread. First, layoffs to non-employment rose in December but the rolling average remains below the summer 24' spike. 1/321 Jan 2025 15:46 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgb75c47os2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lffjpvcddk2jToday's jobs day numbers look consistent with our read from our #QLmonthly series. [contains quote post or other embedded content]10 Jan 2025 15:40 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lffjpvcddk2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3ldjnn2vygs2r#QLmonthly data updated with November's release (https://sites.google.com/qlmonthly.com/home). We are in blackout so here are the updated charts, without commentary. I will be back with analysis after Friday. First chart: prime age quits and layoffs to nonemployment (1/3)17 Dec 2024 20:11 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3ldjnn2vygs2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lcdxonwle22kWe may have buried the lede in this article. Before #jobsday I want to be clear that our data show a stabilization or even improvement in labor markets after the accelerated cooling this year ->August. My view: the risk that labor markets worsen is now low. https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/where-is-the-us-labor-market-heading-interpreting-the-mixed-signals02 Dec 2024 20:29 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lcdxonwle22khttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbdlnnvkak2vNew today: my Mpls Fed Research Note on how layoffs and labor supply contribute to unemployment. Labor supply rises in recessions, driving 25-30% of the rise in unemployment & giving insight to workers' perceptions. See what this means for the current moment: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/where-is-the-us-labor-market-heading-interpreting-the-mixed-signals19 Nov 2024 23:29 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbdlnnvkak2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3tuvyid2l#Qlmonthly update shows three months of pause in labor market softening. Mixed signals for what lies ahead as layoffs show signs of backing down but some job finding rates slide (although job to job flows appear to rally?) Let's take a look 1/n ()15 Nov 2024 21:46 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3tuvyid2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3tpacv52c#QLmonthly briefing is posted . The word of the month is "resilience". Layoffs to non-employment begin decline after rising for several months. Quits continue recent rebound suggesting worker confidence in the labor market's future 1/n22 Oct 2024 15:45 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3tpacv52chttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3tja5wy2nThe annual conference I organize is this Thursday, October 3rd! I invite you to check out the wonderful program to be kicked off with remarks from Raphael Bostic followed by a conversation with Neel Kashkari. Please join us via live stream ()01 Oct 2024 21:14 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3tja5wy2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3tgcgd62h#QLmonthly briefing is posted . Most people caught the rise in layoffs this month but did you see the rise in quits? Quits typically rise in good times! This is just one month, so watch Sep to see if it is more than a blip. 1/n20 Sep 2024 17:55 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3tgcgd62hhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3tcvmwe2j#QLmonthly data have been updated with August's release (). Commentary coming after blackout will focus on time aggregation bias and comparison to JOLTS. Enjoy silent graph updates in following tweets, starting with quits and layoffs to non-employment (1/3)19 Sep 2024 16:28 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3tcvmwe2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3t4v7ji2j#QLmonthly update brings good news: layoffs seem to have stabilized from June to July after steady rises in the first half of the year. Falling quits have also paused. () 1/n15 Aug 2024 17:37 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3t4v7ji2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3szezkv23📢Announcing *new* monthly series of quits and layoffs reported by households! We see a notable sign of labor market softening: layoffs have risen steadily and significantly since January 2024. Do I have your attention #JOLTS and #jobsday fans? #econtwitter 🧵1/n18 Jul 2024 20:21 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3szezkv23https://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3sqy7u22fIndustrial policy is trending @nberpubs! Cue the time machine to my 2014 JIE on capital controls as industrial policy. Remember: second best policies that tilt the inter- Euler (capital controls, exchange rates, etc) get further from first best when growth externalities get large19 Apr 2024 14:17 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3sqy7u22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3sil3qe2uPumped to be giving a seminar at UBC but how am I going to compete with perfect weather to take in the stunning fall colors? I'll do my best to make the business cycle implications precautionary labor supply as exciting as possible! 🍁30 Oct 2023 16:32 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3sil3qe2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3sf5nyg2h28 Oct 2023 01:30 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3sf5nyg2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3sbs2ge2uEconomics is a SOCIAL science. The time we spend together moves the frontier orders of magnitude more than our time alone. Thankful for a couple of weeks between LSE, Bristol, Oxford, and Vienna Macro. Eager to get home and feed the sparks of inspiration.22 Oct 2023 06:43 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3sbs2ge2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3s6vj6n2rIt was my first time at NBER SI's "labor week". Everyone was kind, polite, and constructive. It was an appreciated opportunity to better our research and meet the authors of many papers we cite.26 Jul 2023 21:30 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3s6vj6n2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3s3uebj25Hey #SED2023 @SEDmeeting : I just put 3 "!!!" in slides for @DavidWiczer 's presentation on Friday @ 9am of our paper on spatial redistribution of SSDI w/ Tim Moore (Map is of DI/working age pop in VA). What am I so excited about? 1/329 Jun 2023 20:31 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3s3uebj25https://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3ryg7zn2c1x120 Jun 2023 18:42 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3ryg7zn2chttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3rvlwca2aI missed the news of Stanley Engerman's passing. His work was inspirational. I was lucky enough to write my ugrad thesis under his supervision, an experience that was literally life changing. I also enjoyed keeping in touch with him through the years. 1/208 Jun 2023 20:44 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3rvlwca2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3rqkhcm2jWaiting out blizzard conditions at home? Check out the new draft of my work with Kathrin Ellieroth: "From Trend to Cycle: the Changing Careers of Married Women and Business Cycle Risk."23 Dec 2022 21:24 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3rqkhcm2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3ri72qn2cEmployment among persons reporting a disability has recovered far beyond pre-pandemic levels (CPS). Could technology be the driver? I'll present evidence in favor today @AtlantaFed and livestreamed. #techdisrupts2203 Oct 2022 12:07 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3ri72qn2chttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3rdxet62hWhat a week! A surprise engagement in the Swiss Alps followed by a warm welcome to the Vienna Macro community. Now I understand the hype around this conference. Positive and challenging. Can't wait to return!13 Sep 2022 12:55 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3rdxet62hhttps://bsky.app/profile/amandamichaud.bsky.social/post/3lbd3qeah2523Joyeux Tintamarre! Today Acadiens make noise to announce that WE ARE STILL HERE. Despite attempted extermination and centuries of discrimination, financial and educational repression; we are no longer ashamed. We are thriving and we are proud. (1/3)15 Aug 2021 15:52 +0000at://did:plc:h6flu3j4cmfgosrrhbevowo7/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbd3qeah2523