Managing Director, Europe and co-head of London office, Eurasia Group. Formerly HM Treasury and European Commission. Senior Research Fellow, LSE European Institute. ECFR Council Member. My views. Seeking analytical truth https://www.eurasiagroup.nethttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.socialhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mltbgljfj22pSimons is not a leftie. Was Starmer ally until very recently. Starmer no longer has the political authority to block Burnham on the NEC - it’s gone. Burnham now bookies’ favourite to be next PM as I've long argued to @eurasiagroup.net clients - it was Rayner earlier today14 May 2026 16:47 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mltbgljfj22phttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlsksi3jns2lWhat a shitshow14 May 2026 10:02 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlsksi3jns2lhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlpyli2trk2d🇬🇧‼️ Bond markets are back to following UK politics headline by headline, with every 10% shift in Starmer's odds worth 6bps on 30yr bond yields13 May 2026 09:30 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlpyli2trk2dhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlo7pzff4s2iFour ministers out - Zubir Ahmed, health minister, in Streeting’s ministerial team. 86 Lab MPs have called for Starmer to go. Counter letter signed by 103 loyalist MPs saying he should stay. Still waiting for Wes to challenge Starmer and/or Burnham to announce by-election seat 1/2 [contains quote post or other embedded content]12 May 2026 16:33 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlo7pzff4s2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlnsvgjnvs2iMorning in Paris hosting an event with former French PM Manuel Vals, and afternoon in Bxl, where I'll be spending a few days speaking with senior EU officials about many issues, not least Keir Starmer's likely replacement and what that means for the UK/EU reset & future relations12 May 2026 12:43 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnsvgjnvs2ihttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlnk3jee3c2xEurope is finally standing up to Trump. Because of the geopolitical vandalism the Administration is committing in Iran & over Greenland. And because the US has less leverage over Europe & Ukraine than it did a year ago. It's about time. Me for @theguardian.com https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/12/friedrich-merz-europe-leaders-standing-up-to-trump12 May 2026 10:06 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnk3jee3c2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlnqa4is2k2pBig one. Jess Phillips, a Home Office minister, has quit. Blow for Starmer. Phillips widely respected as minister for safeguarding.12 May 2026 11:56 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnqa4is2k2phttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlnk3jee3c2xEurope is finally standing up to Trump. Because of the geopolitical vandalism the Administration is committing in Iran & over Greenland. And because the US has less leverage over Europe & Ukraine than it did a year ago. It's about time. Me for @theguardian.com https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2026/may/12/friedrich-merz-europe-leaders-standing-up-to-trump12 May 2026 10:06 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnk3jee3c2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlnjb6kpr22xParade of loyalist ministers as they leave cabinet meeting. Brief words to TV cameras outside no 10. The line: they and Starmer are getting on with the job. Unprecedented after cabinet meeting. Attempted fightback. I doubt it will work12 May 2026 09:51 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnjb6kpr22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlnfyowul22xStarmer digging in: told cabinet at start he is carrying on & cabinet must get on with job. He said no (formal) leadership challenge had been made. Meaning: over to you, Streeting. Put up or shut your people up. More resignations expected soon12 May 2026 08:52 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnfyowul22xhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlnfv4xhrk2xStarmer had an opportunity to be strategic with the EU in 2024 with his landslide majority. He had another opportunity this year, given the total geopolitical madness of the Trump Administration. He's squandered both. Let's hope his successor will be braver and go further12 May 2026 08:50 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnfv4xhrk2xhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlnapon24s2hSenior Labour figures are very nervous about the market reaction this morning, hence some in the Cabinet pushing the PM to go in a way that doesn't destabilise the party. Does Starmer say something after Cabinet today? Does Streeting make a move? Feels like something may move12 May 2026 07:18 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlnapon24s2hhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlm3sjy3pk23Rejoining the Customs Union and/or Single Market If Starmer had uttered those words today, he'd be in a slightly better place with his party, the public, the Europeans and the markets Instead he's in an inferior position with all of them11 May 2026 20:17 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlm3sjy3pk23https://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlkz55r6z22ySo overall, only crumbs on the EU in Starmer's speech. Disappointing and the Europeans will be disappointed. There's a big opportunity with the EU given Trump 2.0 and Europeans diversifying their own relationships, but Starmer refuses to grab it11 May 2026 09:57 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlkz55r6z22yhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlkyxsnlbs2yAsked whether he would rule out next manifesto incl SM & CU Starmer says he wants next summit to be “big leap forward” on trade, the economy, defence & security. “That will then be a platform on which we can build as we go forward.” A hint SM & CU could be the direction of travel [contains quote post or other embedded content]11 May 2026 09:54 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlkyxsnlbs2yhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlky2j2sg22fSo Starmer's big Europe offer is an ambitious youth experience scheme. That's what he wants to be at the heart of the UK's new relationship with the EU. That's it? Is this a joke?11 May 2026 09:38 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlky2j2sg22fhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlkpoq427c23Back in Paris this AM & Brussels later this week to test French & European reaction to PM Keir Starmer reset/EU speech today. The EU is paying attention. But unless Starmer moves off cakeism (more SM within existing red lines) the EU is more likely to stay put to see if he survives11 May 2026 07:08 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlkpoq427c23https://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlkpoq427c23Back in Paris this AM & Brussels later this week to test French & European reaction to PM Keir Starmer reset/EU speech today. The EU is paying attention. But unless Starmer moves off cakeism (more SM within existing red lines) the EU is more likely to stay put to see if he survives11 May 2026 07:08 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlkpoq427c23https://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mljhvjbvoc2cPressure clearly building on Starmer ahead of his reset/EU speech tomorrow. Might he go this far? “I intend to negotiate a deal to take Britain back into the SM (and/or CU) and put that in the next Labour manifesto.” The 2029 election would then become a referendum on this deal10 May 2026 19:16 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mljhvjbvoc2chttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlg72y73kk2wOn Reeves and Harman: Won’t move the internal Labour markets which are selling Starmer. GB respected in Labour & around the world for saving global economy in 2008 financial crisis. As with Harman’s appointment, it feels more like an attempt to reassure the Labour Party than anything else 1/209 May 2026 12:00 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlg72y73kk2whttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlehdue76s2qExceptional political trolling from Zelenskyy by issuing a decree claiming he is authorising the 9 May parade in Moscow to go ahead (by agreeing to this 3 day ceasefire) Very good 🇺🇦 https://www.ft.com/content/7e9cb5d9-277e-43ba-9ba1-5f45f3bef7f9?syn-25a6b1a6=108 May 2026 19:23 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlehdue76s2qhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mlecwtkjss2n🇪🇺🇬🇧 Big, big debate has now taken off inside Labour on the back off disastrous election results over whether it should use the new world of the Iran war & Donald Trump to justify breaking its 2024 manifesto commitments - in particular rejoining the Single Market & Customs Union08 May 2026 18:04 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mlecwtkjss2nhttps://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3ml7ftoyphs22What does more single market alignment while red lines remain even mean? Given there's a significant chance Starmer will be removed, and many of his successors prefer a customs union, there doesn't seem to be a settled or credible position from HMG the EU can engage with - yet06 May 2026 19:12 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3ml7ftoyphs22https://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mkslnlkmhc26Thanks Donald Trump for blowing up my vacation and bank holiday.. again01 May 2026 16:52 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkslnlkmhc26https://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mkqd4falc226There's TACO, FAFO, and now apparently NACHO. Not a Chance Hormuz Opens. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/30/donald-trump-nacho-acronym-meaning/89870212007/30 Apr 2026 19:14 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkqd4falc226https://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mknafrqcy226Imagine a French-speaking Trump though. Or, better, Macron in the Maison Blanche29 Apr 2026 13:47 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mknafrqcy226https://bsky.app/profile/mijrahman.bsky.social/post/3mkidpbuvps26Poland's success is closely intertwined with its EU membership. This isn't complicated [contains quote post or other embedded content]27 Apr 2026 15:03 +0000at://did:plc:ubocpvxptoiknvm53d3q2uqp/app.bsky.feed.post/3mkidpbuvps26