Data Science Fellow @VoteHub.comhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mekhlehll22cHey, is that me? :) https://evanstonroundtable.com/2026/02/10/eths-student-aims-to-forecast-9th-district-congressional-race-using-betting-market-data/11 Feb 2026 02:46 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mekhlehll22chttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3meepk3js4c2sIL9.org MODEL!! yay! After overwriting tons of data multiple times in Stata, we have the first model, tons of tedious work but check it out 👇 Model: il9.org/odds https://IL9.org08 Feb 2026 19:53 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3meepk3js4c2shttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mee3rfz3322s25,000 simulations in, this is what the model is saying. Due to Kat's apparent fervent support among people who identify as "very liberal," (MDW crosstabs) she receives a better vote share when fewer people show up and the highest propensity liberals. For context 75,000 showed up in 2024.08 Feb 2026 13:59 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mee3rfz3322shttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3med5g5htfc2sOfficial #IL09 Forecasting thread! Let's keep it here 👇08 Feb 2026 04:56 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3med5g5htfc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3med2ma57p22stransit use may be the #1 predictor of high-propensity dem primary voters??08 Feb 2026 04:06 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3med2ma57p22shttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3med2grr2bc2sHmmmmmm.....08 Feb 2026 04:03 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3med2grr2bc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3mecvzrmlm22xA whale (or a sharp for all we know) bought a ton of YES contracts on Kat today. Immediately, the market makers came back to a bid-ask of 19 at 30 (now much tighter with 20 at 25). However, Kalshi still showed 37% odds, IL9.org immediately recognized this and throttled the Kalshi last-price weight.08 Feb 2026 02:44 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3mecvzrmlm22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3meckzb2bws2xCurrently a 31% chance of a Biss-1st/ Fine-2nd finish! Check out more advanced Heatmap data and more 👇 IL9.org07 Feb 2026 23:27 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3meckzb2bws2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/bayespr.bsky.social/post/3kfvumjexha2wOne thing I have noticed about this place is that the average education level is close to or above a masters.06 Dec 2023 22:12 +0000at://did:plc:nw7wloewfi2ellfmark2ucus/app.bsky.feed.post/3kfvumjexha2w