Associate Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, Nuffield College, University of Oxford | Nuclear Weapons | Alliance Politics | Emerging Technology | Contact: lauren.sukin@politics.ox.ac.uk |https://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3mkmp5hibf22eHow effective is it when states claim they “didn’t do it”? Deniability is a common phenomenon in the gray zone. States can make aggression plausibly or implausibly deniable through combinations of transparent or obfuscating actors or means. In new research, we show how this affects escalation. 1/429 Apr 2026 08:38 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkmp5hibf22ehttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3mj7sk7xhs22mThe Trump administration—including by its recent criticism of NATO—has put US credibility under threat. A key question looking forward is: How recoverable might the US reputation be? (1/4)11 Apr 2026 12:09 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj7sk7xhs22mhttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3mhglyujvsk2oOur new (open access) paper investigates weapons aversion across systems. We comprehensively compare attitudes about the use of cyber, conventional, cluster, chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons, showing a clear preference hierarchy and lending insight into the underlying causes of aversion. [contains quote post or other embedded content]19 Mar 2026 18:11 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhglyujvsk2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3mghnd4xtr22xConsider applying to join Nuffield College and the Department of Politics and International Relations at Oxford as an associate professor in IR. This excellent post is for a non-tutorial fellowship (very little undergrad teaching). Please feel free to reach out with any questions. lnkd.in/eR6qBDNb. https://lnkd.in/eR6qBDNb07 Mar 2026 10:42 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3mghnd4xtr22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3mdkiblrsxc2hAre deterrence and disarmament compatible? In a new paper with @jluisrodriguez.com & @herzogsm.bsky.social, we question the common deterrence-disarmament divide. With a survey of nuclear attitudes, we show publics around the world simultaneously support both policies. tinyurl.com/5cbf76cx29 Jan 2026 09:34 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3mdkiblrsxc2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3m5egk6khpk2eDoes public opinion matter for nuclear policy? We say yes, in @ejisbisa.bsky.social. Whether the public backs nuclear use can sway leaders’ preferences and affects external perceptions of the credibility of deterrence. https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2025.1003111 Nov 2025 15:16 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3m5egk6khpk2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3lzlqmvhebk2mAt War on the Rocks, Gregory Winger, @drmagomez.bsky.social, and I show that, while the Trump administration has been supportive of U.S. Indo-Pacific partners in rhetoric, it has been neglectful of the personnel and mechanisms that sustain alliances. https://warontherocks.com/2025/09/washingtons-ironclad-commitments-are-rusting-in-the-indo-pacific/24 Sep 2025 15:24 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3lzlqmvhebk2mhttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3lypxjycf722tWARNING: An email account—“lauren.sukin.dr@hotmail.com”—has been created by the North Korean group Kimsuky to impersonate me. Please delete any emails you receive from this account. While it will soon be closed down, they are likely to create alternates.13 Sep 2025 14:13 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3lypxjycf722thttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3lupb7jlgh22aAs Washington turns the screws on trade policy and burden-sharing against even its closest allies, Gregory Winger, Miguel Alberto Gomez, and I have a new article out at Contemporary Security Policy on alliance dynamics and the willingness to aid partners during crises. Here are three key takeaways:24 Jul 2025 09:53 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3lupb7jlgh22ahttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3lqzu2nny4c2bSeoul wants the bomb, China and North Korea are piling up warheads. What role should U.S. nuclear weapons play in Asia? Sam Seitz and I tackle this question in a new article at the Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament. Read our open access article here: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/25751654.2025.251310207 Jun 2025 17:16 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3lqzu2nny4c2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/laurensukin.bsky.social/post/3kd24austzh2pHad a great conversation with APLN last night on managing US extended deterrence in East Asia. You know it was good when the conference ended at 1am and you’re still thinking about it when you wake up! I love it when my job is talking about interesting problems with interesting people.31 Oct 2023 10:24 +0000at://did:plc:rfth22bhs4imrvmrbjwhd3ag/app.bsky.feed.post/3kd24austzh2p