Founder MPP (yeah you know me), UT Austin Prof, former chief economist various financial firms, Fed economist, Prez NABE. Passionate about family, macro, cats and freedomhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mtx6xsfxks27Dolly shows that ambition, intelligence and love of craft are not in conflict with humanity, generosity and love of community, let alone joy and fun…if only the modern cohort of business leaders felt the same…💔26 Aug 2026 01:35 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtx6xsfxks27https://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mtwgnapbuk2cRest in peace and power Dolly, and say hi to Ann for me ❤️💔🔥🙏🏼25 Aug 2026 18:19 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtwgnapbuk2chttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mtmi5srgs22yFriday thought on monetary policy: there is a danger of framing everything in terms of supply shocks since that makes them seem transitory, but we are in a regime where chaos is structural, endogenous, and not random. Do you want to bet supply shocks are behind us?21 Aug 2026 19:20 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtmi5srgs22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mtlsmiuhuk2oA fun discussion of challenges to and importance of Fed credibility and what current bond market moves are telling us with current Anderson Institute CEO and former Fed collaegue Fabio Natalucci and Craig Torres, one of my fav journalists of all time https://anderseninstitute.org/the-feds-credibility-test-with-julia-coronado/21 Aug 2026 12:55 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtlsmiuhuk2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mtjaqjusuk2yRuh Roh Scotty...20 Aug 2026 12:29 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtjaqjusuk2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mth37lpou22yThe world has changed--inflation is stuck higher post pandemic, rates are higher, deficits cost more and are larger. Now add in a capex boom in need of large scale debt finance & the tectonic plates of global capital markets are shifting19 Aug 2026 15:45 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mth37lpou22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mthrqp6ic22tWhelp! This should reassure bond investors that the global reserve currency is in good hands…😵‍💫 [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 Aug 2026 22:28 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mthrqp6ic22thttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mth37lpou22yThe world has changed--inflation is stuck higher post pandemic, rates are higher, deficits cost more and are larger. Now add in a capex boom in need of large scale debt finance & the tectonic plates of global capital markets are shifting19 Aug 2026 15:45 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mth37lpou22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mtgrunfip22yThe Japanification of the US bond market: Tresury doubles the size of buybacks in long end to pressure rates lower. Will it be enough?19 Aug 2026 12:58 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtgrunfip22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mteb6qulsc2zThe computers & chips that power every sector of our economy are getting EXPENSIVE18 Aug 2026 12:54 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mteb6qulsc2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mteaseh3bk2zThere is just no momentum in housing demand/activity. Starts fell and permits rose in July but the trajectory is flat as a pancake. Not inconsistent with $HD's "beat" as their nominal sales of 1.7% is pretty consistent with flat real activity--not terrible, steady18 Aug 2026 12:47 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mteaseh3bk2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3mtce6df5g22zTaking action, making calls, shaming business leaders who remain silent works! CBP not to be trusted of course but this is a moment worth celebrating [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Aug 2026 18:42 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtce6df5g22zhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msy3ivqj3s2zSeasonal adjustment has been challenging post pandemic resulting in almost predictable ebbs and flows in inflation dynamics. We are seeing the usual downswing in Q3 core inflation, is it big enough to signal a downhift in trend or are we still in the range of the past two years? Not clear yet13 Aug 2026 16:40 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msy3ivqj3s2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msva3vyiks2zRelatively benign and in line reading on July core inflation likely leaves the Fed hike/pause decision a close call. It does not imply much progress on the annual rate of core PCE inflation for those focused on the 5 year miss on the 2% target even as the monthly momentum shows some improvement12 Aug 2026 13:25 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msva3vyiks2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msss7w7rjc2gExisting home sales declined in June and July and have basically been flat at the lows for years reflecting high rates, mortgage lock, weak demographics, still high prices. Housing churn is stuck at housing crash levels. The clearest sector suffering from AI dutch disease11 Aug 2026 14:11 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msss7w7rjc2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msmb5fatl22zLack of US labor supply from aging + ever more restrictive immigration policy (Haitians will be leaving LF next) means job gains posted this spring were simply implausibe and indeed we got a big dose of mean reversion in July... 1/508 Aug 2026 23:49 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msmb5fatl22zhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msmdy55s7c2l#Internationalcatday you say? But what if I am a lion? #Caturday09 Aug 2026 00:40 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msmdy55s7c2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msmb5fatl22zLack of US labor supply from aging + ever more restrictive immigration policy (Haitians will be leaving LF next) means job gains posted this spring were simply implausibe and indeed we got a big dose of mean reversion in July... 1/508 Aug 2026 23:49 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msmb5fatl22zhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msjwnvjhmk2f@jakesherman.bsky.social was one of the first reporters to flag that the capitol was under siege on Jan 6, he tweeted videos showing the violent break in and sounded genuinely terrified. Watching the @punchbowlnews.bsky.social interview with Trump is wild, humans are complex AF08 Aug 2026 01:36 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msjwnvjhmk2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msj2o4jvdc2k*TRUMP MOVING FORWARD WITH ATTEMPT TO FIRE LISA COOK 😠07 Aug 2026 17:15 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msj2o4jvdc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msis7piglc2kSupply shocks are buffeting the eoncomy, including the labor market but the bottom line for moentary policy makers is that the US economy has low unemployment, high inflation, and easy financial conditions. The recipe is simple and the ingredients for a rate hike are still there07 Aug 2026 14:44 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msis7piglc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/jc-econ.bsky.social/post/3msinsqgifs2kThe US labor force is shrinking driving the unemployment rate lower yet wage growth is cooling suggesting weak labor demand. Falling participation reflects an aging workforce, but it can also reflect weak conditions--consumers report worsening opportunities and more younguns are staying in school07 Aug 2026 13:25 +0000at://did:plc:jfepbo63fkxapsd65beyymof/app.bsky.feed.post/3msinsqgifs2k