Writing about the California economy for The Wall Street Journal. Currently based in Los Angeles. Previously CDMX, São Paulo, Rio, and DC. Tips to paul.kiernan@wsj.com or Signal/WhatsApp +1-202-808-4258 https://www.wsj.com/news/author/paul-kiernanhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mlevlbkr422hCampaign Staffer Becomes Thousandaire https://www.npr.org/2026/05/07/nx-s1-5795891/prediction-markets-kalshi-polymarket-campaigns08 May 2026 23:37 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlevlbkr422hhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mle2k254cc27New LA metro stop, fresh out the kitchen. “Getting Angelenos out of their cars and onto mass transit will likely be a challenge, and experts say the D Line could be a major test of whether adding rail in prime real estate can change behavior,” LA Times writes. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-05-08/wilshire-subway-should-be-slam-dunk-for-la-but-luring-riders-may-be-challenge08 May 2026 15:33 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mle2k254cc27https://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mkyuxrj47k2n“You’re going to find that the easiest money is going to be in sports,” professional poker player Michael Boss said. “Sports has the attention of all the sick young men, I guess.” By “sick,” he clarified, he meant gambling addicts. https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/polymarket-kalshi-betting-profits-prediction-markets-eb23ac11?st=zG4Bdm&reflink=article_copyURL_share04 May 2026 04:54 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkyuxrj47k2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mkr6srrtes26“This is a warning. We know you live right here.” Federal agents nationwide can access your personal data, including communications and daily travels in America’s new surveillance dragnet. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/immigration-ice-arrests-surveillance-6f1cef64?st=m8RfDK&reflink=article_copyURL_share01 May 2026 03:29 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkr6srrtes26https://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mkq3gejm7c2zThe government becomes more sensitive to interest rates as debt grows. One in seven dollars of federal spending now goes to interest. A 0.1 percentage-point interest-rate increase would cost $379 billion over 10 years, according to the CBO.  https://www.wsj.com/economy/u-s-debt-tops-100-of-gdp-81c013d7?st=wM7AGu&reflink=article_copyURL_share30 Apr 2026 16:56 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkq3gejm7c2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mkndyobej22vHaving largely abandoned budget cars years ago, Detroit’s Big Three now rely heavily on expensive SUVs and pickup trucks that deliver fatter profits. Now their continued existence depends entirely on trade barriers to keep superior Chinese cars out of the U.S. https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/chinese-cars-byd-geely-u-s-mexico-be0dea28?st=c5zcBw&reflink=article_copyURL_share29 Apr 2026 14:51 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkndyobej22vhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mkmcggylb22qCongo isn't the only African country with which the Trump administration has brokered deportation deals. Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and Eswatini are among several countries that have also agreed to take in U.S. deportees from Latin America and elsewhere. https://www.npr.org/2026/04/28/nx-s1-5798775/drc-latin-america-deportees-asylum-migration29 Apr 2026 04:51 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkmcggylb22qhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mkgibbq7y22oCalifornia’s billionaire tax has the signatures to make the November ballot, backers say. They claim to have collected more than 1.5 million (875k need to be valid to qualify the initiative). https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/californias-billionaire-tax-has-the-signatures-to-make-the-ballot-backers-say-1c2da7bb?st=sTQ1dZ&reflink=article_copyURL_share26 Apr 2026 21:19 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkgibbq7y22ohttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mk75tqxwc22fU.S. authorities charged an Army soldier who took part in the mission to capture Nicolás Maduro with using classified information to reap profits from bets on the former Venezuelan leader’s ouster  https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-soldier-in-maduro-raid-is-charged-with-making-bets-on-leaders-ouster-535caf49?st=P4HQ4V&reflink=article_copyURL_share23 Apr 2026 23:24 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk75tqxwc22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mk4ba7gw5s2sFewer immigrants mean more jobs and higher wages for American workers, right? The data tell a different story. https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/immigration-crackdown-labor-market-fcfed2d6?mod=hp_lead_pos1022 Apr 2026 19:47 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mk4ba7gw5s2shttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mjhoanxq7222“These are times that we see very rarely,” IMF chief economist Gourinchas said. “You could have all of these things piling up in an environment in which growth was OK but not turbocharged to start with.” https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/imf-warns-of-deep-global-downturn-if-war-is-prolonged-79e6ce11?st=eLi36F&reflink=article_copyURL_share14 Apr 2026 15:14 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjhoanxq7222https://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mjfyj54luc2tLA Unified School District’s education spending rose to $29,292 per student in 2024-25 from $11,750 in 2014-15. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/los-angeles-scrambles-to-avoid-historic-schools-strike-2b311525?st=K914NE&reflink=article_copyURL_share13 Apr 2026 23:12 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjfyj54luc2thttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mjfan7olwk2ePresident Trump’s naval blockade of Iran risks further upending a global economy already battered by weeks of war https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/iran-wars-economic-shock-wave-is-expected-to-get-even-bigger-3aadf870?st=aTU3ub&reflink=article_copyURL_share13 Apr 2026 16:05 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjfan7olwk2ehttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mje5fwjoqs26Audits of people with at least $10 million in income dropped 9% last year, and they are on track to decline another 39% this year. “They have defunded the police,” a tax lawyer Matthew Rappaport says. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/irs-staffing-tax-enforcement-1a18e33f?st=jYCSWL&reflink=article_copyURL_share13 Apr 2026 05:34 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mje5fwjoqs26https://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mizths7jvs2lSafety hack for biking in LA: Jump out in front of a Waymo, take up the whole lane, and make it shield you from the bloodthirsty humans.09 Apr 2026 03:10 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mizths7jvs2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3miuvbcracs22As a veteran assistant U.S. attorney, passed over for promotions repeatedly in his 24-year career, Keenan was still handling low-level cases typically reserved for first-year federal prosecutors. But his fortunes have flipped. https://www.wsj.com/us-news/law/prosecutor-justice-department-trump-79bc6772?st=fFDJUY&reflink=article_copyURL_share07 Apr 2026 03:59 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3miuvbcracs22https://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mijxmsrngk2uStarbucks will expand tipping for U.S. baristas but says it will not automatically extend these new benefits to ~600 stores that have voted to unionize. Starbucks Workers United has accused the company of slow-walking contract negotiations since 2021. https://www.wsj.com/business/hospitality/starbucks-barista-pay-tips-ede5ffbb?st=HvvCpH&reflink=article_copyURL_share02 Apr 2026 19:42 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mijxmsrngk2uhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mift64lgos2bRising sea levels pose a threat to island nations and coastal communities. A parallel danger lurks in high mountain areas, where melting glaciers have created thousands of new lakes. Between 1990 and 2018, the volume of the world’s glacial lakes expanded by nearly 50%. https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/how-a-tsunami-was-unleashed-at-17-000-feet-shattering-lives-below-01e18c99?st=tFscN5&reflink=article_copyURL_share01 Apr 2026 04:11 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mift64lgos2bhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3micaj44pyk2zHollywood studios are making significantly fewer movies and TV shows, resulting in a 30% drop in the industry’s employment from a late-2022 peak https://www.wsj.com/business/media/see-how-hollywoods-job-market-is-collapsing-230be437?st=pMisVg&reflink=article_copyURL_share30 Mar 2026 17:59 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3micaj44pyk2zhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mibvynoadk2a“He is a public official who should not be in the business of promoting a private interest of his own or other private interests, regardless of pay,” said congressional ethics advocate Meredith McGehee, referring to Swalwell. https://www.notus.org/democrats/democrats-eric-swalwell-political-ai-startup-findraiser-pitch-lawmakers30 Mar 2026 14:51 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mibvynoadk2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3miasqp5v222uThe involvement of so many Castros in the regime’s survival strategy underscores one of the Cuban Revolution’s contradictions: While its Communist leaders sought to create an egalitarian society, many of them become members of an elite class. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/28/world/americas/castro-family-cuba-energy-crisis-trump.html?smid=bs-share30 Mar 2026 04:20 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3miasqp5v222uhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mi4z4aa4cs2iUnited Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said this week that his company could face an $11-billion loss if oil prices remain at their current levels. Meanwhile, United’s airfare could increase by 20%, he said. https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2026-03-28/as-oil-prices-rise-airfares-are-surging-some-airlines-might-not-survive28 Mar 2026 16:04 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mi4z4aa4cs2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mhvgilx6cs2lThe ‘crypto kids’ of Los Angeles: Easy money, risky lives and a violent fallout https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-03-24/los-angeles-crypto-kids-trial25 Mar 2026 15:42 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhvgilx6cs2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mhtw3grgrc2sA Karen Bass spox said that the mayor “can’t participate in every debate invitation” but is “eager to discuss her record of changing L.A. and her vision for the future of Los Angeles." The spox did not answer follow-up questions about the reason for Bass’ absence. https://laist.com/transportation/la-mayoral-debate?utm_campaign=20260324+LA+Report+PM&utm_medium=email&utm_source=sfmc_&utm_content=&utm_term=29115087625 Mar 2026 01:16 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhtw3grgrc2shttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mhsy7cyybc2iU.S. spouses and children are caught up in the effects of President Trump’s mass deportations, which are pushing some families into financial ruin https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-deportation-push-takes-an-economic-toll-on-mixed-status-families-20dc3798?st=sRZCyN&reflink=article_copyURL_share24 Mar 2026 16:21 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhsy7cyybc2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mhlfdaf74k2rHomeless and stateless: Deportees from U.S. are trapped in Mexico. “This feels like a nightmare, and I can’t wake up,” says one woman. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2026-03-21/mexico-deportations21 Mar 2026 15:54 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhlfdaf74k2rhttps://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mhivze3fqs22Outside groups are urging ICE to carry out a minimum of 1m deportations in 2026, the goal Stephen Miller publicly set for 2025 but that the administration didn’t come close to achieving. On the campaign trail, Trump suggested he would deport as many as 20 million people. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-told-inner-circle-some-mass-deportation-policies-went-too-far-01518550?st=69XMbN&reflink=article_copyURL_share20 Mar 2026 16:15 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhivze3fqs22https://bsky.app/profile/pkwsj.bsky.social/post/3mhgmbc7r3c2tMy alma mater #UNC has spent $1.3 million since ‘22 on “studies” about whether to build a new, $600-$800 million basketball arena that would seat 25% fewer fans than the perfectly functional Dean Smith Center. How about spending that money on professors and students? https://www.unc.edu/posts/2026/03/04/smith-center-evolution-discussions-continue-as-3-top-contenders-emerge/19 Mar 2026 18:15 +0000at://did:plc:tj2m5kfmhe2plmkjrcvpl4up/app.bsky.feed.post/3mhgmbc7r3c2t