Strategist, Leader & Author | Retd Army Major General | Senior Fellow in Military Studies @LowyInstitute | @CSIS | Modern & Future war studies | Futura Doctrina substack | #BannedInRussiahttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mk2xgexmhs22“China’s force design portends ambitions far beyond the first or second island chain. It reflects its ambitions toward a global military that will project power beyond its near geography to set the rules for every relationship across the globe.” https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/paparo_opening_statement.pdf22 Apr 2026 07:19 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk2xgexmhs22https://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjytgfdal22v“The central question is whether Russia’s prospects for the military success Putin needs to justify this war have dimmed. The evidence suggests they have. The strategic costs for Russia is heading in a direction that Putin may not be able to reverse.” https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-scales-begin-to-tip-assessing21 Apr 2026 11:02 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjytgfdal22vhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjxo7ipqqs2u“Ukraine is acting & performing like it has the strategic momentum in this war; there is a fair argument that maybe now it does.” My latest. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/turning-the-corner-momentum-builds20 Apr 2026 23:56 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjxo7ipqqs2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjxneruse22hAn interesting assessment of insights for #Taiwan from the war in Iran, from @SethGJones and @dbyman https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/17/opinion/iran-america-taiwan-china.html?unlocked_article_code=1.cVA.TsCa.BCW7K_6jVlHY&smid=url-share20 Apr 2026 23:41 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjxneruse22hhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjtkxkeuec2pUkraine’s strike campaign is hitting targets 1,000km away, costing Russia 40% of its recent oil windfall. Meanwhile, the Iran war is reshaping the Indo-Pacific. My weekly update on war and strategic competition covers it all. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/turning-the-corner-momentum-builds19 Apr 2026 08:47 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjtkxkeuec2phttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjqmmtuzxk2bThis week, Australia’s Defence Minister released the 2026 Australian National Defence Strategy. Overall, the focus & trajectory of Australia’s defence strategy remains consistent with the 2024 version. But there are some missed opportunities worth highlighting. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/more-ambition-same-architecture-australias18 Apr 2026 04:39 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjqmmtuzxk2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjpu2amkxk2tNew era alliance management…17 Apr 2026 21:19 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjpu2amkxk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjlmujfd6c2jDefence Minister Richard Marles has released the 2026 version of Australia’s National Defence Strategy (NDS). My quick assessment of the new strategy is now available at the @lowyinstitute.bsky.social . https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/2026-national-defence-strategy-delivers-more-same16 Apr 2026 05:00 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjlmujfd6c2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjl2ylypak2zAs we anticipate today’s NDS release, this is a terrific deep dive with Q & Steve to discuss crewed, uncrewed & massed autonomous systems in 21st century balanced force design. https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabilities/18007-spotlight-crewed-uncrewed-mass-and-increasing-contemporary-maritime-combat-capabilities-with-kevin-q-quarderer-of-leidos-australia-and-majgen-ret-d-mick-ryan15 Apr 2026 23:40 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjl2ylypak2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjiivms7jc2w"The U.S. is not a victor imposing terms & garnering spoils. Until the White House realizes that a ledger of destroyed targets is not a substitute for a better & enduring political reality, we arent just walking the path to defeat, we are blindly sprinting down it." https://warontherocks.com/tactical-success-strategic-failure-washington-walks-the-path-to-defeat-in-iran/14 Apr 2026 23:11 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjiivms7jc2whttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjfrxqmfis26“If the blockade drags on, Mr. Trump runs the risk of looking once again as though he failed to see around corners, anticipating what could go wrong with an attack on what appeared to be a weakened Iran.” https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/13/us/politics/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-economy.html?unlocked_article_code=1.alA.ZjgC.B0TpoGCDLlZ1&smid=url-share13 Apr 2026 21:15 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjfrxqmfis26https://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjdacy5i622e“The lessons of this war are not hard to find. They are exactly the same as those that should have been learnt from other wars that went badly wrong. The design was complacent, with the typical error of seriously underestimating the opponent.” https://samf.substack.com/p/the-causes-and-consequences-of-trumps?triedRedirect=true12 Apr 2026 20:54 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjdacy5i622ehttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjd7uxlwos22“In March 2026, Iran’s drone campaign consumed thousands of expendable unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The critical technologies, manufacturing equipment, and components underpinning these platforms trace to the civilian manufacturing ecosystem of China.” https://jamestown.org/prc-supply-chain-ecosystem-behind-irans-drone-campaign/?utm_source=All+Subscribers&utm_campaign=e3c33c0206-JSD_03232024_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_d0ce921446-e3c33c0206-155248581&mc_cid=e3c33c0206&mc_eid=709a7ab2f512 Apr 2026 20:46 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjd7uxlwos22https://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mjbhir3cas2fUkraine's frontline operations and long range strikes are hurting Russia more. China is helping Iran and has 'opened the classroom' to learn from the Iran War. This and more in my latest weekly update. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-learning-curve-ukraines-attrition12 Apr 2026 03:57 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjbhir3cas2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mj6qw2mvmk2fA wide ranging interview with John Bigelow on the ASIAL Security Insider podcast about the war in Iran, the shape of future war and what this means for the national security of Western democracies. https://www.asial.com.au/Web/News/All-Podcasts/Episode_155_-_US_-_Iran_Escalation_What_Australian_Security_Leaders_Need_to_Know_9_April_2026.aspx11 Apr 2026 02:08 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj6qw2mvmk2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mj37toqsj22l“What the PLA’s most attentive analysts are likely doing is war-gaming a Taiwan scenario in real-time using the Hormuz crisis as a live stress test for assumptions they have been modeling for decades. Some of what they are finding is deeply uncomfortable.” https://cimsec.org/desert-storm-made-the-pla-what-is-the-iran-war-making/09 Apr 2026 16:24 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj37toqsj22lhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3miwu3l4iqc2j"I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!" - Good news.07 Apr 2026 22:43 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3miwu3l4iqc2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3miwqpm5j222dAs we await the expiration of President Trump's deadline for a deal with Iran, I explore the implications of his #Iran comments over the weekend in detail, including effectiveness of striking infrastructure, legal & ethical issues, alliances & civ-mil relations. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/a-bridge-and-power-day-potential07 Apr 2026 21:43 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3miwqpm5j222dhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3miwlgdbi6k2x“He also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. Mr. Trump had dismissed that possibility on the assumption that the regime would capitulate before it came to that.” https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html07 Apr 2026 20:08 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3miwlgdbi6k2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3miv3veq6fc26"Trump’s Truth Social post of 5 April 2026, and his Easter press conference the following day, are a window into a strategic culture that has abandoned the accumulated wisdom of decades of American statecraft, legal development, and alliance management." https://open.substack.com/pub/mickryan/p/a-bridge-and-power-day-potential?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web07 Apr 2026 05:57 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3miv3veq6fc26https://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3misnyln6n22g"The U.S. intel community is neither designed nor equipped to restrain a president who is moved by impulse, emotion & his own feelings. It can only provide him with info. When the president disregards what he’s told, or distorts it, that failure is his alone." https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/iran-war-intelligence-failure-trump/686694/06 Apr 2026 06:43 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3misnyln6n22ghttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mirr7lmxoc2eThe latest ultimatum from the U.S president…05 Apr 2026 22:08 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mirr7lmxoc2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3miqhuevxdk22On @cnn.com this afternoon discussing the war in Iran and the rescue of the downed USAF aircrew.05 Apr 2026 09:48 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3miqhuevxdk22https://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mipstweqw22uMy weekly update on war and strategic competition has just been published. This week, Ukraine disrupts Russia's spring offensive, the potential for U.S. boots on the ground in Iran, Pacific security and my Big 5 reading recommendations. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/strikes-summits-and-the-possibility05 Apr 2026 03:32 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mipstweqw22uhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3mikf4moct22u“The NATO portion of my medical training was severely lacking…it was very rigid. This is the way you must do it. That is not war. We have to adapt. If we don’t adapt, we die.” Good insights on rapid learning in modern war from the indomitable @bekamaciorowski https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQdDtZQnYEM02 Apr 2026 23:43 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3mikf4moct22uhttps://bsky.app/profile/warinthefuture.bsky.social/post/3miiji4cmbs2zA quick assessment of President Trump's speech today, recent operations against Iran, and what these mean for the trajectory of the war and the future of America's alliances. https://mickryan.substack.com/p/after-the-fury-war-allies-and-the02 Apr 2026 05:56 +0000at://did:plc:lq24wom5ewxadm562eeecris/app.bsky.feed.post/3miiji4cmbs2z