Ex Merchant Navy officer and now Merchant Navy teacher and creator of online training courses. Author of the Series "The Hormuz Crisis" - Volume 1 The Illusion of Open Seas e-book on Amazon now. https://www.linkedin.com/in/ash-oro https://ashoro.co.uk/https://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.ukhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtlf5s5pru2o1/ I am still watching the Middle East very closely. But there is another developing story I think needs bringing into the same picture: El Niño. Not because it tells us what the weather will be. Because it changes the assumptions we normally use to plan around it. #SeafarerMeteorology #ElNiño21 Aug 2026 08:54 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtlf5s5pru2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtk3fkn5ou2o1/3 @mrjamesob.bsky.social I have a treat for you. You mentioned the Gauging Lock and then talked about water spill over etc. Well I asked some old friends and they got back to me with these... These are from the gauging book and explain how it actually works.20 Aug 2026 20:26 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtk3fkn5ou2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtj7fotxae2o@mrjamesob.bsky.social I missed that last bit of the show due to children - but I would love a board game. Great show as always.20 Aug 2026 12:05 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtj7fotxae2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtj5gh5olm2oFlash from the UKMTO. A vessel has been boarded and redirected to #Somalia. This is now the third such incident in a week - showing that the #Piracy threat is increasing as the area slips into Houthi attacks and coercion. Also a reminder of what the warships are supposed to protect against...20 Aug 2026 11:30 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtj5gh5olm2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtiz7ciele2o@howlingmines.com ... guess who I was drafting with a min ago?20 Aug 2026 10:14 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtiz7ciele2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtijz6nhvx2o1/15 Yesterday I said #TheHormuzCrisis was spreading beyond the Strait, and that the commercial system would decide what happened next. Waking up this morning, Trump made that shift explicit. The next phase seems to be economic warfare, imposed through trade rather than just naval pressure.20 Aug 2026 05:43 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtijz6nhvx2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtgzjf7abn2o1/12 There are some developments today that warrant some extra explanation as they are significant but a little confusing. It all comes down to the interpretations that Iran set out in the MoU in June, and the way that the Iranian power leaders view #TheHormuzCrisis and the Persian Gulf as a whole19 Aug 2026 15:15 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtgzjf7abn2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtg3qcflss2o1/15 The holding pattern in #TheHormuzCrisis seems to be breaking. To understand why, we need to look beyond the diplomatic statements and examine the commercial behaviour. Ships, insurers and charterers are now telling us what they believe is actually happening in practice in the Strait.19 Aug 2026 06:22 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtg3qcflss2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtexdwcrqc22Just a thought. But isn’t Harp some 6 years older than Leavitt? If so, I think this may be the first time in his life Trump has ever “upgraded” to an “older model”…18 Aug 2026 19:31 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtexdwcrqc22https://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtejfqoxj22oSo the attack has been dealt with by the UAE - this is not a statement of "false alarm" or "inadvertent activation" The official line is the incoming threat has been dealt with. I will keep watching for any more statements explaining what and why.18 Aug 2026 15:21 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtejfqoxj22ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mteiijzd4c2oAll my dashboard alerts just went off at once... Arabian Business are reporting that the UAE's missile defence systems have been activated and the mobile-phone alerts have been issued... This could be another false alarm as per the July Warnings - we will know soon...18 Aug 2026 15:05 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mteiijzd4c2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtef3glx7226This seems like another #Trump rant. But it is dangerous. There is no evidence that the mines have been recovered or removed or that the area is safe to transit. A vessel was hit this morning and a sailor died in the Straits. #TheHormuzCrisis isn’t over because he says it is without evidence.18 Aug 2026 14:04 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtef3glx7226https://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtea33kdv22oI have been monitoring and checking and I am fairly confident now that this is the attack and related confirmation of the death of the seafarer stuck in the Strait of Hormuz while the vessel transited last night and early this morning. Another life taken by this senseless war #TheHormuzCrisis...18 Aug 2026 12:34 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtea33kdv22ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mte5vyiazk2oI am a bit late with this because I have been staring at it in disbelief... I spoke with @mrjamesob.bsky.social today about covering #Trump and #TheHormuzCrisis and how it is difficult to get people interested any more. This is why. It is just nonsense but we have to take it as serious US policy.18 Aug 2026 11:55 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mte5vyiazk2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtdzktp3pc2yMy thanks to @lbc.co.uk and @mrjamesob.bsky.social for taking my call on #Trump and #TheHormuzCrisis. Always good to keep the fires burning in cataloguing the carnage and horror, despite the mental toll.18 Aug 2026 10:38 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtdzktp3pc2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtdqijmqkc2oFlash from UKMTO - A vessel was struck this morning by a projectile while attempting an outbound transit of the Strait of Hormuz using the Oman southern route. Reports state there is a casualty and engine room damage. No word on extent or seriousness - I will keep watching for more...18 Aug 2026 07:55 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtdqijmqkc2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtdlxsvuyc2h1/3 Looking at #TheHormuzCrisis we are still in a holding pattern awaiting developments. The 4 areas to watch are still deadlocked - no real political movement. The only change is some operational restraint from merchant shipping.18 Aug 2026 06:34 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtdlxsvuyc2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtbznxdduc2dI will call this a success. Kids don’t eat like this on Mummy’s day off 🤣🤣17 Aug 2026 15:34 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtbznxdduc2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtbrbldoct2qFlash from the UKMTO - I am still investigating the Houthi claim - but this flashed up on the UKMTO warnings list just a few minutes ago... 8 armed persons have boarded and captured a merchant vessel south of the entrance the Red Sea, off the coast of Somalia.17 Aug 2026 13:04 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtbrbldoct2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtbptn7iat2qI can't find this externally corroborated - but the Houthis are claiming missile strikes on escorts and shipping in the Red Sea... I will keep digging #MerchantShipping #MaritimeSecurity #RedSea17 Aug 2026 12:38 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtbptn7iat2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtbnqbxau32q... I try to analyse #Trump and #TheHormuzCrisis as honestly and impartially as I can. But how do you impartially and honestly analyse someone that threatens to bomb anyone that doesn't fawn over him, or just lies constantly about winning and understands nothing of the actual situation even now...17 Aug 2026 12:01 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtbnqbxau32qhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtbmubbvdk2tStill off work so running “Daddy Daycare” for the neighbourhood kids so the adults can work / run errands. It is such a hardship having to be about and smoking dinner in the background. Wrap time for the beef ribs 😀17 Aug 2026 11:45 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtbmubbvdk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mtaydajyjn2q1/16 The 60-day Islamabad MoU has reached its final day without a replacement agreement, an announced extension or any acknowledged US-Iran talks. That does not automatically mean renewed war. It means the remaining restraint is political, not contractual. #TheHormuzCrisis #USAIranWar17 Aug 2026 05:37 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtaydajyjn2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mt4qdsdvv22dExcellent innings of bowling. One 5 wicket haul for Mr Hobbs. A nice slip catch for me. Now onto the batting.15 Aug 2026 13:04 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt4qdsdvv22dhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mt4f2x3kf22q1/20 I have left it a bit later today as I wanted my #TheHormuzCrisis thread to be as current as possible. The Islamabad MoU is entering its final 24–48 hours without a final agreement, an authenticated extension or a published replacement. The diplomatic bridge is running out.15 Aug 2026 09:42 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt4f2x3kf22qhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mt2qm656gc23That COBRA meeting was a complete success then?14 Aug 2026 18:03 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt2qm656gc23https://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mt2ho57pm22lChicken is glazed. Corn on the cob is smoked and now steaming in butter and water mix. I added in a Camembert and chopped up carrots and cucumber for dunking as the veggies were saying they didn’t have enough food… Will have to see how it tastes. #BBQ #Smoker14 Aug 2026 15:23 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt2ho57pm22lhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mt25o6prwc2qIt is Friday. We all need a lift after another looong week. I asked the Wee-Man what we should cook for dinner. He said “Cowboy Lollipops”. Well. Who am I to say no to that. 🤣. Cowboy Lollipops ready for smoking on the pellet grill and potato salad chilling. Corn on the cob for the veggies.14 Aug 2026 12:24 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt25o6prwc2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mszu5vh25s2qThis in from the UKMTO - A UAV drone has struck a tanker in the Strait - all crew reported safe but there is damage to the vessel. More evidence of the dangers to the seafarers of attempting a passage of the Strait - despite #Trump claiming the USA has control. #TheHormuzCrisis14 Aug 2026 09:34 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mszu5vh25s2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/ashoro.co.uk/post/3mszfjeuhsk2qWas that really worth the £250,000 price tag? All that money to find out Clacton is still full of people that want a foreign-backed millionaire to represent them in Washington DC and get recalled in a few months when he is found guilty by Parliament. Still - Binface got his deposit back14 Aug 2026 05:12 +0000at://did:plc:jamymhnjtcpp2urhmd6rzu6a/app.bsky.feed.post/3mszfjeuhsk2q