MIT professor, Brookings senior fellow, series editor at Cornell Press ⎮ Foreign policy, military operations, civil-military relations, nuclear weapons, authoritarianism ⎮ Views are my own ⎮ Book: The Dictator's Army https://www.caitlintalmadge.com/https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mtehl6xggk2aThe administration still doesn't get that Iran has a vote on when this conflict ends. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-plan-escalate-war-cc657664?mod=djem10point18 Aug 2026 14:48 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtehl6xggk2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mtehjzvsy22aDelighted to have joined The Beijing Brief podcast from Taipei for a discussion of Taiwan's defense policy and security environment with Ryan Hass and Jon Czin! https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-secure-is-taiwan-the-view-from-taipei/18 Aug 2026 14:48 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtehjzvsy22ahttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mtblpjjoq22wI'm old enough to remember when South Korea was the linchpin of US plans to increase ship building capacity. (That was 3 days ago btw.)17 Aug 2026 11:24 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtblpjjoq22whttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mtblomm3lk2wSaying the Lincoln has among the lowest number of mental health cases among US carriers isn’t the great talking point you think it is17 Aug 2026 11:24 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mtblomm3lk2whttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mt72kcwew22aTranslation: Trump launched a war with the unrealistic goal of eliminating Iran's nuclear program at low cost, a goal now being jettisoned in a desperate attempt to return to the status quo ante in the Strait, which is also likely to fail.16 Aug 2026 11:12 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt72kcwew22ahttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mt72jidx2c2aIf you need more convincing on why large unhardened bases are a big vulnerability both in the Gulf and Indo-Pacific https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/14/us/politics/uss-abraham-lincoln-trump-supplies-diego-garcia.html16 Aug 2026 11:11 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mt72jidx2c2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mpqialo3q22w“Chances are this MOU is both the first and last deal that Trump and Iran ever sign" https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-pledged-no-forever-wars-now-he-risks-forever-talks-with-iran-18e1c350?mod=djem10point03 Jul 2026 11:51 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mpqialo3q22whttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mp7bjz4gek2sMore evidence that US-Iran agreement has not effectively addressed Iran's continuing ability to interfere with traffic in the Strait-- a source of Iranian strategic leverage that did not exist before the war. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/world/middleeast/strait-of-hormuz-iran-attack.html26 Jun 2026 15:36 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mp7bjz4gek2shttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mp7a7lr2q22uIranian long-range precision strike in the Gulf is a harbinger of serious threats to U.S. power projection not only there but also in the Indo-Pacific. Mara Karlin and I wrote a piece on this a couple weeks ago @brookings.edu linked below. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-us-naval-base-bahrain-e87bbca3?st=ym1GT926 Jun 2026 15:12 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mp7a7lr2q22uhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mp77wjgius2mNothing new for Presidents and Secretaries to fire generals-- that is entirely their right. But doing so en masse without explanation is unprecedented and corrosive, as Admiral McRaven perfectly explains in this piece. https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/06/mcraven-americans-deserve-answers/687708/?gift=eCFmdcnBB_DAXYSiZJH7hWfg5iHa9Y2rTaOFiv_0l48&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share26 Jun 2026 15:07 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mp77wjgius2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mofvpphqwc2v"A senior administration official said Iran knows U.S. is unwilling to return to war, raising possibility that Tehran could close the Strait again for its own diplomatic leverage. The official said the agreement is likely to be less restrictive than the 2015 deal." https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-peace-deal-how-54988a6e?mod=hp_lead_pos2a16 Jun 2026 13:28 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mofvpphqwc2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3modj43tl7226There is a lot we don’t know about the MOU US and Iran apparently plan to sign later this week, but a few things stand out based on reports we are seeing: 1/415 Jun 2026 14:37 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3modj43tl7226https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3modj2enhl226Some questions about the purported US-Iran MOU: - Why was war necessary to achieve what is in this agreement? - How does this agreement improve on the JCPOA that Trump abandoned in 2018 even though US certified Iran as being in compliance? 1/215 Jun 2026 14:36 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3modj2enhl226https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3modizem6y226THIS: "Even if the ceasefire holds, the strategic landscape has shifted in ways that cannot be undone. Iran’s months‑long blockade shattered a decades‑old taboo and demonstrated its ability to weaponise the strait at will." https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1157463/A-fragile-thaw-in-Hormuz-but-timing-and-sequence-now-matter15 Jun 2026 14:35 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3modizem6y226https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mnxdghxjcc22Delighted to share this @brookings.edu piece with Mara Karlin on the long-term military implications of the Iran war. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-end-of-the-american-way-of-war/10 Jun 2026 18:23 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnxdghxjcc22https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mnucdynigk24“Iran’s decisions show they believe they have the upper hand, with Trump deterred from renewing the fighting." https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-attack-on-israel-reveals-new-and-aggressive-regional-ambitions-46a63383?mod=djem10point09 Jun 2026 13:26 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mnucdynigk24https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mns42f5rys2iClearest sign yet that Iran doesn't believe it lost this war. Bodes very poorly for any deal-making with US. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/08/world/middleeast/israel-iran-strikes-regional-gains.html?smid=url-share&smid=nytcore-ios-share&rsrc=cl-share08 Jun 2026 16:28 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mns42f5rys2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mns3zvufts2iIran appears to be entering the extended deterrence business. "Where it once used allies such as Hezbollah to insulate itself from conflict with Israel, it is now fighting Israel directly to defend its allies, Citrinowicz said." https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-and-netanyahus-rift-over-lebanon-is-deepening-df16b6c908 Jun 2026 16:28 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mns3zvufts2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mlaunnsbts2q👀 "Trump surprised Gulf allies by announcing Project Freedom. In response, the Kingdom informed the U.S. it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh or fly through Saudi airspace to support the effort." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trumps-abrupt-u-turn-plan-re-open-strait-hormuz-came-backlash-allies-rcna34384507 May 2026 09:10 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlaunnsbts2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml6p7rjuvk2nNone of the Iran War's stated strategic objectives have been achieved. Highly repressive regime still in Tehran, nuclear program still intact, missiles & drones still launching. And US now suddenly pausing effort to re-open Hormuz-- a problem that did not exist before the war. It's mind-boggling.06 May 2026 12:28 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml6p7rjuvk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml4ae5sgrs2pLots of care at this morning's Hegseth-Caine presser to emphasize that Project Freedom is distinct from Epic Fury, and that exchanges of fire yesterday remained low level. They sure don't want anyone bringing up the War Powers Resolution....05 May 2026 12:56 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4ae5sgrs2phttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml443nlwqk2t"European security officials say they are worried Tehran might later retaliate for the killing of senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, by targeting a western leader or military asset." https://www.ft.com/content/63ddff5f-2d47-4a5b-9ba5-e543ac756717?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8&syn-25a6b1a6=1#myft:notification:daily-email:content05 May 2026 11:40 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml443nlwqk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml25xggsjs2oUS decision to send warships into the Strait still carries significant risk. Not something you do if you think your blockade is about to produce coercive success from afar.04 May 2026 17:08 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml25xggsjs2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3ml25wqbp4s2o"U.S. military forces including warships and aircraft actively protected several commercial vessels from Iranian attacks Monday" https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-defies-trump-and-tightens-its-grip-on-hormuz-01a4e32b?mod=hp_lead_pos104 May 2026 17:08 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml25wqbp4s2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkzvwlwtek2nI would love to be wrong, but this feels like a nothing burger. Essentially a coordination cell. Reinforces that Iran still controls the Strait and US is reluctant to regularly send in warships. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-u-s-will-guide-stranded-ships-through-strait-of-hormuz-09e0d7cf04 May 2026 14:44 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkzvwlwtek2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkwzpg652c2mRussia and China continue to win the Iran War. https://www.ft.com/content/f87a8b04-e683-4e0e-8c66-647d23bfc2ff?desktop=true&segmentId=7c8f09b9-9b61-4fbb-9430-9208a9e233c8&syn-25a6b1a6=1#myft:notification:daily-email:content03 May 2026 11:14 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkwzpg652c2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkrzq7afqk22"If we’re running low after a few weeks of fighting Iran, we’re nowhere near where we need to be for Russia and China" https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/us/politics/trumps-hegseth-weapons-production.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20260501&instance_id=174937&nl=today%27s-headlines&regi_id=90763197&segment_id=219135&user_id=4d258e7aa440a894bbf7a42d2d5644f601 May 2026 11:31 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkrzq7afqk22https://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkkovoun2c2qBut I was told this would all be over in 6 weeks https://www.axios.com/2026/04/28/iran-war-peace-talks-stalemate28 Apr 2026 13:29 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkkovoun2c2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mkklfuklos2a"Vance has repeatedly questioned the Defense Department’s depiction of the war in Iran and whether the Pentagon has understated what appears to be the drastic depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles." https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/04/iran-war-vance-hegseth-trump/686905/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=the-atlantic-am&utm_term=The%20Atlantic%20AM28 Apr 2026 12:26 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkklfuklos2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/proftalmadge.bsky.social/post/3mj7q4bcclk2tIt is stunning that the US apparently did not take Iran’s threats to close the Strait seriously, nor does the campaign seem to have recognized the specific military importance of mines as a tool for asymmetric Iranian leverage. Quick thread 1/ https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/us/politics/iran-mines-strait.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20260411&instance_id=173920&nl=today%27s-headlines&regi_id=90763197&segment_id=218053&user_id=4d258e7aa440a894bbf7a42d2d5644f611 Apr 2026 11:26 +0000at://did:plc:mja3drhkef5qk7m5o7fnbn4z/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj7q4bcclk2t