World Bank Macro / Climate Opinions are mine and not WB X: Kevin_Carey_WB https://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvpod74ims2sPaul Donovan (UBS): "In the Michigan consumer survey of May 2025, 29 per cent of respondents believed that US inflation would be above 15 per cent within a year. Inflation at the time was 2.4 per cent." [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Sep 2026 12:39 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvpod74ims2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvpo3dngrc2sWorld Bank Group: "In low-income countries, among the most challenging settings for private capital, PCM [private capital mobilization] was maintained at about $3 billion." https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/09/17/world-bank-group-mobilizes-record-private-capital-for-developing-countries-driving17 Sep 2026 12:34 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvpo3dngrc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvpntqpbdc2sSuriname / Paris Club: "The prepayment of the debt at the initiative of the Republic of Suriname, reflects the strong economic perspectives and an active debt management strategy by Suriname." https://clubdeparis.org/en/clubdeparis/accueil/donnees-publications/actualites/le-club-de-paris-a-accepte-la-proposition-du-suriname-de-rembourser-par-anticipation.html17 Sep 2026 12:30 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvpntqpbdc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvpnke7ags2s"Although most Asian countries have been able to avoid the kind of energy shortages and halts to production that were initially feared, they have had to pay much more for supplies." https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/17/business/economy/iran-war-energy-prices.html?unlocked_article_code=1.B1E.yjpk.QOrm6uYWwqd5&smid=url-share17 Sep 2026 12:25 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvpnke7ags2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvphho2cpc2sPakistan: "Aurangzeb [FinMin] said the entire 30 billion yuan swap line from China had been fully drawn, adding that the government had yet to decide how much additional financing it would seek when the facility comes up for renewal." https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/international-relations/pakistan-eyes-bigger-china-swap-line-expects-us-financing-decision-soon/ar-AA2cpR9w?ocid=BingNewsVerp17 Sep 2026 10:36 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvphho2cpc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvnsgorc5s2bI try to avoid pasting in screenshots from the other place, but wouldn't want the Bluesky-only economists to miss that the Iran Parliament Speaker sophisticated trolling activities on X now includes monetary policy content.16 Sep 2026 18:47 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvnsgorc5s2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvnqi3gk5c2bMoritz Kraemer: "The choice is not between paying or not paying. It is between paying earlier for mitigation and adaptation, or paying more later for disaster relief, reconstruction, food insecurity and displaced populations." [contains quote post or other embedded content]16 Sep 2026 18:12 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvnqi3gk5c2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvnq4yqmus2bVenezuela / the recurring extension of the start date for allowing transactions in the PdVSA 2020 bond, to November 5, 2026. The license number is now up to 5Z, superseding 5Y, so I wonder where the numbers go next? https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/2026091616 Sep 2026 18:06 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvnq4yqmus2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvn6ychp5c2bMichael Kremer to be World Bank Group Chief Economist (effective October 1). https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2026/09/16/michael-kremer-appointed-as-world-bank-group-chief-economist16 Sep 2026 12:59 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvn6ychp5c2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvla2j76p42wParis Club / annual meeting with private sector representatives (held on 9 September): "Stakeholders underlined the disparities, between countries seeing an improvement in their economic situation, including as a result of a debt restructuring, ..."15 Sep 2026 18:13 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvla2j76p42whttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvl5nncj442w"India's payments authority said on Tuesday a 0.4% fee would be levied on transactions above 2,000 rupees (about $20) made to merchants through the homegrown UPI network, ending more than six years of zero-cost payments that powered its rapid adoption." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/indias-upi-ends-free-era-with-fee-on-large-merchant-payments/ar-AA2chv2D?ocid=BingNewsSerp15 Sep 2026 17:30 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvl5nncj442whttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvkxlqezb42wDominican Republic / tender offer for 2027 Eurobond with new notes offering in parallel. https://www.luxse.com/pdf-viewer/10560126715 Sep 2026 15:41 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvkxlqezb42whttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvknvdekz42wColombia: important interview by newspaper El Tiempo with Minister of Finance, Miguel Gómez Martínez. https://www.eltiempo.com/economia/la-austeridad-es-el-unico-camino-y-la-ley-de-rescate-comenzara-en-octubre-su-paso-por-el-congreso-entrevista-al-ministro-de-hacienda-358603415 Sep 2026 12:48 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvknvdekz42whttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvknjsy2lm2wFT on the sizable supply response of alternative fertilizer exporters to the Hormuz disruption: "In Egypt, producers including Abu Qir Fertilizers, MOPCO, Egyptian Basic Industries Corporation and Egyptian Fertilizers Company increased exports ..."15 Sep 2026 12:41 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvknjsy2lm2whttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvkmqjvik22wTwo of the economics classics that I find missing from the "Will runaway AI cause an existential / extinction / doom level event?" discussion. If one approaches things from a Chicago perspective like Richard Posner's 2004 book Catastrophe: Risk and Response ...15 Sep 2026 12:27 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvkmqjvik22whttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvki4doff22wSenegal: ”We’re going to discuss how we can be helpful to ensure that his [debt restructuring] case goes through the G20 Common Framework at the fastest speed of any of the prior cases,” [WBG President Ajay] Banga told Reuters." https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/world-banks-banga-eyes-faster-g20-debt-restructuring-for-senegal15 Sep 2026 11:04 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvki4doff22whttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvitc56cbs2sVenezuela / latest iteration of the US Treasury OFAC sanctions update for PdVSA (General License 52C) continues the restrictions on transactions related to PdVSA debt and collateral thereof (i.e. Citgo). https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/2026091414 Sep 2026 19:19 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvitc56cbs2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mviqcw7y2s2sIndonesia (Reuters): "The latest controversy surrounding Purbaya [former FinMin] was his sudden ​announcement that sovereign wealth fund Danantara Indonesia would transfer 120 trillion rupiah ($6.8 billion) of its profits ..."14 Sep 2026 18:26 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mviqcw7y2s2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvil2j62m22s"A statement from Senegal’s council of ministers published last week said [President] Faye would make a working visit to Washington on September 14 and 15 and an official visit to Abu Dhabi on September 16 and 17." https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/senegals-president-to-meet-imf-chief-in-washington-on-september-1514 Sep 2026 16:52 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvil2j62m22shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvifpp4bfc2sJamaica / results of tender offer for selected Eurobonds. https://www.luxse.com/pdf-viewer/10559705314 Sep 2026 15:16 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvifpp4bfc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvieifnaxc2sUruguay / $300m World Bank Group policy-based lending (DPF): "The financing additionally includes a Deferred Drawdown Option (DDO), which allows Uruguay to rapidly access liquidity in the event of economic shocks, ..."14 Sep 2026 14:54 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvieifnaxc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvi2jl2qjk2s"Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema has reappointed Situmbeko Musokotwane as finance minister following last month's election, a swearing-in ceremony for the new cabinet on the Southern African country's public broadcaster showed on Monday." https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/zambian-president-reappoints-musokotwane-as-finance-minister-after-election/ar-AA2cb5ZP?ocid=BingNewsVerp14 Sep 2026 11:56 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvi2jl2qjk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvbfaqiy4c2sIMF statement on Turkmenistan: "The Board found that Turkmenistan has not provided key required data, including information on international reserve assets, official holdings of gold and foreign exchange, and a complete balance of payments ..."11 Sep 2026 20:19 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvbfaqiy4c2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvbeuufvec2s"Saudi GDP contracted 4.7% from a year earlier in the 2nd qtr, as the disruption to oil exports hammered activity. The kingdom’s budget deficit, at the equivalent of $42.7 bn in the 1st half, is already running close to the shortfall it had budgeted for the entire year." https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-shuts-down-pipeline-that-was-a-crucial-hormuz-bypass-4fe29001?st=JbAu4w&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink11 Sep 2026 20:12 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvbeuufvec2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvay3dcx422sIt's going to be quite the discussion at the NBER Tax Policy and the Economy Program conference next week, on the topic of the California billionaire tax. Figure from the paper by Boll, Saez, and Zucman. https://www.nber.org/conferences/nber-tax-policy-and-economy-conference-202611 Sep 2026 16:23 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvay3dcx422shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mvatfv5avs2s“It will be essential that the authorities work collaboratively with all stakeholders, including bondholders, to ensure the burden is fairly spread across Senegal’s financial creditors in accordance with best international practice,” they [bondholders] added." https://www.cnbcafrica.com/2026/senegal-bondholder-group-says-debt-treatment-must-be-fair-sustainable11 Sep 2026 15:00 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mvatfv5avs2shttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mv6uazc4wk2f"Despite being a diesel producer, Brazil still imports roughly a quarter of ​its diesel demand. When Petrobras is forced to ​import fuel at higher international prices than it charges domestically, ‌the ⁠margin squeeze hurts profitability." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/petrobras-eyes-diesel-price-hike-awaiting-government-measures-shield-consumers-2026-09-10/10 Sep 2026 20:10 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv6uazc4wk2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mv6qxgizwk2fFrom the latest US Treasury OFAC Iran sanctions updates, Mahdi Google is an interesting alias. https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/2026091010 Sep 2026 19:11 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv6qxgizwk2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mv6h6dlzlc2f"But other countries, including India, Russia and Saudi Arabia (which has long blocked faster action in climate COPs), argue there is no need to rush. They say the IPCC’s mandate covers far more than the Paris stocktake and it would be wrong to compress the cycle. An unhappy compromise looms." [contains quote post or other embedded content]10 Sep 2026 16:16 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv6h6dlzlc2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/kevincareywb.bsky.social/post/3mv6eigwps22fPakistan / the Eurobond issuance announced last week is starting to show up on the London Stock Exchange website, albeit with limited disclosure given the professional investor base. Pricing supplement available. https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/6AD6/the-president-of-the-islamic-republic-of-pakistan-for-and-on-behalf-of-the-islamic-republic-of-pakistan/company-page10 Sep 2026 15:27 +0000at://did:plc:mdi52im2b4vkvun6hmyhtmcf/app.bsky.feed.post/3mv6eigwps22f