Professor at the Middlebury Institute, member of the National Academies Committee on International Security and Arms Control, and former member of the State Department's International Security Advisory Board.https://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mkswj7zrfc2mAn interesting wrinkle to @mgerrydoyle.bsky.socials story is that Dark Eagle can also range Moscow from Israel, Jordan and the Gulf. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-29/us-seeks-to-deploy-hypersonic-for-the-first-time-against-iran01 May 2026 20:06 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkswj7zrfc2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mkspojqu3k2mAll of this. [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 May 2026 18:04 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkspojqu3k2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjo327ilks2pObviously someone ran out of cocktails and Claude tokens. 😬17 Apr 2026 04:19 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjo327ilks2phttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjo2ycxp3s2pIran did not have a stockpile of highly enriched uranium until after Trump withdrew from the JCPOA because Iran was prohibited from doing so and under monitoring, Trump is the arsonist taking credit for putting out the fire he started. [contains quote post or other embedded content]17 Apr 2026 04:18 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjo2ycxp3s2phttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjo2jdatkk2pIran made the same statement when it acceded to the NPT, when Khamenei issued the beaten-to-death fatwa and when Zarif signed the JCPOA. We lacked trust, not promises.17 Apr 2026 04:09 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjo2jdatkk2phttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjnxeai4dc2nI am vibe-coding some missile modeling software on my phone from a Japanese-style listening bar in Oakland. Shit’s weird.17 Apr 2026 03:13 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjnxeai4dc2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjjtkfn3sc2uAIS has been off for almost 24 hours. [contains quote post or other embedded content]15 Apr 2026 11:54 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjjtkfn3sc2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjhx2mcr2k24Still stopped. [contains quote post or other embedded content]14 Apr 2026 17:51 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjhx2mcr2k24https://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjf75lxjvc2rWell, let’s see what happens.13 Apr 2026 15:38 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjf75lxjvc2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjctybih722fI told @trbrtc.bsky.social & @johnismay.bsky.social the missile involved in the strike that killed 21 civilians, including at least 5 children, appears to be ~15 feet long--closer to a PrSM than an Iranian cruise missile. This is how I made that estimate. https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1221623/it-really-looks-like-a-prsm/12 Apr 2026 17:13 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjctybih722fhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mjci7h4mos2rSo, let’s game this out. A Chinese flagged tanker pays the toll and transits the strait. We interdict it? What if the tanker is escorted by a Chinese warship?12 Apr 2026 13:42 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjci7h4mos2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3miyikxihcs2vMy experience watching Trump "negotiate" with Kim Jong Un was: Kim never offered to disarm, Pompeo would wishcast disarmament, lots of media would amplify, a couple of summits happened, but no deal emerged ... leaving Kim stronger than before. Maybe this time is different.08 Apr 2026 14:22 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3miyikxihcs2vhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3miw32qnyhc2nAgain, the football is not necessary. The code is only to authenticate his voice and the case just contains briefing materials. [contains quote post or other embedded content]07 Apr 2026 15:15 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3miw32qnyhc2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mivzxoqbxk2nI think what’s happening is that, for the first time in his life, Trump is being told “no.” Having dealt with people who have this particular personality disorder, there’s no obvious limit to what he’ll do to himself or others trying to avoid accepting it.07 Apr 2026 14:56 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mivzxoqbxk2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3miozh62jf222So, it's going to be Freedom Fries again, is it?04 Apr 2026 19:58 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3miozh62jf222https://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mioyjc4y5k22If the war were going well, the Administration would not be attempting to censor coverage of its progress. We don't need to see the satellite images; it's enough to know that the Administration doesn't want us to see them.04 Apr 2026 19:41 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mioyjc4y5k22https://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3mioswzyttc2uNo, it’s one KN-23 for 96 or 104 KTSSM launchers. Well, two KN-23s for reliability. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Apr 2026 18:01 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3mioswzyttc2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/armscontrolwonk.bsky.social/post/3miormpi7j22uNot if North Korea launches first, which is the problem. North and South Korea both plan to go first. One of them is wrong about that. [contains quote post or other embedded content]04 Apr 2026 17:38 +0000at://did:plc:qu4xxcvwtudykd3mbchawpz6/app.bsky.feed.post/3miormpi7j22u