Recent British history is my thing (political, governmental, economic); armchair strategic studies my secret vice. Emeritus Prof at Bristol. Sometime historian of the UK civil service, more recently of Thatcherism. But often on my allotment these dayshttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mjoywlh5r22bThe problems raised by dynamic pricing for those measuring inflation are explored in this Bank Underground piece. But it raises an interesting question: what will inflation even mean in a new world of dynamic and personalised pricing which seems to be on the way https://bankunderground.co.uk/2026/04/16/what-machines-taking-over-pricing-means-for-central-banks/17 Apr 2026 13:14 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjoywlh5r22bhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mjordwx45k2lThis Harper's article is good on what is probably America's greatest problem today - it's transformation into a gerontocracy which represents an aging constituency that controls the political system, to the detriment of younger generations https://harpers.org/archive/2026/05/the-old-guard-samuel-moyn-gerontocracy/17 Apr 2026 10:58 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjordwx45k2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mjgsr3wbg22dWe all want a better country, but first we have to ensure we actually have a country. Enough with the endless faffing around https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cje4n5ppgw7o14 Apr 2026 07:02 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjgsr3wbg22dhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mjelviitz22cHow should the UK government manage the economic fallout from the Iran war? Useful suggestions here from the IfG https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publication/managing-economic-consequences-iran-war?utm_source=ZohoCampaigns&utm_campaign=2026-04-13-monday-newsletter&utm_medium=email13 Apr 2026 09:54 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjelviitz22chttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mjd2rswulk2uAn excellent and devastating analysis from Lawrence Freedman, concluding: "The US will never be irrelevant but while it wields its power so incompetently and counter-productively then its international influence will be correspondingly diminished." https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/the-causes-and-consequences-of-trumps?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=p13md12 Apr 2026 19:15 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjd2rswulk2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mjcfsyrmzk2kFor anyone without a vested interest in sustaining the Trump administration, it is all too obvious that the USA made a catastrophic mistake in Iran Donald Trump is the war’s biggest loser https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/04/09/donald-trump-is-the-wars-biggest-loser From The Economist12 Apr 2026 13:00 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjcfsyrmzk2khttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mi2py6i47c23Interesting historical evidence from Romania that banning abortion doesn't actually stop abortions, but it does rather successfully kill women suffering complications from illegal abortions https://ourworldindata.org/cdn-cgi/imagedelivery/qLq-8BTgXU8yG0N6HnOy8g/8795417f-c5e9-44bb-e7d4-38e44abdb300/w=255027 Mar 2026 18:15 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi2py6i47c23https://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mi2ina63bk2lTrump's media backers urge him on. Better a long war than a short war apparently 🤦 https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-regime-negotiations-steve-witkoff-donald-trump-3fb38794?st=5pjDVm27 Mar 2026 16:04 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi2ina63bk2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mi2hkaxtmc2fReading Foreign Affairs atm is to dive into a sea of bafflement that the USA can have so spectacularly blundered in the Middle East27 Mar 2026 15:44 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi2hkaxtmc2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mi2e5tswjk2rOn the precipitate Orbanification of the USA27 Mar 2026 14:43 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi2e5tswjk2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mi2ahefmek25👇 [contains quote post or other embedded content]27 Mar 2026 13:37 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi2ahefmek25https://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mi2afwldhs25The #1 lesson of the CSPS fiasco is the one lesson the government almost inevitably won't learn - put an end to endless contracted-out failures by bringing public services back in house and re-learning the art of managing and delivering them effectively https://www.civilserviceworld.com/professions/article/capita-pledges-pensionscheme-lessons-for-huge-dwp-contract?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Fri%2027%20Mar%20PT%20newsletter%20in-read%20CFCS%205%20Capita%208%20PMI%20CSW335%20%20OK&utm_content=Fri%2027%20Mar%20PT%20newsletter%20in-read%20CFCS%205%20Capita%208%20PMI%20CSW335%20%20OK+CID_2b76ff3a9dc6e8eaeb881264ee712cc5&utm_source=Email%20newsletters&utm_term=Capita%20pledges%20pension-scheme%20lessons%20for%20huge%20DWP%20contract27 Mar 2026 13:36 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi2afwldhs25https://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhxx7pczms2dThe WSJ has finally reported on widespread concerns that Trump's circle is making money by front-running his market-moving pronouncements https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-well-timed-trades-made-moments-before-trumps-policy-surprises-36e6963a?wsj_native_webview=android&ace_config=%7B%22wsj%22%3A%7B%22djcmp%22%3A%7B%22propertyHref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwsj.android.app%22%7D%7D%7D&ace_environment=androidtablet%2Cwebview&article_is_saved=n26 Mar 2026 15:46 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhxx7pczms2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhxwwookak2dYou can just hear him moaning "Don't bring me problems, bring me solutions" https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-tells-aides-he-wants-speedy-end-to-iran-war-eb9f2b4b?st=tHUq9w26 Mar 2026 15:41 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhxwwookak2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhxteepapk2dThis is a very good discussion of how the USA has driven itself into an escalation trap from which the most plausible exit is to a much poorer and less safe world, one in which the USA has significantly degraded strategic power not just in the ME but across the board https://acoup.blog/2026/03/25/miscellanea-the-war-in-iran/26 Mar 2026 14:37 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhxteepapk2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhvqppiouk2yThis is a very useful worked example of the UK's Byzantine and out-of-control planning system. We need to sweep the whole thing away and start again https://www.samdumitriu.com/p/anatomy-of-a-planning-refusal?hide_intro_popup=true25 Mar 2026 18:45 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhvqppiouk2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhuxh4c2xc25I see the Wall Street Journal is studiously ignoring this FT story about Trump insiders front-running his market shifting posts, and making huge profits https://www.ft.com/content/1171d623-3709-4f6e-8ded-a5df4ec57696?shareType=nongift via @FT25 Mar 2026 11:13 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhuxh4c2xc25https://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhl3haeswc2yTranslation: we have made a colossal blunder, need the victims to help, but can't bring ourselves to admit it https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-gulf-states-oman-united-arab-emirates-donald-trump-077149d2?st=N7aLVB21 Mar 2026 12:58 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhl3haeswc2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhgt32xszs2nWho has the cards now, Donald? https://www.wsj.com/opinion/america-bombs-iran-and-zelensky-suddenly-holds-aces-2eac01ce?st=QpfZhh19 Mar 2026 20:17 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhgt32xszs2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhejjqrbd22nTrump on 13 March: "We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s military capability." Today, after 5 more days of relentless bombardment: 'Extensive damage' at Qatar industrial site as Iran retaliates for strike on gas field - BBC News ww.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c24d410m3g4t?app-referrer=deep-link https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c24d410m3g4t?app-referrer=deep-link18 Mar 2026 22:21 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhejjqrbd22nhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mheczjkej22f"The world has become a very dangerous place because its most powerful country is under the control of a ten-year-old boy". From Francis Fukuyama https://open.substack.com/pub/persuasion1/p/how-not-to-do-regime-change?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=p13md18 Mar 2026 20:24 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mheczjkej22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhecgrerfs2fGovernment bonds - historically a safe bet … until they suddenly aren't https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/safe-until-crisis-what-300-years-wars-reveal-about-government-debt-safety18 Mar 2026 20:14 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhecgrerfs2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhebx6j2k22fGiven Trump's relentless anti-NATO rhetoric, it's a delicious irony that the stark shortage of American mine counter-measure vessels is "in large part, because it has been able to rely on NATO allies to carry much of the MCM burden" https://www.fpri.org/article/2026/03/the-mine-gap-america-forgot-how-to-sweep-the-sea/18 Mar 2026 20:05 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhebx6j2k22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/hugh-pemberton.bsky.social/post/3mhazaq22dc2uOne of the weird things about Labour is that for a while now it has been squandering its once overwhelming support amongst younger voters in favour of pandering to pensioners who, ironically, disproportionately vote Rightwards https://www.ft.com/content/53f66cdd-0ca1-45db-bdc0-a74e6b52c651?shareType=nongift via @FT17 Mar 2026 12:52 +0000at://did:plc:kyf277ftcen2vsai6q4e6lky/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhazaq22dc2u