Working on all things tax and econ policy for Bipartisan Policy Center.https://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mjjqhxalsc23It's Tax Day! Here's a thread on what we know about how the tax filing season has gone so far. 🧵 REFUNDS: ⬆️ than last year, ⬇️ than some predicted. Current average is $3,462, which is $346 (11%) higher than 2025. Some were predicting $3,800 or $4,000+. Haven't seen that yet.15 Apr 2026 10:59 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjjqhxalsc23https://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mimn6ekl4c25The Trump admin's FY2027 budget request would cut IRS funding 13%, but not at equal levels: - Enforcement: 18% cut (-$0.9B) 📉 - Tech and Ops Support: 18% cut (-$0.6B) 📉 - Taxpayer Services: 3% increase (+$0.1B) 📈03 Apr 2026 21:13 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mimn6ekl4c25https://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mhgeegv3os2hNew from Fred Hernandez and I @bipartisanpolicy.org: should Congress increase taxes on sports betting? The Yale Budget Lab recently scored our 5% excise tax option as raising nearly $100B over 10. We dive in, with a 👀 at prediction markets as well. https://bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/should-congress-increase-taxes-on-sports-betting/19 Mar 2026 15:54 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhgeegv3os2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mfnr6wiiyk26The $1,776 military bonuses came from appropriations in the One Big Beautiful Bill, not tariff revenue. t.co/nSLJNdCo3K25 Feb 2026 03:42 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfnr6wiiyk26https://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mfnotnxbak26You can't balance the budget through cutting waste fraud and abuse alone. Entitlement spending and interest expense are driving our spending.25 Feb 2026 03:00 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfnotnxbak26https://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mfno46ukvc2rThe Congressional Budget Office estimates that, even with the larger IEEPA tariffs now ruled illegal by SCOTUS, tariff revenues would only make up 6% of federal revenues over the next 10 years.25 Feb 2026 02:46 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfno46ukvc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mfnnsp3auc2rHere's what the tax cut looks like for someone claiming the overtime and/or tips deduction. At maximum amounts, it can lead to a tax cut of $6,000. For most taxpayers, it will be smaller, due to rules/limits. For more: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/the-2025-tax-bill-no-taxes-on-overtime-simplified/ https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/new-irs-rules-no-tax-on-tips/25 Feb 2026 02:41 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfnnsp3auc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mfnnm3hfnc2rOn a nominal dollar basis, the One Big Beautiful Bill is the largest tax cut in history. As a share of GDP, the bipartisan deal to make the Bush tax cuts permanent was larger.25 Feb 2026 02:37 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfnnm3hfnc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mfcrvfcv7k2dTrump has announced he's using Sec. 122 to implement a "global" 10% tariff. Can last for up to 150 days (so perhaps July 20, 2026). Advantage of 122 is it requires no investigation and no waiting period. Disadvantage is it's capped at a 15% rate and 150 days. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/20/trump-global-trade-tariff-supreme-court.html [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Feb 2026 18:55 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfcrvfcv7k2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3mfckrvdpu22hWondering where the Trump administration might go next after the SCOTUS ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs? We have a chart for you @bipartisanpolicy.org! Web version here: www.datawrapper.de/_/kvams/?v=5 And thanks to @bbkogan.bsky.social for reminding me to post here more often :)20 Feb 2026 16:48 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3mfckrvdpu22hhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3methzhxibk2kLast night we got our first IRS update on the 2026 tax filing season. While it's too early to lock in trends: - Avg refund is $2,290, ⬆️ than most recent years - 22M returns have been received, ⬇️ from recent years - 127M have visited IRS.gov, ⬆️ from last year https://bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/the-2026-tax-filing-season-what-to-know/14 Feb 2026 16:48 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3methzhxibk2khttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3me2poa5oic24We've said before that this filing season will be a stress test on the IRS: funding cuts, staff reductions, OBBB changes (see next post). This story highlights an early response to that stress test: involuntary, 4-month reassignments of HR/IT staff to taxpayer services. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Feb 2026 20:29 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3me2poa5oic24https://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3me2atfonrc2rNew from us @bipartisanpolicy.org: crypto tax policy is a hot topic on Capitol Hill right now. We have some broad thoughts on how lawmakers should be thinking about de minimis, mining/staking, and more: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/issue-brief/how-should-cryptocurrency-be-taxed-bipartisan-principles-on-mining-staking-de-minimis-and-more/04 Feb 2026 16:03 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3me2atfonrc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3lqkvfvvtg22tPresident Trump and Speaker Johnson have both called out the Congressional Budget Office's 1.8% economic growth assumption for the next decade. Setting aside the notion CBO does projections based on the party in power (they don't), growth has been on a clear downward trend for decades.01 Jun 2025 18:30 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3lqkvfvvtg22thttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3llxa3aa7tc2oCongress' tax scorekeeper, JCT, is out with new scores today on the cost of extending the 2017 GOP tax cuts. JCT finds that extension costs $4.1 trillion over 10 years, and $700 billion more tacked on due to the extra interest payments we'll have to make on our debt. https://punchbowl.news/wyden_merkley_neal_boyle_release_new_estimate_of_republican_tax_planpdf/04 Apr 2025 01:07 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3llxa3aa7tc2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3llupoe2pcc2bNew from Rachel Snyderman and I: What’s in the Senate GOP budget? 💸 1) up to $5.7 TRILLION in higher deficits/debt 🫣 2) an attempt to obscure a huge portion of that behind a "current policy" baseline that says tax cuts are free. Read more: https://bipartisanpolicy.org/explainer/whats-in-the-fy2025-senate-budget-resolution/03 Apr 2025 01:08 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3llupoe2pcc2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3lloti5cnq22oHappy baseline week. Remember: no budgetary rule can make $4.5 trillion in tax cuts cost $0! Current policy just obscures the cost from the public and breaks decades of precedent.31 Mar 2025 17:00 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3lloti5cnq22ohttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3lkvqgfbw7s2j📈 Congressional Budget Office finds extending Trump tax cuts w/o pay-fors would increase debt to GDP by almost 50 percentage points by 2054. The baseline is a political choice, but it doesn't change that extending the tax cuts w/o paying for them adds trillions to debt. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/6125521 Mar 2025 17:29 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkvqgfbw7s2jhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3lklw4sq6tc2rThe baseline debate is important because it's about transparency and honesty. What it doesn't change is that extending the 2017 tax cuts costs $4 trillion over a decade. Some friends here do a great job of explaining this for folks who aren't enmeshed in nerdy budget battles. [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Mar 2025 19:44 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3lklw4sq6tc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3lkldt2dad222Aaron Judge's contract pays $40 million this year, but the Yankees are just continuing his current contract so it actually costs $0. Sound ridiculous? This is the "current policy" gimmick some Republicans are mulling for tax cuts. Great metaphors here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/17/upshot/budget-baseline-metaphors-republicans.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4k4.VL20.NXtEK-j9cVbN&smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare17 Mar 2025 14:17 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkldt2dad222https://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3lkgzymfhs22mMe convincing myself my 401(k) balance isn't down if I don't check it:15 Mar 2025 21:10 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkgzymfhs22mhttps://bsky.app/profile/andrewlautz.bsky.social/post/3lgskvuq5dc2wThe GOP's reconciliation bill is a moving target, and the menu of options changes daily. Currently, the agenda may exceed $7 trillion over 10 years before offsets. Lawmakers need to pay for new tax cuts/spending to avoid increasing deficits by a third. bipartisanpolicy.org/tcja-offsets/28 Jan 2025 13:31 +0000at://did:plc:prwhtgnry2d3bkpyyb4elkew/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgskvuq5dc2w