political philosopher, Central European Universityhttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mlom6eloz22jI keep telling people around me that it is not going to be a permanent street party. But so far, it sort of is… If you still hear me saying this six months from now, I should probably stop. [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 May 2026 20:16 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlom6eloz22jhttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mkrvtnx6722qBy way of illustration, fascinating report from a village of 220 (mostly Roma) inhabitants in Northeast Hungary where Fidesz went from 82% in '22 to 24% in '26. A gift link, but you should support independent HU media, they are doing great work! https://444.hu/2026/05/01/82-szazalekos-fideszbol-71-szazalekos-tisza-fenekestul-forgatta-fel-a-felsogagyiak-partpreferenciait-a-falubuszaffer?gift=eyJjb250ZW50RmluZ2VycHJpbnQiOiI2YmIyYzBlNTBmZTliMDUwMmI5NjIwNTFkOWUxYjIwMDRhMzk4MjAzMTQ4Yjg1NjUwZDcwN2QzMzU4MWM2MmViIiwidmFsdWUiOiIwNzkyYjU2NzE4ODljNzc3NGQ2NWU0NjE2NWYwN2M3ZCJ9 [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 May 2026 10:21 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkrvtnx6722qhttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mk6ttiqewk2hWith the full results finally in hand, we can draw a fuller picture of the scale of Orbán's devastating defeat. First, a seemingly technical detail: in most media accounts, you will see the final tally to be 53.2 (Tisza) vs 38.6 (Fidesz). But that is misleading! That count includes mail ballots ... [contains quote post or other embedded content]23 Apr 2026 20:25 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk6ttiqewk2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjj6ec5zyc2oSame [contains quote post or other embedded content]15 Apr 2026 05:35 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjj6ec5zyc2ohttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjgefhv7zk2pThe coolest city in the world in its moment of pure joy. As one reporter wrote, the most telling thing about the crowd was that most people barely bothered to even mention Fidesz. Emotionally, it is as if they have already moved on. Ofc, that won't be so easy, but it was nice to see. [contains quote post or other embedded content]14 Apr 2026 02:45 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjgefhv7zk2phttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjeuq6bpyc2xFIFA [contains quote post or other embedded content]13 Apr 2026 12:32 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjeuq6bpyc2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjdzgbifp22mFor years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread... [contains quote post or other embedded content]13 Apr 2026 04:23 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjdzgbifp22mhttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjdfyyuqoc2gWhat a night [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 22:36 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjdfyyuqoc2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjdeya4xlk2wThat would be Peter Molnar [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 22:17 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjdeya4xlk2whttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjddqq7esc2aIt's weird that all these accounts I follow for other reasons (US politics, international politics, UK, etc.) are posting about Hungary. You gotta give it to Orban, he made HU "interesting" -- in a bad way. I am looking forward to HU going back being an obscure, boring, normal country.12 Apr 2026 21:55 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjddqq7esc2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjd2tbipfc2gAnd the unexpected: Orban calls Magyar, concedes. Wow.12 Apr 2026 19:16 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjd2tbipfc2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjd2p5enk22gNow we know [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 19:13 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjd2p5enk22ghttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjctnpdxdk2aAt 18:30, turnout is at 77.8%, a stunning record. There will be no update for a while, but the final number will be just short of 80% or just over. As @palmapolyak.bsky.social wrote, what we saw is either a brutally effective autocratic mobilization or an uprising against autocracy. We find out soon [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 17:07 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjctnpdxdk2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjcq7der5k2gImportant to keep in mind: no votes have been counted yet. [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 16:05 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjcq7der5k2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjcpq4laok2gAnd at 17h with turnout at 74%, the record is broken with two hours to go until polls close. The dynamics has slowed, though. Final turnout more likely to be around 80% than 82-83%. [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 15:57 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjcpq4laok2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjchtmidyc24At 15h, turnout is at 66%. At this pace, the record will be broken by 17h, the next update. 82-83% final turnout is not unthinkable now. Note, however, that not a single vote has been counted yet, and those who know better than me worn against making inferences from turnout data. [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 13:36 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjchtmidyc24https://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjcc6cpmec2gTruly insane turnout. Something unimaginable has to happen in the afternoon for overall turnout not to break the record. 80% is now imaginable. Perhaps people were not lying when 80+% told pollsters they are certain to vote, yet we dismissed those numbers as unrealistic. [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 11:54 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjcc6cpmec2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjbv6vfczs2aStill record level. At this rate, 75% final turnout would not be surprising. [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 08:02 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjbv6vfczs2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mjbrcvig7s2pInsane early turnout. But it is very early. [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 Apr 2026 06:53 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjbrcvig7s2phttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mj4wkovv6c2xI could not resist to write a thread on the HU elections this Sunday. All the non-Orbán-aligned polls show a sizable lead for the main opposition, Tisza, ranging from the very high single digits to over 20%. What's more, by most account, the lead has been increasing in the last three weeks.10 Apr 2026 08:43 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj4wkovv6c2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mhqmaxt3v22kIf you read only one piece about the HU elections on April 12, it should be this one by @palmapolyak.bsky.social. Each of her points on caution are well-taken, and yet I am a bit more hopeful. Why? Because many of the regime advantages are already baked in the polls, and yet they show Magyar ahead. [contains quote post or other embedded content]23 Mar 2026 17:42 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhqmaxt3v22khttps://bsky.app/profile/zmiklosi.bsky.social/post/3mho55xiobs25Good thread on the upcoming HU elections. I agree with most of the points made. Gerrymander/malapportoinment is the biggest factor. It is estimated to give Orbán a 3-4% edge, meaning he can win a majority of seats even if he loses the popular vote by that margin. If he is down by 7-8%, he is toast. [contains quote post or other embedded content]22 Mar 2026 18:06 +0000at://did:plc:sfx54afihnoucb75vxazprva/app.bsky.feed.post/3mho55xiobs25