MIT professor, Brookings senior fellow, series editor at Cornell Press ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, civil-military relations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Views are my own ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mlaunnsbts2q👀 "Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing Project Freedom. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trumps-abrupt-u-turn-plan-re-open-strait-hormuz-came-backlash-allies-rcna34384507 May 2026 09:10 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlaunnsbts2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml6p7rjuvk2nNone of the Iran War's stated strategic objectives have been achieved. Highly repressive regime still in Tehran, nuclear program still intact, missiles & drones still launching. And US now suddenly pausing effort to re-open Hormuz-- a problem that did not exist before the war. It's mind-boggling.06 May 2026 12:28 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml6p7rjuvk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml4ae5sgrs2pLots of care at this morning's Hegseth-Caine presser to emphasize that Project Freedom is distinct from Epic Fury, and that exchanges of fire yesterday remained low level. They sure don't want anyone bringing up the War Powers Resolution....05 May 2026 12:56 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4ae5sgrs2phttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml443nlwqk2t"European security officials say they are worried Tehran might later retaliate for the killing of senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by targeting a western leader or military asset." https://www.ft.com/content/63ddff5f-2d47-4a5b-9ba5-e543ac756717?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8&syn-25a6b1a6=1#myft:notification:daily-email:content05 May 2026 11:40 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml443nlwqk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml25xggsjs2oUS decision to send warships into the Strait still carries significant risk. Not something you do if you think your blockade is about to produce coercive success from afar.04 May 2026 17:08 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml25xggsjs2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml25wqbp4s2o"U.S. military forces including warships and aircraft actively protected several commercial vessels from Iranian attacks Monday" https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-defies-trump-and-tightens-its-grip-on-hormuz-01a4e32b?mod=hp_lead_pos104 May 2026 17:08 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml25wqbp4s2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkzvwlwtek2nI would love to be wrong, but this feels like a nothing burger. Essentially a coordination cell. Reinforces that Iran still controls the Strait and US is reluctant to regularly send in warships. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-u-s-will-guide-stranded-ships-through-strait-of-hormuz-09e0d7cf04 May 2026 14:44 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkzvwlwtek2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkwzpg652c2mRussia and China continue to win the Iran War. https://www.ft.com/content/f87a8b04-e683-4e0e-8c66-647d23bfc2ff?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8&syn-25a6b1a6=1#myft:notification:daily-email:content03 May 2026 11:14 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkwzpg652c2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkrzq7afqk22"If we’re running low after a few weeks of fighting Iran, we’re nowhere near where we need to be for Russia and China" https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/us/politics/trumps-hegseth-weapons-production.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20260501&instance_id=174937&nl=today%27s-headlines&regi_id=90763197&segment_id=219135&user_id=4d258e7aa440a894bbf7a42d2d5644f601 May 2026 11:31 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkrzq7afqk22https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkkovoun2c2qBut I was told this would all be over in 6 weeks https://www.axios.com/2026/04/28/iran-war-peace-talks-stalemate28 Apr 2026 13:29 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkkovoun2c2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkklfuklos2a"Vance has repeatedly questioned the Defense Department’s depiction of the war in Iran and whether the Pentagon has understated what appears to be the drastic depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles." https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/iran-war-vance-hegseth-trump/686905/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-atlantic-am&utm_term=The%20Atlantic%20AM28 Apr 2026 12:26 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkklfuklos2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mj7q4bcclk2tIt is stunning that the US apparently did not take Iran’s threats to close the Strait seriously, nor does the campaign seem to have recognized the specific military importance of mines as a tool for asymmetric Iranian leverage. Quick thread 1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/iran-mines-strait.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20260411&instance_id=173920&nl=today%27s-headlines&regi_id=90763197&segment_id=218053&user_id=4d258e7aa440a894bbf7a42d2d5644f611 Apr 2026 11:26 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj7q4bcclk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mj7q3mznqs2hThe trope is that the US achieves its military objectives but fails to translate them into strategic success. In this war even the first part isn't true. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-has-thousands-of-missiles-and-could-retrieve-launchers-u-s-intelligence-finds-eaa230ec11 Apr 2026 11:25 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj7q3mznqs2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mixo3iyhks26First rule of TACO is don't talk about TACO. The President has found a way to climb down from a disastrously ill-conceived war that was not achieving U.S. objectives. Let him.08 Apr 2026 06:28 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mixo3iyhks26https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mixn6ugxmk2qI am all in favor of this de-escalation. But if Iran gets even some of what it is asking for in its peace plan, it will clearly end this war in a stronger position than it was in beforehand.08 Apr 2026 06:12 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mixn6ugxmk2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mixn6jawlk2q"The war-planning group had been kept so tight that the two key officials who would need to manage the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright, were excluded." https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share08 Apr 2026 06:12 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mixn6jawlk2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mitt65mads2vYes, a lunatic controlling nuclear weapons would be very scary. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Apr 2026 17:49 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mitt65mads2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mitfdo2bps2wThe Iran War has gobbled up a breathtaking amount of U.S. military capability vital for deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-04/us-deploys-bulk-of-stealthy-long-range-missile-for-iran-war?embedded-checkout=true06 Apr 2026 13:41 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mitfdo2bps2whttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3milggabzns2pThe core issue: "Trump told them he wants to wind down the campaign, wary of a protracted conflict. At the same time, he wants the operation to be a decisive success." We get to pick one, at best. https://time.com/article/2026/04/02/trump-iran-off-ramp/03 Apr 2026 09:39 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3milggabzns2phttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3milgdyd4cc2oThis is a really important point. I would argue that Hegseth's impact on actual defense strategy and policy is going to be minimal. But his impact on the military as an institution, and on civil-military relations, is already profound and negative. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Apr 2026 09:38 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3milgdyd4cc2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3milg7su5fk2uThe administration does not seem to grasp that the Strait of Hormuz is the center of gravity in this war. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/control-over-strait-of-hormuz-will-determine-who-wins-the-war-c7ed7e62?st=4e91iZ&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink03 Apr 2026 09:36 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3milg7su5fk2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mikkitrvq222Firing senior officers for cause is one thing. Firing them repeatedly on this scale and with no explanation is unprecedented in our nation's history. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/02/us/politics/hegseth-fires-general-randy-george.html03 Apr 2026 01:19 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mikkitrvq222https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mikk4cdjqk2nThis is why the Strait is not open & won't be any time soon. Not only does Iran retain significant ballistic missiles, drones, mines & small boats, but US campaign has not prioritized destroying Iran's anti-ship cruise missiles--a threat well known prior to the war. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/politics/iran-missiles-us-military-strikes-trump03 Apr 2026 01:12 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mikk4cdjqk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mijlyv3v4k22There is a lot I like in this analysis, but it seems to radically underestimate scale of forces that would be required for effective escort operations during an ongoing war. A handful of destroyers and some patrol aircraft won't do it. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-04-02/iran-war-nato-allies-should-clear-the-strait-of-hormuz?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTc3NTEyNjEyOSwiZXhwIjoxNzc1NzMwOTI5LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJUQ1VQWTRLR1pBSkIwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIxODJBRTAzNUY2NDc0ODkwODhEM0VCRUVGRUUzQkJFMiJ9.R6nwSUYJ5isLJxG6KEr5fX04ZqGfyE2QLlEioIMxceA02 Apr 2026 16:14 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mijlyv3v4k22https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mijjjl47qs2sUseful discussion & imagery of Iranian islands in the Gulf-- but I would push back on the notion that it is these islands that give Iran a stranglehold on the Gulf. 1/2 https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-strait-of-hormuz-control-islands-44b82207?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_402 Apr 2026 15:29 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mijjjl47qs2shttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mijcijvfr22q"In total 142 vessels have transited since the start of the month, but 67% of that traffic has a direct affiliation with Iran. This figure rises to 90% when looking at traffic in recent days." https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1156720/Tehrans-toll-booth-system-is-now-controlling-Hormuz-traffic02 Apr 2026 13:23 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mijcijvfr22qhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mij6ylt5ps2l"Saudi Arabia at first saw benefits in the Islamic regime being weakened. But Riyadh now fears that Trump will declare victory and withdraw, leaving the Gulf to deal with a wounded but more hawkish, militaristic regime in Tehran able to continue threatening its neighbours" https://www.ft.com/content/dcbd5448-2357-44a7-b2b0-05de1b68e69f?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8&syn-25a6b1a6=1#myft:notification:daily-email:content02 Apr 2026 12:21 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mij6ylt5ps2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mij5hp6mec2kTrump speech is implicit recognition that Iran war is not going well & US options for escalating its way out are bad. 1/02 Apr 2026 11:54 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mij5hp6mec2khttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3migubsvayc2kAdditional objectives achieved in this war: -Iran running a toll booth in the Strait -Iran retaining HEU & more motivated to build a bomb -Iran regularly launching missiles and drones -Iranian hardliners elevated and empowered01 Apr 2026 14:04 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3migubsvayc2khttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3migu7xc6mk2kAny lasting constraints on Iran's nuclear program achieved through this war (none have been achieved yet) should be measured not against the alternative of doing nothing, but against what could have been and was achieved through diplomatic alternatives that the President has repeatedly disregarded.01 Apr 2026 14:03 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3migu7xc6mk2k