I discovered the surprising story of what really happened in 2008 (not enough housing) and accidentally became a housing policy guy. https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/ https://www.amazon.com/stores/Kevin-Erdmann/author/B099P7SN1Ghttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mlbsezyt3c2mWhat makes this issue tricky is that skeptics of the housing crisis thinks this means the issue revolves around homeownership, and if they identify caveats about why ownership is lower, that means the crisis isn’t really so bad. But the main problem is making ownership harder caused rents to rise. [contains quote post or other embedded content]07 May 2026 18:02 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlbsezyt3c2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml7gxsfv322xThe video in opposition complains that the project shouldn’t happen because the market rate homes would be expensive. There you go folks. You just saw one in the wild. Not Just a vertical supply curve, but a downward sloping supply curve. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 May 2026 19:33 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml7gxsfv322xhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml7g2lyna22ihttps://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/05/ice-has-not-improved-u-s-labor-markets.html06 May 2026 19:16 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml7g2lyna22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml5ccygxv22bIf you want to torture me, lock me in a room where the "builders learned their lesson in 2008 and now they restrict supply like a cartel" people are debating the "this is setting up to be another 2008" people. Shudder.05 May 2026 23:04 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml5ccygxv22bhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml52uupgj22bI will be ready soon to discuss new research about whether investors are pricing families out of housing. The case is so obvious, it's, frankly, embarrassing to have to write about it like it's something that needs to be pointed out and explained.05 May 2026 20:51 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml52uupgj22bhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml4rgnce2c26Here's a post with a link to my recent interview with Peter Yoder and some color on household size and home size. Podcast Interview with Peter Yoder https://open.substack.com/pub/kevinerdmann/p/podcast-interview-with-peter-yoder?r=2pxsw&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web05 May 2026 18:02 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4rgnce2c26https://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml3kdkd4mk2nOn Twitter I'm getting yelled at because they didn't get the joke. (Except for 1 or 2 replies that didn't get the joke but agree with it.) Now, I'm wondering, is nobody on BlueSky yelling at me because they got the joke or because they agree with it?! [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 06:22 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml3kdkd4mk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml2rkk623s24It's a travesty that "May the 4th be with you" has stolen Cinco de Cuatro from us. This is cultural erasure.04 May 2026 22:59 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml2rkk623s24https://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml2dsv7lnk2kNobody should be allowed to farm more than 350 acres. If we set that limit, the price of farm land will decline, and more families will be able to grow their own food. This is such an obvious solution, I can't believe we don't already do this.04 May 2026 18:53 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml2dsv7lnk2khttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3ml2dikpmyc2mCDOs reflected a shortage of safe assets. Savers afraid of default risk were desperate for any security that could claim not to have it. Then the mortgage crackdown removed $1 trillion in new safe assets per year. Not good. Mortgages and the Supply of Safe Assets https://open.substack.com/pub/kevinerdmann/p/the-supply-of-safe-assets?r=2pxsw&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web04 May 2026 18:47 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml2dikpmyc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkywheheck2rI'm editing a post about capital markets before 2008. It reminds me of the pliability of collective story telling. There was a surge of demand for AAA-rated bonds, & almost everyone alive today thinks that is the fundamental building block for a story about risk-seeking. We can believe anything.04 May 2026 05:21 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkywheheck2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mky2uyjim22tThis is about Barney Frank saying the left should focus more on income inequality than on social issues, and ironically, the largest source of income inequality was cutting mortgage access to 15 million families, which was the most universally popular policy of our lifetime.03 May 2026 21:08 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mky2uyjim22thttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkxyt5avtc2nOne of the more interesting facets of human knowledge building that I have come to appreciate over time, both looking at stock picking and at the macro-level housing issue I have become focused on, is that Bayesian updating, necessarily, does not exist on a continuum. 1/03 May 2026 20:31 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkxyt5avtc2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkwav2bzxs2zPeople who want real estate investors gone, or immigrants gone, or billionaires gone, are all basically making the same moral and intellectual error. I wish there was a way for them to see that, because if they did, I think the embarrassment at their bedfellows might cure them all by itself.03 May 2026 03:50 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkwav2bzxs2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkttpeivxs2e😂😂 [contains quote post or other embedded content]02 May 2026 04:49 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkttpeivxs2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkt75uupws2wI saw this being trained near my home today. This is what I’m saying. This is the obvious end game when the roads are full of self-driving vehicles. There will be no reason to deliver humans in 2 ton metal boxes and deliver everything else in these. [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 May 2026 22:41 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkt75uupws2whttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkqw4i3ayk2fIt seems very likely to me that the end game for self-driving vehicles looks much more like mass transit than it looks like today's car-centered context. The status reasons for having fast, loud, large vehicles go away. The software becomes a commodity. 1/01 May 2026 00:54 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkqw4i3ayk2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkqbwnbv3s2fHere is a histogram of Zillow's ZORI (typical rent) by ZIP code in Phoenix and New York City. And the Zillow ZORI for the metro area is highlighted for each. Any ideas on why their reported NYC metro area number is so much higher than the median NYC ZIP code?30 Apr 2026 18:53 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkqbwnbv3s2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkotzvvss22fThis is pretty impressive. The "Upside-Down CAPM" model is something I have only sparingly written about, and Google AI very accurately describes it. https://www.google.com/search?q=%22upside-down+CAPM%22+Kevin+Erdmann&sca_esv=d758520d8deb50f9&sxsrf=ANbL-n620kPcLZSN7gTDv_EHIsW7cl-oFg%3A1777525682030&udm=50&source=hp&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKpaEWjvZ2Py1XXV8d8KvlI3ppPEReeCOS7s1VbbZz2TLt2sOibMbYx2XAHg-v8xM5VswWDsYo9WtqkvCRRg9-K9RfQixZA0u1sQgKuyFF8B9_UIPIHKY39VWMu_QeMr0m3qaKgjjoFl3peg47GOy4zbx-v2FHT9zDjA7nM70gufvm8uXLYiC1v7y33oHAcBzzttHPepA&aep=1&ntc=1&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi85-yW55SUAxUlIEQIHaHyIA0Q2J8OegQIDxAI&biw=1920&bih=911&dpr=1&mstk=AUtExfDvX-j3GhE6lhkocEdchBSBnVOhj7nM6o5vNGg1g8KuxadSe8d3GtTDeikWzCC7bSc8WxeXlLtQYuwkzjCwtu4SpfrykBfrFo1LT7cU_nfBbCkcLwtuRSSAia2T5iBXjDHP-aSKnb44-gEqviAWj2IHqocFHNNtnHai9UA0o47l177-y4-VJ00MIUMTvss6MuxM_h0lv8QEJ-L9eZ7tFDVPuI-8t38H5OSF_7DjsnrINGDphChZTZDNOg&csuir=130 Apr 2026 05:11 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkotzvvss22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkoesxq7dc2fThe original version was a calf. [contains quote post or other embedded content]30 Apr 2026 00:39 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkoesxq7dc2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevinerdmann.bsky.social/post/3mkm2y66qjk2dIsn’t that the mug shot? [contains quote post or other embedded content]29 Apr 2026 02:37 +0000at://did:plc:kd5d5w626qjhmqcari7bcj3b/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkm2y66qjk2d