Writes the most popular UK Substack (samf.substack.com) Author of Sunday Times bestselling book "Failed State". (An Economist and Financial Times Book of the Year for 2024). Working on book two. Senior fellow: Institute for Governmenthttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mmcv2cwby22sCannot believe he hasn't been reshuffled yet. [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 May 2026 21:48 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmcv2cwby22shttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mmct6hc7gs2sThe problem with this analysis is that these policies have either been pursued by all PMs since 2010 (more taxes and more debt) or were u-turns (welfare and two child). Not a convincing case that he had a plan. [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 May 2026 21:14 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmct6hc7gs2shttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mmchmyi7uk2oExcited to be chairing a new national commission on how to help young people navigate current affairs in an increasingly complex world. www.currentaffairscommission.com https://www.currentaffairscommission.com/20 May 2026 17:48 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmchmyi7uk2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mmbvrwlys22sGiven 73% support being in the EU or single market they also, by definition, support a different immigration policy. [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 May 2026 12:28 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmbvrwlys22shttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mmbhsitddc2sNew post: Is Andy Burnham overrated? Why are the Tories so relaxed about their dire election results? Do the BBC give Farage an easy ride? Answering lots of your questions. (£/free trial) https://samf.substack.com/p/is-andy-burnham-overrated-why-are?r=72szy20 May 2026 08:18 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmbhsitddc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mmblq7rjhs2oWhy I think Burnham will win in Makerfield. [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 May 2026 09:28 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmblq7rjhs2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mmbhsitddc2sNew post: Is Andy Burnham overrated? Why are the Tories so relaxed about their dire election results? Do the BBC give Farage an easy ride? Answering lots of your questions. (£/free trial) https://samf.substack.com/p/is-andy-burnham-overrated-why-are?r=72szy20 May 2026 08:18 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mmbhsitddc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mma374wwwk2sLol. A few weeks ago I was giving feedback on some polling that involved a hypothetical where the govt did this and I said it wasn't realistic. Ffs. [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 May 2026 19:00 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mma374wwwk2shttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mm7zydbk6k2sFascinating that in multi-party systems the ceiling for radical right parties is always around 25-30%. [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 May 2026 18:38 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mm7zydbk6k2shttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mm5dfacpps2tAs I said he would last week. The idea that Burnham is some kind of reckless socialist is really quite baffling to anyone who's followed his career. [contains quote post or other embedded content]18 May 2026 16:48 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mm5dfacpps2thttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mm5335qzq22iIt must be true given overall polling support for rejoin that most leave constitiencies now have a rejoin majority. [contains quote post or other embedded content]18 May 2026 14:20 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mm5335qzq22ihttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlzwwmad3t2zNew post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social The narrative on the Ukraine war has shifted. There's still, though, an assumption that Putin can keep going because there won't be a decisive moment of defeat. But wars don't always work like that. (£/free trial) https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/putin-and-the-cliff-edge-fallacy?r=72szy&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web17 May 2026 08:27 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlzwwmad3t2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mm2yxuz5ec2bBelatedly watching the Night Manager - which is very good - but it is funny how even with an excellent all star cast Olivia Coleman still acts everyone else off the screen.17 May 2026 18:37 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mm2yxuz5ec2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlzwwmad3t2zNew post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social The narrative on the Ukraine war has shifted. There's still, though, an assumption that Putin can keep going because there won't be a decisive moment of defeat. But wars don't always work like that. (£/free trial) https://open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/putin-and-the-cliff-edge-fallacy?r=72szy&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web17 May 2026 08:27 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlzwwmad3t2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlyxcakpls2tBulgaria's most important geopolitical contribution.16 May 2026 23:01 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlyxcakpls2thttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlytewmhys2tI want this lady to do the election night programme and maybe do little clips on how different PR systems work.16 May 2026 21:51 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlytewmhys2thttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlymxr76nk2tAustralia have clearly broken the rules by entering a professionally produced song by someone who can sing.16 May 2026 19:56 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlymxr76nk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlyly7hzmk2tWhy have Albania entered a musical version of Freud's case studies?16 May 2026 19:39 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlyly7hzmk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlyltbdttk2tSo far this whole show has sounded like the free CD on the front of a 90s dance magazine.16 May 2026 19:36 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlyltbdttk2thttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlylbe6hz22tHow many marx will Sarah Engels get? #eurovision16 May 2026 19:26 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlylbe6hz22thttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlxidwamqt2tMy post on why prime ministers keep failing. And three big things that the next PM can change that will make their job easier. https://samf.substack.com/p/why-do-prime-ministers-keep-failing?r=72szy16 May 2026 09:01 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlxidwamqt2thttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mly4kq2qpn2oI wrote this in 2023 [contains quote post or other embedded content]16 May 2026 15:03 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mly4kq2qpn2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/samfr.bsky.social/post/3mlxu36ev3k2tRestore UK are standing in Makerfield which will help Burnham by pulling a few votes away from Reform. Will be an interesting test if how split the right vote is.16 May 2026 12:31 +0000at://did:plc:qougpda3f2sgfyco7qllxoeu/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlxu36ev3k2t