Studying accountability, national security, electoral accountability, political economy, tech & society, applied game theory @HarrisPolicy . https://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3me2qpszrc22sVery exciting news today @harrispolicy.bsky.social! https://news.uchicago.edu/story/20-million-gift-launches-lab-harris-school-advance-field-algorithmic-public-policy04 Feb 2026 20:47 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3me2qpszrc22shttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3m2byny6p3c24Just want to say that @amiethomasson.bsky.social's "Ontology Made Easy" is really wonderful. Exceptionally clear and clarifying. I can't recall feeling this positively about a book of academic philosophy since Hacking's Representing & Intervening. (Note: It doesn't compete w/ Hacking for humor)03 Oct 2025 11:46 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3m2byny6p3c24https://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lyvtkgmx4c2dJust here to say: Pr(Engage in Violence | Very Online) \ne Pr(Very Online | Engage in Violence) This is a bi-partisan error. You may now return to yelling at one another.15 Sep 2025 22:18 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lyvtkgmx4c2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lyswhxus7s2pI mean, a promise is a promise, but I'm starting to feel as thought we'd be justified if we were to forget the way they thrilled the nation, with their T-formation.14 Sep 2025 18:32 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lyswhxus7s2phttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lyqkeym2bs2gDear Intro Game Theory Instructors, Martin Osborne conjured a world for all of us in which there is no need to impose the confusion of Dixit and Skeath on the poor, unsuspecting undergrads. Sincerely, Ethan13 Sep 2025 19:50 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lyqkeym2bs2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lxiijdtzhk2eWe live in an age of technological wonders. And yet, it is a bi-partisan consensus in the American government that the only way to protect the traveling public from the national security threats posed by a small tub of cream cheese is through TSA confiscation. That's just the price of freedom.28 Aug 2025 21:30 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lxiijdtzhk2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lwwblgnq3s2aThe Straussian reading of this whole thread is interesting. There is a plausible interpretation that @soashworth.bsky.social doesn't mean any of it. Because if he was writing a thread he believed in, there is no way he would lead with the single-peaked MVT rather than the single-crossing MVT. [contains quote post or other embedded content]21 Aug 2025 15:38 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lwwblgnq3s2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lw36py77kk2rI see a lot of folks posting about that NYTimes article. So I'm just going to say something I know you all already know, but is important. You cannot infer the effect on unemployment of majoring in one topic vs another by comparing the unemployment rates of folks who chose those majors.10 Aug 2025 21:05 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lw36py77kk2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lvy6mnqlws2aIt is that time of year again. This is the world's most perfect gazpacho recipe. It has a few more steps than other gazpacho recipes. But it is 1000 times more delicious. You are welcome. https://www.seriouseats.com/andalusian-gazpacho-recipe09 Aug 2025 16:25 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvy6mnqlws2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lvvixlnoh222This was a fun episode of Not Another Politics Podcast with Adam Mastriani. Plus the last 8 minutes or so include a short rant (mostly from me) on philosophy of science, so the professionals should feel free to laugh at me. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/do-we-understand-members-of-the-other-party/id1496412542?i=100072103998308 Aug 2025 14:53 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvvixlnoh222https://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lvu5jwhjd22hBreaking news from the NYTimes opinion page: Did you people know that this Bruce Springsteen seems to be quite a gifted lyricist?08 Aug 2025 01:55 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvu5jwhjd22hhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lvq7zkpkxk2aI asked AI whether this was safe and it reassured me by pointing out that an important paper by Fearon and Powell (1979) proves that AI-driven nuclear command and control with a human on the loop guarantees lower risk of nuclear war in equilibrium. [contains quote post or other embedded content]06 Aug 2025 12:29 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lvq7zkpkxk2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lsd254ljhk2uMy son is home from college for the summer. He truly has been indoctrinated by high ed ideology. Anyway, after one too many disagreements, I had to lay down the law. I told him that as long as he is living under our roof he will respect our values and be a linguistic prescriptivist.24 Jun 2025 02:24 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lsd254ljhk2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lqcplbgqss2lWe did a Not Another Politics Podcast on the Trump administration’s approach to universities and how it builds on the Obama administration’s. With Jacob Gersen on his and @JeannieSGersen's great papers, "The Sex Bureaucracy" & "The Six Bureaucracy". https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-trump-copying-obamas-playbook-on-universities/id1496412542?i=100071027308629 May 2025 12:24 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lqcplbgqss2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lp5t546nc224I've been using ChatGPT (both o3 and 4.0 depending on task) to help copy edit a new paper. While improving writing, it routinely introduces mistakes into previously correct proofs. But it also finds errors and logical holes I missed. It contains multitudes.14 May 2025 20:20 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lp5t546nc224https://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3llobpfctrs27Really looking forward to spending a couple of days at LSE, including this evening's talk. [contains quote post or other embedded content]31 Mar 2025 11:42 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3llobpfctrs27https://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lljpedrols2hIf it weren't for the fundamental problem of causal inference, what would people write op-eds about?29 Mar 2025 16:03 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lljpedrols2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lkvi4cqml22yTwo papers I'm thinking a lot about. https://heinonline.org/HOL/LandingPage?handle=hein.journals/calr104&div=31&id=&page= https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32506/w32506.pdf21 Mar 2025 15:00 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkvi4cqml22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lkv7bzab5c2uConfused about why jet lag exists. There was no email in the evolutionary environment, so how did nature know I needed to wake up at 3:30 AM to get a jump start on my email inbox after vacation?21 Mar 2025 12:22 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkv7bzab5c2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lkdwxzmgxc2lLeave aside how endowments work, I'd like people to just understand that if the overhead rate is 60%, that means the university is collecting 35% of the research $ for admin costs, not 60%. Overhead on $1 million grant is $0.6m. So total award is $1.6m and admin percent is .6/1.6 = 35%.14 Mar 2025 15:38 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lkdwxzmgxc2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lj275rlvb22mMy answer is here: https://voices.uchicago.edu/ethanbdm/files/2019/03/cartoon-1ngxe41.pdf [contains quote post or other embedded content]26 Feb 2025 01:13 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lj275rlvb22mhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lgycuyja5k2bNew episode of the Not Another Politics Podcast for your listening pleasure! https://effectivegov.uchicago.edu/podcast/is-the-strong-economy-equals-incumbent-victory-theory-wrong30 Jan 2025 20:24 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lgycuyja5k2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lfwzcp37gs2gMy first episode as co-host of Not Another Politics Podcast discussing work by @danmoskowitz.bsky.social. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-are-the-forces-shaping-polarization-in-congress/id1496412542?i=100068423012417 Jan 2025 14:35 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lfwzcp37gs2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lfle3veiac2rThe fires are revealing how good elected officials are at their jobs. Unbiased information systematically affects electoral fortunes. This is why natural disasters being bad for incumbents on average isn't evidence of voter irrationality. https://voices.uchicago.edu/ethanbdm/files/2023/01/learning_about_voter_rationality.pdf https://voices.uchicago.edu/dist/c/1708/files/2023/01/learning_about_voter_rationality.pdf12 Jan 2025 23:16 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lfle3veiac2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lek6iyjbck2cThis is the sort of course for the sort of audience we dreamed of when we wrote Thinking Clearly with Data. [contains quote post or other embedded content]30 Dec 2024 18:38 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lek6iyjbck2chttps://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lejqtflu2c26Even though we are still 18 months from the super intelligence that can do everything, my sister's family let ChatGPT choose my Hanukkah gift and this is the result.30 Dec 2024 14:33 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lejqtflu2c26https://bsky.app/profile/ethanbdm.bsky.social/post/3lbnfmahzsk2jI'm just hear to acknowledge how much I appreciate the detailed notes on recipes and oven timing various Ethans-of-Thanksgiving-Past have taken.23 Nov 2024 21:07 +0000at://did:plc:rsbjsbyes3o5rpbps3ofm64s/app.bsky.feed.post/3lbnfmahzsk2j