@justsand.bsky.social - Justin Sandefur

04 Jan 2026 14:18 +0000

For folks at the AEA meetings... Come hear us debate what we do and don't know about the impact of foreign aid.

28 Dec 2025 12:21 +0000

Two views of US strikes in Nigeria... FT reporting: They killed nobody. In the wrong state. WaPo editorial: Kudos to Trump for engaging, More, please!

12 Dec 2025 15:09 +0000

New from Dev Patel, @arvind2011.bsky.social & me: "We were wrong about convergence." A few years back, we wrote a paper pointing out that Solow convergence had finally arrived. The developing world was catching up. Alas, it seems all good things come to an end. 1/

09 Dec 2025 13:52 +0000

TOP: Household surveys ask women age 15-49 a lot more questions. BOTTOM: So enumerators appear to drop them, non-randomly. Adjusting for this "[calls] into question whether Africa’s fertility transition is as uniquely slow as previously thought." https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/2024-09/FigueiredoWalterMoneke_EndogenousSampleSelection_web.pdf

05 Dec 2025 07:15 +0000

Striking how uniquely exposed to Trump's tariffs India is: - 33% effective tariff rate (among the highest now) - 19% of exports went to US last year (not Mexico, but high-ish)

02 Dec 2025 13:29 +0000

Hello! I'm starting a new blog/newsletter thing. First post is about aid and growth, and what I think is missing from the renewed enthusiasm in DC to subsidize private investment in developing countries: i.e., export discipline. 1/

26 Nov 2025 05:28 +0000

It feels weird to me for the World Bank to focus on psychological training to make Togolese people better entrepreneurs but... it does seem to work. New in the AER:

26 Nov 2025 03:45 +0000

I'm constantly confused by people who see a higher poverty line as a progressive goal, as opposed to shifting focus away from the 40% of the world living on <1/10th of that amount. $100k (PPP) for a family of 4 = 99.99th percentile in India = 99th percentile in China = 93rd percentile in the world

23 Nov 2025 14:00 +0000

Why aren't there more big, labor-intensive firms in poor countries? Answer here: bigger firms use more white-color workers who are in shorter supply in poorer countries.

22 Oct 2025 15:08 +0000

Book launch day -- congrats to @arvind2011.bsky.social & Devesh Kapur! The book is full of data and historical vignettes, but more importantly, really challenges a lot of received wisdom about India's development trajectory. Must read.

23 Sep 2025 11:24 +0000

America's offer to Africa: Trade not aid! But also, no more trade preferences.

08 Sep 2025 10:43 +0000

Tourists sun by the pool overlooking the high court next door, where Tanzania’s opposition leader — previously shot 16 times — is being tried for treason. A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.

14 Aug 2025 15:01 +0000

My experience is if you send Mauricio a half-baked idea, he might just code it up for you and send back a TeX file. Dunno if it’ll work with him as an editor, but worth trying at least… [contains quote post or other embedded content]

01 Aug 2025 14:23 +0000

Lesotho was one of the biggest successes of AGOA -- which meant 'liberation day' hit particularly hard. Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great. NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.