Professor of Economics @ Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV Research on International Trade; Torcedor do/Fan of CAM; 🇧🇷🇬🇧 https://sites.google.com/site/emanuelornelaseo/https://bsky.app/profile/emanuelornelas.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/emanuelornelas.bsky.social/post/3mcscmlzowk27and yet some escalation would actually be positive, or else the threats (and actions) will get worse. That's how bullies operate. We (@julianhi.nz @ckhead.bsky.social @schularick.bsky.social & I. Méjean) made this point in July, and it only got worse since then: https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/an-alliance-for-open-trade-how-to-counter-trumps-tariffs-18259 [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 Jan 2026 18:49 +0000at://did:plc:n52d4fwtxv7hbb2a2vavnhpe/app.bsky.feed.post/3mcscmlzowk27https://bsky.app/profile/emanuelornelas.bsky.social/post/3malx2f2spc2yThank you for coming, Christian. Any great session on export promotion ought to have you included! [contains quote post or other embedded content]22 Dec 2025 19:15 +0000at://did:plc:n52d4fwtxv7hbb2a2vavnhpe/app.bsky.feed.post/3malx2f2spc2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/emanuelornelas.bsky.social/post/3lwn7rkakbs2aService Offshoring and Export Experience url: https://academic.oup.com/ej/article-abstract/135/670/1980/8088410 Experienced exporters are more likely to source services at destination. Once offshoring, they exhibit reduced volatility and are less likely to exit foreign markets. @gberlingieri.bsky.social18 Aug 2025 01:12 +0000at://did:plc:n52d4fwtxv7hbb2a2vavnhpe/app.bsky.feed.post/3lwn7rkakbs2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/emanuelornelas.bsky.social/post/3luppurvpdk2bLet’s not lose sight of the big picture. Appeasement won’t work. Instead of rushing to minimize short-term costs, we should stick to WTO principles and pursue a coordinated, proportional, multi-country retaliatory response against rule-breakers [contains quote post or other embedded content]24 Jul 2025 14:15 +0000at://did:plc:n52d4fwtxv7hbb2a2vavnhpe/app.bsky.feed.post/3luppurvpdk2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/emanuelornelas.bsky.social/post/3lrhvph4a5k2oA picture is (sometimes) worth just as the paper: [contains quote post or other embedded content]13 Jun 2025 07:23 +0000at://did:plc:n52d4fwtxv7hbb2a2vavnhpe/app.bsky.feed.post/3lrhvph4a5k2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/emanuelornelas.bsky.social/post/3lrb5d4qmyc2nAn example of the intricate consequences of a trade war between large countries (and this was the “mild” trade war of 2018-2020…) [contains quote post or other embedded content]10 Jun 2025 14:50 +0000at://did:plc:n52d4fwtxv7hbb2a2vavnhpe/app.bsky.feed.post/3lrb5d4qmyc2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/emanuelornelas.bsky.social/post/3lolffysxbc27Trump justifies his protectionist policies as “the quickest way to bring our jobs back to our country.” We show that the first US–China trade war indeed created jobs — in Brazil. [contains quote post or other embedded content]07 May 2025 12:26 +0000at://did:plc:n52d4fwtxv7hbb2a2vavnhpe/app.bsky.feed.post/3lolffysxbc27