Chief Economics Correspondent for The New York Times. Adjunct at CUNY Newmark. Ex: FiveThirtyEight, WSJ. He/him. Email: ben.casselman@nytimes.com Signal: @bencasselman.96 📸: Earl Wilson/NYT https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3ml4l3xrakc23Meanwhile, if A.I. does begin causing widespread job losses, the safety net isn't ready, as @tonyromm.bsky.social and I explored in our latest story. 🧵 to follow 🎁🔗: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/05/business/artificial-intelligence-safety-net.html?unlocked_article_code=1.gFA.whOE.B3dGIy7FGoGj&smid=url-share #EconSky [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 16:08 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4l3xrakc23https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3ml4hxk727k23Not doing a full-blown JOLTS thread today. But a couple quick charts related to the ongoing A.I. layoffs debate. #NumbersDay #EconSky [contains quote post or other embedded content]05 May 2026 15:12 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4hxk727k23https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3ml4e3cpyes23JOLTS: Openings flat, hires up but layoffs also up slightly. Certainly no major sign of erosion, but also no major break from "low-hire, low-fire" stasis. Data: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm #NumbersDay05 May 2026 14:03 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml4e3cpyes23https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mksi4fiakc25While we're on the subject of inflation measurement: @usbls.bsky.social just released a background paper outlining the options for dealing with the missing Consumer Expenditure Survey data from the period of the shutdown. https://www.bls.gov/cpi/additional-resources/handling-missing-2025-CE-data.htm #EconSky [contains quote post or other embedded content]01 May 2026 15:48 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mksi4fiakc25https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mkpzf23nr22yUpdate on the legal services inflation drama! This will be a bit of a wonky thread, but the bottom line is that a lot of people are breathing a sigh of relief about how BEA handled this morning's data. #EconSky #NumbersDay [contains quote post or other embedded content]30 Apr 2026 16:20 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkpzf23nr22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mkpoimx3422yOK, gobs of data this morning, and no way I'm going to get to all of it, but a few 📈📉 on the highlights... [contains quote post or other embedded content]30 Apr 2026 13:05 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkpoimx3422yhttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mkpmtepoc22yThursday a.m. data: Q1 GDP: +2.0% Q1 final private demand: +2.5% March consumer prices: +0.7% m/m, +3.5% y/y March core prices: +0.3% m/m, +3.2% y/y Q1 ECI: +0.9% q/q, +3.4% y/y More analysis to come once I get to digest it all a bit. #NumbersDay30 Apr 2026 12:35 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkpmtepoc22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mknqppof4c2aPowell is staying, for now: “Afer my term as chair ends on May 15th, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined. I intend to keep a low profile.” [contains quote post or other embedded content]29 Apr 2026 18:39 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mknqppof4c2ahttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mknokulsz22aThe Federal Reserve held interest rates steady for a third straight meeting, as widely expected. It is likely to be Jerome Powell's final meeting as chair. Statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm Full coverage: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/29/business/federal-reserve-interest-rates #EconSky29 Apr 2026 18:01 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mknokulsz22ahttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mjzkji7t7s2gTo me, the most interesting thing in today's Warsh hearing wasn't about Warsh at all. It was about the disagreements within the GOP about A.I.21 Apr 2026 17:55 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjzkji7t7s2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mjxjqvuxzk25Just saying, I think you should get credit for “purple first” if you pick the hardest category, even if it’s not technically purple.20 Apr 2026 22:36 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjxjqvuxzk25https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mjxgqbhlck2gUpdate: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/us/politics/lori-chavez-deremer-labor-secretary-steps-down.html [contains quote post or other embedded content]20 Apr 2026 21:42 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjxgqbhlck2ghttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mjkueer7md22Tariffs? Inflation? War? For all the turmoil in recent years, nothing has stopped U.S. corporations from earning record profits. There's little reason to think the latest energy shock will be any different. Smart story from @talsmith.bsky.social: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/business/economy/companies-profits-prices-iran-war.html?unlocked_article_code=1.bFA.Uu2D.HFKsML4xOo_s&smid=url-share15 Apr 2026 21:41 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjkueer7md22https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mjkqx4enx322Sounds like things are going well over at the Department of Labor. Incredible reporting from Rebecca Davis O'Brien: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/15/us/politics/labor-secretary-text-messages.html?unlocked_article_code=1.bFA.w7uJ.iplIjCf-bEwA&smid=url-share15 Apr 2026 20:40 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mjkqx4enx322https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mj5em3wq3322Consumer prices were up 3.3% in March, the fastest inflation rate of Trump's second term. The jump was driven almost entirely by higher energy prices, the direct result of the war with Iran. #NumbersDay [contains quote post or other embedded content]10 Apr 2026 12:55 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj5em3wq3322https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mj5ddutmrd22U.S. consumer prices rose 0.9 percent in March, driven by a nearly 11 percent jump in energy costs. Overall prices were up 3.3 percent from a year earlier. "Core" prices, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, were up 0.2 percent month/month, and 2.6 percent year/year. #NumbersDay10 Apr 2026 12:32 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj5ddutmrd22https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mj2xfujged22Update on the PCE legal services drama from last month: BEA says it went back to using CPI data for the February CPI, after using PPI to adjust the data in January. It also released an FAQ that addresses the decision (though not in much detail): www.bea.gov/help/faq/1486 https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/148609 Apr 2026 13:53 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj2xfujged22https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mj2tx5dpjd22Inflation was looking like a problem even before the war. On a three-month annualized basis, PCE (both headline and core) topped 4% in February. Year-over-year core PCE is up 3%. And now the war will push prices higher. #NumbersDay More from @colbylsmith.bsky.social: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/09/business/federal-reserve-inflation.html [contains quote post or other embedded content]09 Apr 2026 12:51 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj2tx5dpjd22https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mj2tbnl35l22Thursday morning econ data: Inflation up, income down and consumer spending soft in February (and that's *before* the impact of the war). And GDP was even weaker at the end of last year than previously known. #NumbersDay #EconSky09 Apr 2026 12:39 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mj2tbnl35l22https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3miz6lp7cfc22OK, time for a game! These charts show employment for a selection of detailed industries (4-digit NAICS) vs their prepandemic (2012-2019) trend. Which ones, if any, seem to show the effect of AI? (Chat GPT launch shown for reference.) I'll post a version with industry labels in a bit. #EconSky08 Apr 2026 20:56 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3miz6lp7cfc22https://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3miyjqcxjgc2fEven if the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens (and stays that way), it will take time for the flow of energy to return to normal. Smart story from @rfelliott.bsky.social: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/08/business/energy-environment/iran-war-oil-gas-prices-energy.html08 Apr 2026 14:43 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3miyjqcxjgc2fhttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mimn4xy7kt2nSo on the same day that BLS reported the lowest household survey response rate on record, the White House is proposing further budget cuts. Pretty much every economist that I've talked to says that we should be investing more money in the statistical system right now, not less. [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Apr 2026 21:12 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mimn4xy7kt2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/bencasselman.bsky.social/post/3mimg75dqq32nCouple quick charts re: data reliability. First, revisions: Recent revisions have been consistently downward (although note that January was revised UP). The scale of the revisions isn't unprecedented, but they have been quite large. #EconSky #NumbersDay [contains quote post or other embedded content]03 Apr 2026 19:08 +0000at://did:plc:tktyhvgeo3nqluw4wpdjzqgo/app.bsky.feed.post/3mimg75dqq32n