Vice President of Research for Security & Defense at Chicago Council on Global Affairs • Contributing Editor at Lawfare • Ex Pentagon & State Department • Author of No Conquest, No Defeat (Oxford University Press) & co-author of Triple Axis (Bloomsbury)https://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3mjkubo2fo22t@elisaewers44.bsky.social & I have a new essay on how the Iran war tested U.S. policy assumptions: While some held up, others broke down. U.S. planning did not fail. The administration ignored it. As policymakers look to the day after, those assumptions need a hard reset. [contains quote post or other embedded content]15 Apr 2026 21:40 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjkubo2fo22thttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3mibtftxhnk2jTomorrow will be my last day as a Public Service Fellow at @lawfaremedia.org. Over the past six months I covered everything from Venezuela and the Iran war to tensions inside NATO (remember Greenland?) and Indo-Pacific issues.30 Mar 2026 14:05 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3mibtftxhnk2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3mhl5oggboc2dGlad to be back on NPR’s Weekend Edition this morning to talk about the status of Iran’s nuclear program. https://one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5753752:nx-s1-969762221 Mar 2026 13:37 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhl5oggboc2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3mh4rylcghs2mIf you want deeper context for the headlines about Iran right now, my second book, No Conquest, No Defeat, examines the foundations of Iran’s security thinking & traces the historical roots of its nuclear & missile programs, proxy networks, and hybrid warfare strategy. academic.oup.com/book/3351415 Mar 2026 20:31 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3mh4rylcghs2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3mgy5drzywk2mBack in 2020, my colleague Elisa Catalano Ewers & I wrote this piece for @warontherocks.bsky.social, where we laid out how Iran was positioning itself then to withstand a closing of the Strait of Hormuz, a tool it’d be prepared to use. https://warontherocks.com/2020/07/how-irans-oil-infrastructure-gambit-could-imperil-the-strait-of-hormuz/14 Mar 2026 00:11 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3mgy5drzywk2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3mfwrt7heq22sThis is likely the first phase of counterattacks. The first two target-sets (US bases & energy) are part of the usual Iranian playbook, the third less so. As I said on NPR this morning, we should expect a second phase once this one is over, which will play out in the gray zone internationally. [contains quote post or other embedded content]28 Feb 2026 17:47 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfwrt7heq22shttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3mfweckxbak2aThanks to @npr.org for having me on Weekend Edition this morning to talk about the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran, what we can expect from the Iranian regime, and what’s next. https://one.npr.org/i/nx-s1-5726360:nx-s1-966784128 Feb 2026 13:45 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfweckxbak2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3me75xtobvc2aAs Trump resumes negotiations with Iran on its nuclear program, we’re learning more about the horrifying scale of the regime's atrocities. We talk about all of that here. PS: Negotiating now w/ the regime is a mistake & emboldens it as it just killed more people than the CCP during Tiananmen. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Feb 2026 14:55 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3me75xtobvc2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/atabatabai.bsky.social/post/3me5f7augms2zFor this second installment in our @lawfaremedia.org series on Trump's coercive approach to NATO, @j-dren.bsky.social & I look at how Russia views the tensions within the alliance. The acute phase of the Greenland crisis may be over (for now), but Russia will keep benefiting from it. [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 Feb 2026 21:59 +0000at://did:plc:jeps72ck2apq75dkmxrf5z2d/app.bsky.feed.post/3me5f7augms2z