Data Science @VoteHub.com | election modeling, mapping, and other related things | 🇺🇸🇨🇦 | exhaustive ideas at cohese.orghttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzhdg55wc22rTexas has elected a Democrat to the Senate for the first time since 1988. Ken Paxton is running more than 20 points behind Trump's 2024 margin in Dallas, Fort Bend, and Bexar, James Talarico leads statewide by 14, and there is no path to victory left for Paxton. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 02:43 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzhdg55wc22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzhc6nu7ak2rHouse control was close to a given for Democrats at this point, and Senate control now looks very likely too. What we're watching now is the extent of it, and the fallout from what is looking more and more like a blue tsunami. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 02:21 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzhc6nu7ak2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzhbrnok7c2rTicket splitting is real in Texas tonight. Ken Paxton is running about 80,000 votes behind Greg Abbott on nearly identical turnout, and James Talarico is running 4.6 points ahead of Gina Hinojosa on margin. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 02:14 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzhbrnok7c2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzhakqxfjk2rThis is looking amazing for Zach Dembo. With 62% of KY-06 in, he leads by nearly 25,000, and Ralph Alvarado would need to win the rest by over 21 points to tie. No race call yet, but Dembo is very strongly favored, and Alvarado's path is close to imaginary.04 Nov 2026 01:52 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzhakqxfjk2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh7k4qcd22rRoger Marshall is running about 38 points behind Trump's 2024 margin in Shawnee County (Topeka), a county Harris essentially tied. Adam Hamilton is up 39 with a quarter of the vote in, but expect that to tighten as more Republican Election Day votes come in. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 01:34 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh7k4qcd22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh745pqa22rChris Pappas wins New Hampshire's open Senate seat. From the first towns in, he was beating what he needed almost everywhere, often by double digits, and John Sununu never found a path. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 01:26 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh745pqa22rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh6fsdcmc2rTexas Governor 11% Reported: 🔵 Gina Hinojosa – 713,515 (63.2%) 🔴 Greg Abbott – 398,903 (35.3%) Results per AP04 Nov 2026 01:13 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh6fsdcmc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh6b7wngk2rThese are incredible results for James Talarico: he's beating his early vote goals by 11 to 15 points in Dallas, Fort Bend, and Denton. He's favored in this race right now, and it's possible he wins by high single digits.04 Nov 2026 01:11 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh6b7wngk2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh64tt3sc2rjust frankly incredible numbers out of Fort Bend. Harris barely held this county in 2024, winning it by under 2. Tonight James Talarico is up nearly 30 in the early vote, a 28-point shift. If this continues Ken Paxton may have a serious problem. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 01:08 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh64tt3sc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh5uly5xs2rReally rough drop for Ken Paxton out of Denton County. He's running about 23 points behind Trump's 2024 early vote margin in a suburban county Trump carried by 13, and James Talarico is winning it! [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 01:04 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh5uly5xs2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh53bd4os2tThe shift toward Annie Andrews in South Carolina is remarkably uniform: 37 to 49 points shifts from Trump's 2024 early vote margin in every county with meaningful vote counted. Broadly, this is another indication that the national environment will be very blue.04 Nov 2026 00:50 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh53bd4os2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh3s3nhvs2tKY-06, the first competitive House race of the night and a big early indicator for the nation, is looking like a bloodbath for Ralph Alvarado. He leads by 15, but he'sshort of what he needs, including Jessamine, where Zach Dembo is leading a county Trump won by 36. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 00:27 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh3s3nhvs2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh3o4okac2tEarly New Hampshire returns look strong for Chris Pappas. In every town with a meaningful number of votes in so far, he's beating what he needs to win, mostly by double digits: Somersworth by 18, Farmington by 17, Concord by 14, Tilton by 12, Keene by 11. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 00:24 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh3o4okac2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh3juptlc2tPappas is up 18 with 2% in, well ahead of Harris's 2024 margin in New Hampshire (about D+3), but it's far too early to read much into it. What this means depends entirely on which towns have reported, so we'll compare town by town as more comes in. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 00:22 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh3juptlc2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh33lrz5c2tAndy Barr is trailing Trump's 2024 margin by about 24 points in Jefferson County's early and absentee vote, but that still isn't enough for Charles Booker. Booker needed roughly D+50 in this vote to stay on pace statewide, and he's at D+44. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 00:14 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh33lrz5c2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh2xmsyk22tA really bad drop for Alvarado. Ralph Alvarado is trailing Trump's 2024 margin by about 29 points in Jessamine County Early Vote. This is a county Trump won by 36, and Zach Dembo is currently leading. Alvarado needed roughly R+12 here to stay on pace in KY-06, and he's losing it. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 00:12 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh2xmsyk22thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh2sqxc3s2tMark Warner wins reelection in Virginia. In the current environment, we don't see Virginia as in play, and nothing we're seeing tonight gives Bert Mizusawa a path to victory. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 00:09 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh2sqxc3s2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzh2dmx7wk2tBarr is trailing Trump's 2024 margin by about 16 in Laurel County, but with 71% in he's at R+54, well ahead of the R+42 he needs here. The newest batch went about R+59 for him, which looks like Election Day vote coming in redder than the early vote, as we expected. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Nov 2026 00:01 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzh2dmx7wk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgzo3h64s2tBarr is trailing Trump's 2024 margin by roughly 13 in Taylor County, but it's still a good update for him. The newest batch broke his way by about 51 points, and with 46% in he's running about 16 points ahead of what he needs here. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2026 23:49 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgzo3h64s2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgyx26dgc2tAndy Barr is running about 20 points behind Trump's 2024 margin in Nelson County's early and absentee vote. Still, he's about 12 points ahead of his goal with that vote, so this is a solid drop for Barr. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2026 23:36 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgyx26dgc2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgytkh56c2tRough early drop for Ralph Alvarado in KY-06. With about a quarter of the expected vote in from Anderson County, he leads by 23, well short of his goal for the pre-tabulated vote and about 22 points behind Trump's 2024 margin with that same vote. A great sign for Zach Dembo, though it's one county. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2026 23:34 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgytkh56c2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgydlwsi22tStrong drop for Andy Barr out of Taylor County. This looks like the pre-tabulated early and absentee vote, and while Barr is running about 13 points behind Trump's 2024 margin with that vote, he's still well ahead of what he needs to win statewide. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2026 23:25 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgydlwsi22thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgxz7pn7k2tEarly drop from Greenup County, a small county in northeastern Kentucky. Booker is running about 28 points ahead of Harris's 2024 early vote margin here, However, this is just the early and absentee vote, and he's still a bit short of where he needs to be. It's a fine drop for the Booker campaign. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2026 23:19 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgxz7pn7k2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgxgngw2k2tGood drop for Steyer [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2026 23:09 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgxgngw2k2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgxc6ywlk2tGood initial results for Andy Barr out of Laurel County. We expect the vote to get more Republican as the night goes on, and he's already overperforming what he needs to win this race. Quite a good drop for the Barr campaign to start the night. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2026 23:06 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgxc6ywlk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgvce5lrk2t [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Nov 2026 22:30 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgvce5lrk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzgsaj6glk2tWith storms today, including NWS-confirmed tornado touchdowns, we @VoteHub quickly drew up an exposure index using VCU vote-method data and NOAA forecasts. LA-04, IA-03 and LA-05 lead covered races in our 3 p.m. outlook through poll closing. IA-03 is competitive, LA's are solid R.03 Nov 2026 21:36 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzgsaj6glk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzduyqn4ek25I expect Democrats to win 53 Senate seats, but getting there means several close races breaking their way. My midterm predictions, and a bit of what I’ll be watching on election night: mccomb.ca/midterms https://mccomb.ca/midterms02 Nov 2026 17:47 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzduyqn4ek25https://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzdtpv7fq22sYou can now see our whole forecast from the terminal! run: npx github:de-bayes/votehub-cli Have fun!02 Nov 2026 17:24 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzdtpv7fq22shttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mzdtuhecuc2sWith the final numbers, El-Sayed's campaign says it raised $2.4M Sunday, up from $1.2M in four hours. For scale, his biggest day in disclosed individual donations through Oct. 14 was $1.43M. Purple shows the campaign-reported total. https://x.com/ryanjmccomb/status/211707477185050624802 Nov 2026 17:27 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzdtuhecuc2s